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Of course this whole thing is somewhat missing my main point anyway which was as I repeated above & repeat here, there is little chance that any mainstream manufacturer is going to mass-market 14500 if any ever do mass-market li-ion cells*. There's likely to be too many people using them in the many devices which can't handle the voltage. At best, perhaps something like 14600 or whatever which is not going to fit in the vast majority of AA devices but is usable in specially made torches that can also take AA.

*And the very least this would likely be only with the safer chemistries but I can't see it. Other then flashlights nothings going to use them. Cameras have already moved to specialised battery packs. Laptops, netbooks etc always did. Indeed as I remarked I find it questionable if most people are going to care enough about the runtimes and/or brightness advantage that there's even much point for torches.

For the tiny niche market of CPF etc, 18650 is a great form factor. The incompatibility with AA is a non issue since if it is a concern an adaptor is a simple option (with torches that support the low voltage) & most will have one or more 18650 for the runtime & one or more AA for the emergency usage factor. The later is already what's happening after all. There may be greater usage of AA sized, as efficiencies improve meaning you get decent runtimes with 14500 but at the same time, these people 'don't want a dull light' so they'll probably look for brighter lights & therefore they'll start to hit 14500 runtimes again.

AA size flashlights will continue to be popular for the general public. The vast majority of people won't be using 14500 in them though just normal alkaline & other ~1.5V cells. It's probably unlikely li-ion cells will ever take off, if they do it will require the big players & you can bet they won't be doing it with 14500 cells. More likely we'd get specialised liion cells or torches which are plug in rechargable with built in non-removable liion cells. Perhaps most likely, people will just make do with AA. Your statement 'nobody wants a dull light' ignores the reality that the very vast majority of people nowadays have rather dull lights compared to what's available with a good LED, even a good AA LED light. Given the evidence suggests most people are fine with these crappy incandescents (& nowadays sometimes LEDs), why is there any reason to think they're going to somehow start wanting 14500 for their AA lights in the future which will likely be brighter then anything used nowadays?

yup, true. imr 16340 be an alternative?