For practical purposes, I'd expect the driver to make the biggest difference.
In general, LED's are more efficient when underdriven and when kept at lower temperatures. The larger emitter size of most surface mount LED's like the XP-G2, and the better thermal path both suggest that all else being equal, the surface mount LED would be more efficient.
It's hard to find direct comparisons, because not many 5mm LED have lumen output published, and I don't know how to find out if the emitter is reasonably comparable to the surface mount types that more information is available for. Comparing two of the most equivalent I could find specs for with similar CCT and CRI seems to show opposite the expected effect, I suspect more because the die and phosphors are different than that I misunderstand the general principles.
Yuji BC 5600K 93 CRI: 7.3 Lumens / 20mA * 2.9 V = 126 lm/W
Nichia 219B ~5300K 93 CRI: 111 Lumens / 350ma * 2.96 = 107 lm/W
I'm not sure how that Nichia performs at 20mA - the derating graph in the datasheet is too small to read accurately. Sketching some lines on the graph in MS Paint, I think at 20mA it's about 6% of the 350mA brightness. Also, the forward voltage is lower at 20 mA, probably about 2.7 V. In that case:
Nichia 219B ~5300K, 93 CRI: 111 lumens * 0.06 / 20mA *2.7V = 124 lm/W