LED lighting closer than we think (article)

[Paul_in_Maryland]

Article here.

[PhotonWrangler]

Interesting... thanks for the link, Paul.

I think that article by Philips (linked from the main article) was a little overly optimistic though. We're more likely to see continued improvements in CFL technology as well as LEDs, and there will be room for both in the continuing
quest to displace the incandescent light bulb from it's market dominance.

It's funny how that article referred to "Philips Man" instead of a Philips spokesman. I'm picturing a guy in a superhero costume with a flowing cape and a giant "P" emblazoned on his chest!

[jtr1962]

I'm not sure CFLs will fare any better than incandescents if LEDs follow the path of everything else in the semiconductor industry. In particular, the lower bound for how much something costs is the cost of the raw materials. LEDs are a clear winner there. If we can make CFLs that sell at $1.50 retail now we'll probably have $0.10 LEDs in a few years. I'm imagining a 1000 lumen, 7 watt LED with all the driver electronics integrated which wholesales for something like $0.10. Just mount it on a small, cheap aluminum heatsink, put the assembly in a socket, and you have a screw-in LED replacement for a 75 watt incandescent which as a bonus isn't much bigger than the socket itself. Make enough and it'll easily cost $0.25. With normal markups you can retail this for maybe $0.50 to $0.75, which is about what an incandescent bulb goes for these days.

Linear tubes will probably be around a bit longer since there is a very large installed base of fixtures which would need to be changed out to convert to LED. However, once the next fixture upgrade happens (usually every 20 to 25 years) they'll be replaced with LEDs also.