How much heat is moved is a function of air temp and humidity. Hot day air is not as effective as cold humid night air. Also, unless you are dropping power at slower speeds, you need to design for the worst (slowest) not best (fastest) air cooling speed. It is very hard to model this well even in very simple lights so the usual DIY approach is to stay above certain minimal values arrived at by trial and error.
The minimum for not overheating to hand burning temperatures and lower light output appears to be about 1 square inch per watt of total consumption though this may not be enough. Heat output with P7's should be about 15% less, but the driver efficiency and heat output play here too. With good airflow at temperatures of about 20 degrees C or lower, the 1 square in per watt is pushing at the lower limit. A full copper liner to spread the heat fast over the whole area of the light is heavy, but I found it helps push this limit. Upping to 1.5 inches allows for some less than perfect junctions and thermal path in a light and for higher temperatures. Up it to 2 to 2.5 square inches per watt if you are going to be sitting in dead calm for a while, I am not sure how much you need in Alice Springs in the height of the Aussie summer with the light as a daytime running light, black anodized, and in full sun, but you have the basic idea.
Not as nice as a neat formula, but that should help some.