Are we really talking about "lifetime" lights?

Claireandtim

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Most, if not all new led's are rated at 50,000 hour lifespans. The quick math says this is 5.7 years of "constant on". I don't know about everyone else but I have almost 20 really nice lights, all of which are less than 2 years old. It would seem to me that it's more likely that I'll either lose, damage beyond repair or experience other component failure before the LED expires, does this seem logical?

To continue on this thought process, I don't use my lights everyday, so assuming I take care of them, I would think the lights that I own could theoretically still be in service 40 years from now? I realize that by that time technology will have likely made my lights obsolete.. However my thought is that they should still be usable.

I'm interested in thoughts on this if anyone would like to comment.
 

Mikeg23

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My first thought is I'm sure there are people with 40 year old flashlights now but they seem pretty useless compared to a what is now available...
 

Yoda4561

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It'll depend on the build quality, driver component life, and how hard the LED is driven. But yeah, a simple resistored, direct drive LED driven at lower current will be functioning 40 years from now most likely. Assuming the LED is kept within the thermal and electrical limits the switch and driver electronics will fail long before the LED itself does.
 

gcbryan

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A LED is a type of diode. I'm sure there are plenty of 40 year old transistor radios that are still operational. I'm sure LEDs are no different.
 

Gregozedobe

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My first thought is I'm sure there are people with 40 year old flashlights now but they seem pretty useless compared to a what is now available...

I have trouble thinking that some of the better lights we currently have will be "pretty useless" by comparison, but can agree that they will almost certainly be pretty unimpressive by comparison.

The current level of utility will still be there. If you look at well maintained 40 year old bicycles or cars they still perform their intended function, but modern ones (generally) perform a lot better (and are way cheaper in terms of time and std feature adjusted cost).
 

StarHalo

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I have a set of Ikea Dioder LED strips in my kitchen that have been left on roughly eight hours a night for over three years; that's about 9000 hours of runtime with no operational change. Makes the initial $50 investment seem pretty insignificant.

A LED is a type of diode. I'm sure there are plenty of 40 year old transistor radios that are still operational.

My 1969 Sony transistor radio still works beautifully, sucks a 9 volt battery down in a few hours..
 

Claireandtim

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It certainly seems that a long life is possible, it's just crazy to imagine the light could be using the same emitter 20 years from now. I'm sure that technology will improve but how far can it go? I'd imagine that reflector size is always going to be a critical factor in the output game, no matter how awesome the LED is.
 

ZMZ67

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I am hoping my lights will last many years! We constantly see talk of how bright some lights are but I have doubts that many of them will last any serious length of time.I try to go for designs that are reported to be modestly driven to avoid early failure.I'm sure if my favorite lights are still working 40 years from now it will bring a smile to my face even if they are greatly outclassed by more modern technology.
 

Vortus

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Other than being more efficient (less heat, power draw etc), will they really be that much different? There will always be bigger badder lights. However, most seem happy enough with sub 200 lm, and often we see folks wanting less than a single lumen. And if you've got backup drop ins or stars along with spare wear and tear parts then yeah, the light will probably outlast us.
 

3Cylinders

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I have trouble thinking that some of the better lights we currently have will be "pretty useless" by comparison, but can agree that they will almost certainly be pretty unimpressive by comparison.

The current level of utility will still be there. If you look at well maintained 40 year old bicycles or cars they still perform their intended function, but modern ones (generally) perform a lot better (and are way cheaper in terms of time and std feature adjusted cost).

This:thumbsup:. The thing with flashlights is that better ones will come along, but they never really go "obsolete" as long as they still work and there are batteries to power them. They don't suddenly stop lighting up just because a brighter/more efficient LED is released. But, to address your question, it's reasonable to expect that you will either lose or replace your lights or another component will fail before the LED assuming good quality lights that were properly designed to not overdrive the LED. Even with everything else being top-notch, LEDs can still prematurely fail, so, while you may not be expecting it, don't be overly surprised if the LED does fail early.
 

speedsix

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I think in 40 years the battery will be the main issue with lights. I am sure AAs will certainly be around even if we have amazing advances in battery technology which I expect. AAs will have to be made because there are just too many devices that will still be around that will need them.

CR-123s will almost certainly be obsolete in far less than 40 years. I expect them to be more or obsolete in 10 years or so. AAs will be able to provide all the power of a CR123 and the CR123 will be relegated to the trash can of history.
 

Mikeg23

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I have trouble thinking that some of the better lights we currently have will be "pretty useless" by comparison, but can agree that they will almost certainly be pretty unimpressive by comparison.

I agree that they will be as useful as they are now but many people would say that their 40 year old mag or streamlight is still useful
 

jimbo@stn23

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I kinda saw it different Speedsix.

