The questions you need to ask yourself are:
Do you want throw or flood? K2 will give you throw, the xm-l flood, and the xp-g in between.
Are you looking for a relatively simple first mod that will get you started in modding or a more difficult cut, center, and focus mod to stretch your modding capability? The K2 requires you to trim off the LED corners to fit in the 8mm diameter round spot for the LED. The K2 has a 7.5mm square base. There is a picture somewhere on CPF of the K2 in a NT if you want to see the kind of trimming required. Somebody wait they did it with toenail clippers - it's just plastic housing. PM me your email and I can email it to you if you can't find that picture. The Crees are a different construction which require some cutting and repositioning. You can get the xm-l on an 8mm board which will help tremendously centering it. I wish there were 8mm boards for the xp-g too, but I haven't seen any. The xp-g and xm-l will then only need focusing, which could include shimming it up and cutting the base of the reflector, while the K2 should not need any focusing.
Are you going to use RCR123 or IMR123's and do you know the Vf of the K2? K2 Vf's can vary wildly and the result of your mod may depend on that and the Vf of the LED coming out of the light as the light was tuned to the LED currently in it assuming it is still stock.
If you want an easier mod that will require no reflector machining, want to use RCR's, and the rest is unknown, the K2 is definitely the safer option. Previous people's experience shows that the K2 can end up with a lot of current flowing through the LED if you have a D-bin Vf. The xp-g can handle 1.5Amp for a little while, but the K2 can handle over 2A for a little while. On one IMR123, my lowest Vf (D bin) K2 is seeing 2.25Amps continuous. And I have done that for over two years now without burning it up (1min or less at a time!). The xp-g will turn blue on that current and the xp-g Vf is often very low, so you may see this if you use IMR and the original LED Vf was relatively high. K2 Vf's apparantly vary more than xp-g's or xm-l's, so you may get a K2 with high Vf that draws less current. An E or F bin may only draw one Amp. I have one of those that I drive DD on an 18500 at 1.1A as a bike helmet light for 45 minutes at a time.
That said, I have an original HDS U60 with an xp-g in it and it works well, but it took an experienced modder a few weeks including him sending it out to get the reflector machined to get the xp-g to focus. If you want to learn a lot and challenge yourself, then this may be the way to go.
If you want a more simple start to learn a little at a time mod, I would suggest putting in the K2 which should focus well without any adjustment, and see how it goes. If it quickly gets hot on high, then I would guess it has a low Vf K2 and is pulling more current than the original LED (which must have been higher Vf) and you may want to prepare to blow an xp-g if you try to put one in, or just set max to less than actual max. I have yet to hear of anyone burn up an xp-g in a NT or HDS, but who knows? Henry limits max burst on the newer Ra/HDS lights and he knows more about these lights and drivers than anyone. Xm-l will of course handle anything one cell can throw at it even with its low Vf since it can handle 2.8-3Amps and the cell will droop before you get to that.
So what do you want from your light and do you want to challenge yourself?