500 hours is certainly the pits compared to 100,000 hours or 50,000 hours. With the expense of the Luxeons and the fact that few are installed in a *replaceable* format, expected life span can be a real issue.
On the other hand I find it humorous that some of the LED's such as the Nichia, which can have these long life spans, when properly driven, are being way over diriven by many of the small pocket LED lights as well as the key chain lights. I don't believe I have seen much concern expressed here on the CPF about a LED rated to run at 30 mA max, that is in fact running with over 100 mA of current.
I hope to get a few of the 500 hour white 5 Watt emitters within a couple of weeks. At least this is what I've been lead to believe from discussion with Future. Frankly, in the mod I am planning, I think 500 hours is a long time! I doubt I will log this much time on that LED and if I do, by the time this LED dies, I will probably replace the flashlight with a fuel cell flashlight driving who knows what! The mod I have in mind will likely eat 4 123 batteries per hour. 500 hours represents 2000 batteries at say $2.00 ea, that's a paultry $4000!
If the LED cost $40, this represents 1% of the cost to drive it. I think I am much more likely to burn up an overdriven photon style LED than I am a 5W Luxeon!
As stated above, for near constant use such as vehicular applications, the 500 hours is a real problem. For fixed illumination and transportation, this is a problem. For the casual flashlight user, this is less of a problem. For a constant user of flashlights, this may be a problem but then there are other cost issues as well. Certainly rechargeable batteries would need to be employed and with constant current drivers on the Luxeons, it's still a rocky road when considering the safe discharge levels of rechargeables, IMHO.
Forgive this ramble it's just that I think the proper perspective on the use of these Luxeons is often case not the perspective in place. But what do I know, I suffer from flashiholisim! If I didn't, would I be considering a 5W Luxeon mod? I doubt I'd know what a 5W Luxeon is let alone be concerned about it's life expectancy!