Increasing earthquake activity

Hooked on Fenix

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These are just the big quakes in the past week alone:
4/19/14 Papua New Guinea- 7.5 magnitude
4/19/14 Papua New Guinea- 6.6
4/18/14 Mexico- 7.2
4/18/14 Bouvet Island- 6.9
4/13/14 Solomon Islands- 6.6
4/13/14 Solomon Islands- 7.4
4/12/14 Solomon Islands- 7.6

We also had the big earthquake in Chile recently and volcano activity seems to be increasing as well. Seems like there might be a lot of pressure building on the faults on the west coast of the U.S. as we had a 5.4 in Alaska yesterday and the 7.2 in Mexico as well. There have been a lot of microquakes in California and Alaska. I'm wondering if it's time for the big one.
 

CUL8R

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Anything is possible. And while it's not part of the Ring of Fire around the Pacific, the lava levels under the main Yellowstone caldera are increasing, causing a tilt of Yellowstone lake. I'd hate to see a supervolcano erupt in my lifetime! All anyone can do is update emergency plans, keep your emergency kits/stock up to date, and hope to never need those plans and supplies.
 

N_N_R

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Noo, no, no, please no. We had a big (well, for us) one - 6.2 almost two years ago with lots of aftershocks and I haven't gotten over it yet :sigh:

I refuse to read this topic... but as I'm a masochist, I guess I'll keep doing it and buying more lights to fight my PTSD.....:candle:
 

HarryN

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The need for individuals to prepare for an earthquake is really not very different that what we did in the Midwest to prepare for winter.

- Assume that you might not be able to go to the grocery store for 3 - 7 days (which is in-line with some Iowa winters I went through) This can be as simple as a case of soup, crackers, granola bars. You can make it without fresh vegetables for a week.
- Keep a few cases of bottled water around. Pretty easy.
- Have an extra method of cooking around - similar to going "camping from your car". A simple propane stove will do.
- Easily accessible shoes and gloves

A few things less often on the list:
- Bottle of non perfume / as pure as you can find it, laundry bleach. A capful of bleach in a gallon of water is really useful for cleaning cuts and general sanitation.
- Chocolate - it is a great way to feel better
- Coffee - same reason
- Self lighting charcoal - even if nothing else is working, you can cook with just one piece if you have to, and it is easy to carry around compared to a propane stove.
- Beer / wine - Inconvenient does not have to mean punishment
 

PhotonWrangler

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+1 on Chocolate and coffee for stated reasons.

Add to the list:
Flashlights and fresh / charged batteries including a lantern style light. A solar battery charger is nice to have also.
Keep a winter jacket handy in case you're without heat for awhile.
 

Hooked on Fenix

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Keep in mind that the last large earthquake to strike around California that caused significant damage was a 7.2 on Easter Sunday April 4, 2010. Tomorrow is Easter. There was a 7.2 in Mexico yesterday on April 18. The pattern of earthquakes is seeming to follow a similar pattern to that of 2010-2011. What are the odds that California gets hit by a large earthquake on Easter Sunday, shortly after a blood moon on the Jewish Passover?
 

Hooked on Fenix

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Well, luckily nothing significant occured in CA on Easter. However we aren't out of the woods yet. A 6.6 hit the west coast of Canada today. Looking at seismic activity maps over the last week, it doesn't look like there is much of the San Andreas that isn't active (mostly ones, twos, threes, and a couple fours). I'll probably be checking my preps over the next couple weeks to make sure I'm prepared just in case. It won't hurt to make sure my batteries are charged up and stock up on a little food and water.
 

StarHalo

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A few things less often on the list:
- Chocolate
- Coffee
- Beer / wine

Shoot, a fella' could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff..

pF8d0l9.jpg
 

Steve K

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And I'm surprised anyone in the midwest would prepare for an earthquake with all the preparations needed for storms/tornadoes; I didn't know about furniture straps or strapping your hot water heater until I moved out here..

I haven't heard anything about earthquake preparations in my current location. Tornados are much more likely to be a problem. In November, a small town very close to me was hit by a tornado and I think 800 homes were damaged or destroyed. There was a wide swath where everything was leveled. Very sobering!