While I would agree that the AA platform has powered many devices, the CR123 has the advantage of form factor when applied to multi-cell flashlights. The AAA cell may see some increased use, the AA has it's days numbered long before the CR123 cell as I see it.

When I look at the recent Surefire offering to use the AA cell, it is hideous as compared to what you could get out of a single or two 123 cell lights. There is no compelling reason to use the almost similar diameter and twice as long cell to power high drain devices other than to take advantage of cells freely available at a gas station.

The future will certainly be interesting. But it'll be a long time before I'm buying AA powered flashlights over my Surefires or similar format li-ion rechargeables. Am thinking that a slight increase in diameter rather than length will provide the greatest gains in taking advantage of chemistry improvements. It will require alot of dark, and I can wait until the sun comes up before I spend much money on the AA lights that may come.:)
 
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Gregozedobe

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While I would agree that the AA platform has powered many devices, the CR123 has the advantage of form factor when applied to multi-cell flashlights. The AAA cell may see some increased use, the AA has it's days numbered long before the CR123 cell as I see it.

Sorry jimbo. I'm with speedsix on this. I'll happily bet against that happening, and my main reasons are absolutely nothing to do with size, efficiency, energy density or any other rational, performance criteria.

I think it is all about market forces. There is a huge, world-wide investment in the AA sized battery "standard". The general consumer "knows" AA batteries well, understands their voltages and most importantly of all, is comfortable with them. If they want a rechargeable battery, then eneloops will run all std 1.2/1.5v devices, and do it well (for a good example, look at what Zebralight are currently offering in AA lights). Most non-flashaholics don't want to know about "weird" battery sizes, and are scared by all the horror stories thay hear about 3.7v Li-ion batteries exploding or catching fire.

For a good example, think about Beta vs VHS video recorders. By any objective performance standard the Beta was superior, but VHS had better marketing and Beta got left by the wayside, and once sales dwindled to a certain point that was the end.

By comparison with AAs, sales of CR123 sized batteries are currently minute (look at any volume retailer's shelves). So my bold prediction is that while CR123 batteries may continue as a niche product, they will never displace AAs a mainstream battery standard (although something else may displace both if exceptionally superior).

Let's catch up in 10 years time and see what happened.
 
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tel0004

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I think flashlights are certainly capable of being around for a lifetime, but they won't be common. How many things does the average person own and use that are 40+ years old. Probably not much (although my razor was made in the 60's and it gets used 3 times a week, but that's another subject).

Even today, high end, well made flashlights are pretty rare. Everybody on this forum owns it, but the majority of people own cheap lights which will not last. Even on this forum, most people want the latest technology. How many people here commonly use a light that is over 10 years old. I own some maglights that are 10 years old, but they are in a box in the basement. So they will last, but mainly due to being in storage, rather than because of their great design.
 

dougie

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I'm sure there will be loads of lights made today that will be around in 20-40 years time. However, will you be using them? If we look at the lights used just a decade ago they were made by relatively small amount of manufacturers and were mostly incandescent. Most of them had poor performance beam wise and in battery life. Nowadays there are loads of domestic and foreign manufacturers and the quality of the lights being made is getting better and better all the time. However, it's the pace of developing flashlight technology that will determine what we use in the next 20-40 years and I very much doubt that we will see a slow down of either LED, battery or electronic components being developed and used. Whilst some people are happy to use something until it either falls apart of becomes so unreliable that it is a liability others will always be buying the latest and greatest. Flashlights are no exception to this rule!
 

jimbo@stn23

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It's a deal Greg, I'll look forward to how things progress.

You bring up some good points that I thought of when reflecting on my post and I would have to aggree with you about the AA cells having a market advantage and comfort for the average battery consumer. There will be many more AA's sold for every one CR123 but I can't believe that the 123 cell will disappear. I'm kinda counting on it.:)
 

fyrstormer

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The data tape recorders on the Galileo space probe used LEDs as part of their tape-measurement mechanism. Those LEDs survived years of continuous operation, as well as continuous exposure to Helian and Jovian radiation, and they still worked fine when the probe was finally crashed into the planet to dispose of it.
 

BillSWPA

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One of my friends who is in a position to know has questioned the stated lifespans of many LED's used in flashlights. However, given the way these lights are typically used, we are not likely to see failures in our lifetimes, even if the true lifespan is half or less than that which is stated.

My flashlights get replaced not due to failure, but due to technology improvements. My first serious light, a Streamlight Scorpion purchased during the 1990's, is still serving my Mom's needs. My Surefire 6P is in my shooting bag for use during low light classes, and continues to work just as it should. Other older but still completely usable lights end up being kept in various locations around the house and/or in the car as backups, as better lights with greater reliability, longer runtimes, better outputs, and other features come along.
 
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