Go back to that simple circuit of resistor and LED in series for the temperature effect.
I understood I shouldn't look at the chart in datasheet which shows max. forward current for design calculation.
But for analysis purpose.
Temperature goes up both Vf and If decrease for an individual LED. Which one I should think first Vf or If for that circuit? You know they will give different result.
I still can't think it through what I am missing. But I am learning.
up front please know,...wading in here midstream w/o carefully reading the entire Thread.
here's my guess (which could be wrong) on the source of your confusion.
you're looking at the charts you referenced analytically when you ought to be looking at them as design limitations.
1. the charts are telling you what you, as the designer, must limit the current to for a given temperature.
2. unless i'm grossly mistaken, the charts are NOT intended to tell you, operationally in a circuit, what happens to current as the t-amb. changes. your circuit analysis will show that the current is going up as the temp goes up. that is correct. the charts are only saying that you MUST NOT allow the current to go beyond the points indicated on the curves for a given temperature. again, if i understand the charts correctly, they are NOT telling you that the I goes down as the Temp incr., but rather that you, the designer, must limit the current to the level specified by the charts for any given temperature. the charts are NOT performing any circuit analysis, just specifying maximum design criteria for a given temp. as such, if your design is operating in warmer t-amb, then you must account for that in your design and NOT permit the current through the LED to go above that indicated on a particular curve for a given temp. the charts are NOT saying that current goes down as temp rises. they are expressing OPERATIONAL LIMITS/MAXIMUMS, *NOT* operational circuit analysis (i.e. if operating temp goes up, then operational current goes down [sic] which would be just the opposite of what your ckt analysis showed; the current actually goes up, but the designer must know this and make sure that it doesn't exceed the I-Maxallowable from the chart).
3. the charts are merely telling you what you must limit the max. current to in your particular design in order to not damage or drastically shorten the life of the LED, in other words the charts specify the "safe"/normal Mfr's recommended upper operational limits. as such, for a given temp, you must limit the I to the indicated max value, or you must make sure that your design removes any additional thermal energy (i.e. heat), through some cooling mechanism.
unless i'm mistaken, this is one of the points that Mr. Happy has been tryin' to make.
[Note: my apologies for the redundancy of description above. i've tried, through somewhat different wording, to make the explanation clear in the hopes that one of the explanations might hit home, so to speak.]