My vague recollection is that there was talk of implementing building codes in St. Louis to require some level of tolerance for earthquakes. The potential for death and damage from the New Madrid quake is significant:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Fault
"The report found that there would be significant damage in the eight states studied – Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee – with the probability of additional damage in states farther from the NMSZ. Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri would be most severely impacted, and the cities of Memphis, Tennessee and St. Louis, Missouri would be severely damaged. The report estimated 86,000 casualties, including 3,500 fatalities; 715,000 damaged buildings; and 7.2 million people displaced, with 2 million of those seeking shelter, primarily due to the lack of utility services. Direct economic losses, according to the report, would be at least $300 billion."
 

Empath

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Sixteen posts were removed due to being a religious discussion, complete with opposing views. While we do provide an area for such discussion, it's not the Cafe. Feel free to continue the discussion on our Underground Wine Cellar. It even has a special forum for religious discussion.
 

Hooked on Fenix

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To get back on topic, here's a website that shows disasters worldwide including earthquakes. You can see the line of microquakes along the San Andreas fault. It looks like something is going to happen. I have no idea how big it will be though, but with the 7.2 in Mexico and the 6.6 in Canada I bet some pressure has to be released one way or another between those two earthquakes. http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php We have had a decent amount of large quakes recently and they do seem to follow the same pattern of the earthquakes around the Ring of Fire in 2010-2011. When we get an 8 or 9 earthquake, it seems to have a domino effect that causes more earthquakes in a pattern rotating around the Ring of Fire. Apparently, it's happening again.
 

Steve K

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What's the current theory on the ability to predict earthquakes? An increase in the number of small earthquakes suggests that a big one might be on the way? Or do small earthquakes release some of the stress and energy that has been stored up, thereby reducing the chance of a big quake?

Honestly, at a glance, either seems like it could be right, depending on the circumstances.
 

RetroTechie

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An increase in the number of small earthquakes suggests that a big one might be on the way?
It's no secret that many big quakes are preceeded (and followed!) by a number of smaller quakes. I think a good analogy is how the branch of a tree brakes; it's not a single event, but a process. First some smaller pieces break (weakening what's left), then the branch -mostly- breaks, then some smaller leftover pieces finally fall apart.

Or do small earthquakes release some of the stress and energy that has been stored up,
A big earthquake releases SO MUCH MORE energy, that even many smaller quakes are not enough to put much of a dent in that. If a big one is due, a big one will happen.

thereby reducing the chance of a big quake?
It's not an "if", but a "when". Plates of the earth's crust keep on moving, and will produce further quakes at some point in time.
 

orbital

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... Or do small earthquakes release some of the stress and energy that has been stored up, thereby reducing the chance of a big quake?

+

I was going to say the same thing,, slowly releasing pressure/energy is better than all at once.

Tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, happen in cycles.
This year is very low for tornadoes, but we had a unusually cold winter.

Science looks to figure these things out, so we can plan accordingly
 

Hooked on Fenix

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What's the current theory on the ability to predict earthquakes? An increase in the number of small earthquakes suggests that a big one might be on the way? Or do small earthquakes release some of the stress and energy that has been stored up, thereby reducing the chance of a big quake?

Honestly, at a glance, either seems like it could be right, depending on the circumstances.

After a large earthquake you do have aftershocks. Before large earthquakes you may or may not have foreshocks. Yes, after large earthquakes, you could have smaller earthquakes relieving more pressure on the faultline (aftershocks). You can also have foreshocks along the faultline giving warning of a bigger quake coming. Within this month we have had several large earthquakes around the Ring of Fire. 7 have been 7.0 or higher. For the first few months of the year nothing worldwide was 7.0 or higher. Here's the list from the last 3.5 weeks:
April 1- 8.2 in Chile
April 2- 7.7 in Chile
April 11- 7.1 in Papua New Guinea
April 12- 7.6 in the Solomon Islands
April 13- 7.4 in the Solomon Islands
April 18- 7.2 in Mexico
April 19- 7.5 in Papua New Guinea

