Where will it end?

The last few years I notice a steady increase in lumens of about 50% every year.
3 Years ago You had about 60 lumens from a single 18650.
Next year's it went up to 120, 210, 300 etc.
This year we can buy a Tactical Lights that has 438 lumens from a single 18650.
Any educated guesses where this will go to ?

My rough estimate would be somewhere around 1000 Lumens from a single die running 500mA on high.

This is just a ballpark estimate based on gut feelings I get before bedtime.

obi

I suppose it will end when the average light can be seen from space. Personally I dont see the need for anything over 500 in EDC type lights to me over 200 is excessive. I would prefer manufacturers to listen to feedback from us rather than getting into a pissing contest between brands. Similar to cameras and mega pixies for cameras. They are a selling point I.e. The more the better in the average punters eyes.

O.Kenobe,
Good night and sleep well.
Thats just what I want, a ballpark estimate.
Please lets not go in the direction that someone is happy or not with it, or if it should have stopped at 10, 50 or 120 lumens.
I was just curious what would be technical possible in the next, say 10 years?

IT will end when the heat cannot be dissipated anymore and you risk burning your hands or setting fire. The proportion of heat generated for a certain amount of light will most likely diminish with newer emitters, but there must be a limit at some point even if you completely eliminate the infra-red part of the spectrum and only need milli-amps to drive 20 000 lumens.

Then, if manufacturers push for more, there might be some form of legislation as to how hot a flashlight can be whether it be the head, tube of out the front.

I doubt we pass the point where people start having permanent eye damage, but if too many idiots start pointing bright lights at cars or use them to create dangerous situations, then the government (Gvt. mom as I like to say in these situations) will pass a law that either (a) makes such actions a criminal act or (b) that limits the amount of light a flashlight can produce, possibly setting the limit lower than current technology can produce at that time.

I don't think emitters themselves will set the limit, just human tolerance...

Double post sorry.

Acid87 said:

...I would prefer manufacturers to listen to feedback from us rather than getting into a pissing contest between brands.

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Any manufacturer that does not listen to its customer will rapidly cease to exist.

rmteo said:

Any manufacturer that does not listen to its customer will rapidly cease to exist.

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A la Nitecore. I used to love there older stuff but we all see what happened with them.

Cataract,
I think You have a good point with the heat and eye damage. Eventualy the heat will be solved, but eye damage, that will possibly be a problem they can't get around.
Would be nice thou, to have a pocker rocket that can make a light spot on the moon

Grizzlyb said:

Cataract,
I think You have a good point with the heat and eye damage. Eventualy the heat will be solved, but eye damage, that will possibly be a problem they can't get around.
Would be nice thou, to have a pocker rocket that can make a light spot on the moon

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I might not have been clear or you might have misread... I meant to say that I don't think we will get to the point where flashlights can cause permanent eye damage... eye damage mostly (if not exclusively) occurs from UV light and I'm sure manufacturers will want to limit the UV output of their lights, if not for our protection, then at least to limit heat and the amount of power that goes into wavelengths that are not useful. BUT, if a flashlight could cause actual permanent eye damage, I'm sure they would think twice about it. To be honest, if you have to close your eyes whenever you turn a flashlight on, it would certainly be hard to market.

I think I read somewhere, that eye damage could also occure in the Blue light range, but I am no specialist in that field.
At the moment you can buy of the shelf, handheld lights with more then 3000 lumens. You think in, lets say 5 years, the single 18650 lights could have 3000 lumens?

Grizzlyb said:

I think I read somewhere, that eye damage could also occure in the Blue light range, but I am no specialist in that field.
At the moment you can buy of the shelf, handheld lights with more then 3000 lumens. You think in, lets say 5 years, the single 18650 lights could have 3000 lumens?

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There is a ceiling for max lumen per watt, I read an article somewhere on wiki about it awhile ago. As to a 3k lumen torch off a single cell 18650? I bet ya one of the mad scientist types on CPF could whip one up right now, IMR cell driven to the bleeding edge of safety, with a VERY short runtime.

Here is the wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_efficacy
and the article that wiki used to state the theoretical max efficiency of LEDs:
http://www.physorg.com/news202453100.html

Acid87 said:

I suppose it will end when the average light can be seen from space. Personally I dont see the need for anything over 500 in EDC type lights to me over 200 is excessive. I would prefer manufacturers to listen to feedback from us rather than getting into a pissing contest between brands. Similar to cameras and mega pixies for cameras. They are a selling point I.e. The more the better in the average punters eyes.

Click to expand...

I'm new here, so please be gentle...
Using a flashlight for walking, I find that, as long as the beam spread is good, the lower mode on most modern flashlights is fine. While the runtime isn't as good, I prefer it to a headtorch as there's far better reach (I don't cave, and I don't tend to be looking at maps in the dark).
However, I really like having access to a high mode, as it helps when trying to find the dog in a field...