Here's the list of 7.0 and above quakes from 2010-2011:
January 3, 2010- 7.1 Solomon Islands
January 12, 2010- 7.0 Haiti*
February 26, 2010- 7.0 Japan
February 27, 2010- 8.8 Chile
April 4, 2010- 7.2 Mexico
April 6, 2010- 7.8 Sumatra, Indonesia
May 9, 2010- 7.2 Sumatra, Indonesia
May 27, 2010- 7.2 Vanuatu
June 13, 2010- 7.5 India*
June 16, 2010- 7.0 Papua, Indonesia
July 18, 2010- 7.3 Papua New Guinea
July 24, 2010- 7.6 Philipines
July 24, 2010- 7.4 Philipines
July 24, 2010- 7.3 Philipines
August 4, 2010- 7.0 Papua New Guinea
August 10, 2010- 7.5 Vanuatu
August 12, 2010- 7.1 Ecuador
September 4, 2010- 7.1 New Zealand
September 29, 2010- 7.2 Papua, Indonesia
October 25, 2010- 7.7 Sumatra, Indonesia
December 21, 2010- 7.4 Japan
December 25, 2010- 7.3 Vanuatu
January 1, 2011- 7.0 Argentina
January 2, 2011- 7.1 Chile
January 13, 2011- 7.0 Loyalty Islands
January 18, 2011- 7.2 Pakistan*
March 9, 2011- 7.3 Japan
March 11, 2011- 9.0 Japan
March 11, 2011- 7.9 Japan
March 11, 2011- 7.7 Japan
April 7, 2011- 7.1 Japan
June 23, 2011- 7.2 Alaska
July 6, 2011- 7.6 New Zealand
July 10, 2011- 7.0 Japan
August 20, 2011- 7.1 Vanuatu
August 20, 2011- 7.0 Vanuatu
September 3, 2011- 7.0 Vanuatu
September 15, 2011- 7.3 Fiji
October 21, 2011- 7.4 New Zealand
October 23, 2011- 7.2 Turkey*
December 14, 2011- 7.1 Papua New Guinea

*= not around the ring of fire

When we get massive earthquakes such as the 9.0 in Japan in 2011, or the 8.8 in Chile in 2010, or the 8.2 in Chile this month, there seems to be a somewhat clockwise rotation of earthquakes around the Ring of Fire that follows. The last time this happened in 2010-2011, the increased activity lasted around 2 years. So far, within 3.5 weeks we have had 7 7.0 or above earthquakes around the Ring of Fire and many volcanoes have become active as well. During 2010 the worldwide average of 7.0 or above earthquakes was 1.83 per month (22 in the year). During 2011 it was 1.58 per month (19 in the year). Not one month in 2010 or 2011 had more than 4 large earthquakes of 7.0 or above. Again, we have had 7 so far this month alone. This is not business as usual.
 

Steve K

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Those are pretty impressive numbers!

I've been through a couple of 5.6 earthquakes (one in Arizona, and one in Long Beach, CA). Those certainly got my attention, but weren't destructive. I can't imagine how bad something in the 8 to 9 range would be.

This is data that would be great if presented in a format that made it easier to comprehend. Maybe just a graph of monthly earthquakes of a given magnitude, or show multiple graph lines, with one for quakes between 8 and 9, one for quakes between 7 and 8, etc.?

Anyway.. so what's the conclusion of this data? Or what's the expected outcome? Is California finally going to slide into the ocean? Or just a warning for those near known faults to plan accordingly?
I'll just assume that I'm fairly safe from earthquakes here in the middle of the USA (but still pay attention to my weather radio, listening for tornado warnings)
 

ragweed

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You can all rest easy! The Bunkers built will ensure the continuity of Government & to those left your taxes are sure to go up through the roof!! :)
 

Hooked on Fenix

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Those are pretty impressive numbers!

I've been through a couple of 5.6 earthquakes (one in Arizona, and one in Long Beach, CA). Those certainly got my attention, but weren't destructive. I can't imagine how bad something in the 8 to 9 range would be.

This is data that would be great if presented in a format that made it easier to comprehend. Maybe just a graph of monthly earthquakes of a given magnitude, or show multiple graph lines, with one for quakes between 8 and 9, one for quakes between 7 and 8, etc.?

Anyway.. so what's the conclusion of this data? Or what's the expected outcome? Is California finally going to slide into the ocean? Or just a warning for those near known faults to plan accordingly?
I'll just assume that I'm fairly safe from earthquakes here in the middle of the USA (but still pay attention to my weather radio, listening for tornado warnings)

Put it under the category of a warning to those near known faults to plan accordingly.
 
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