I would think that battery life and run time would affect the limits there. What's is the max battery life you can get out of a 500 or 1000 lm light?

Brembo, thanks for the links. VERY technical but interesting indeed.
Theoretical limit of LED is set on 260.-300.0 Overall luminous efficacy (lm/W), which comes down to an Overall luminous efficiency of 38.1–43.9%
I think that is very efficient.

bhauer said:

I would think that battery life and run time would affect the limits there. What's is the max battery life you can get out of a 500 or 1000 lm light?

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Can't be sure on that one, but my SWM T20C is almost 450lm on 1 x 18650 and it will run about 1,5 hours real time.
But what goes for the steady increase of LED power and efficiency, goes also for the battery's. They increase in performance also, but maybe not so fast as the LED's?
So, better specified, with a normal runtime of about 2 hours, could we see a 1 x 18650 with 3000lm ANSI in the coming 5 years?

brembo said:

As to a 3k lumen torch off a single cell 18650? I bet ya one of the mad scientist types on CPF could whip one up right now, IMR cell driven to the bleeding edge of safety, with a VERY short runtime.

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The mad scientist is Wayne Johnson of ElektroLumens. His Big Bruiser is a 3,000 lumen triple XM-L that runs off a single IMR 26650, direct drive. Current is 9A sustained, so run time is indeed short -- about half an hour.

Getting this much juice out of a 18650 would be possible but dangerous. The AW IMR 18650 is 1600mAh, so 9A current is over 5C. A fine lab experiment, but not something I'd hold in my hand.

leodanger said:

I'm new here, so please be gentle...
Using a flashlight for walking, I find that, as long as the beam spread is good, the lower mode on most modern flashlights is fine. While the runtime isn't as good, I prefer it to a headtorch as there's far better reach (I don't cave, and I don't tend to be looking at maps in the dark).
However, I really like having access to a high mode, as it helps when trying to find the dog in a field...

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Welcome leodanger,

I must agree with you. I'm tending towards a wider beam as it's more useful to me. I also like a bright blast to locate stuff and then switch to a lower level for closer inspection.

Ken

Cataract said:

IT will end when the heat cannot be dissipated anymore and you risk burning your hands or setting fire. The proportion of heat generated for a certain amount of light will most likely diminish with newer emitters, but there must be a limit at some point even if you completely eliminate the infra-red part of the spectrum and only need milli-amps to drive 20 000 lumens.

Then, if manufacturers push for more, there might be some form of legislation as to how hot a flashlight can be whether it be the head, tube of out the front.

I doubt we pass the point where people start having permanent eye damage, but if too many idiots start pointing bright lights at cars or use them to create dangerous situations, then the government (Gvt. mom as I like to say in these situations) will pass a law that either (a) makes such actions a criminal act or (b) that limits the amount of light a flashlight can produce, possibly setting the limit lower than current technology can produce at that time.

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I came in here to type that last paragraph, except replacing "if" with "when", & adding c) licenses or exemptions for military & LE etc. & d)get off my lawn!

Even in this forum there is a male nurse (who claims to be) going around his emergency room strobing people, I've seen security guards play flashlight wars by seeing who can shine the brightest light in each others' faces, & lately there's been someone in my neighborhood who must have just recently obtained a really powerful light scowl: which one of you is it?), because he sometimes goes out & plays with it by shining it at everything & everyone that moves. He will fling his beam around & shamelessly light you up for sport if he hears your door open at night. Not blinding or anything, but soon these mere annoyances will be real problems. I mean kids already throw debris off overpasses to intentionally damage cars as if it were a video game, light up cockpits with laser pointers, what are they going to do with thousands of pocketable lumens? It's inevitable.

Hi Flashflood,

**grinn** That Johnson guy indeed is already coming close to the mark. I think 5 years is a way to long estimate for 3000lm from an 18650.
Seeing what he is capable of, I should up the bet to 5000lm on a single 18650 with a 2 hour runtime at least :+)

Hi leon2245,
Annoying neighbor, probably a kid playing with his dad's light.
I think we will have to except the facts, those lights will come. We can't stop progress (the good or the bad)

Grizzlyb said:

Hi Flashflood,

**grinn** That Johnson guy indeed is already coming close to the mark. I think 5 years is a way to long estimate for 3000lm from an 18650.
Seeing what he is capable of, I should up the bet to 5000lm on a single 18650 with a 2 hour runtime at least :+)

Hi leon2245,
Annoying neighbor, probably a kid playing with his dad's light.
I think we will have to except the facts, those lights will come. We can't stop progress (the good or the bad)

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Oh they'll come allright, and I not only accept but welcome it. I just regret that they'll be eventually be legislated & regulated as Cataract proposed will enventually happen, because of the irresponsible.