That's one thing that might change pretty soon: those antiquated battery form factors. Of course they are all here to stay, I like all those sizes, and the mainstream audience still prefers alkalines(they would prefer zinc carbon had they not been replaced by cheap alkys, and on the other hand they might start slowly buying more primary lithiums if volumes go up and prices go down).The only problem I have with current tech is low runtimes, especially with the smaller battery lights - 1x AAA, 1x AA, 1x 123A.
This is pretty much what I'm expecting in the near future. Gradual improvements. Nothing drastic, but all of these stack up to make a very noticeable difference in, say, 4 years. A huge difference in 8 years. This can be observed when we consider today vs. spring 2011 or today vs. spring 2007.So what I hope for, definitely within 20 years, but hopefully much sooner is:
A> 150 lumen per Watt on average LED's, & better than 200 lumen per Watt efficiency from high-end LED's.
B> New battery chemistry that introduces a significant boost to energy density without reduction in the safety factor over current Lithium Ion tech - these are already being worked on - some of these advances will be discussed during the upcoming Next-Generation Materials, Chemistries & Technologies conference http://www.knowledgefoundation.com/next-generation-batteries/battery-materials/ but I've heard of others.
I don't think 3D printing in general (plastic, metal or otherwise) will revolutionize flashlight production as much as some other 3D printer applications. Rather it'll make it easier to produce some difficult-to-machine designs. And the odd "print your own flashlight!" here & there...As 3D metal printing gets cheaper and more accessible, I believe you'll see some interesting work done with bodies that weren't previously possible with conventional production methods.
Indeed. We're not quite there yet, but theoretical limits are approaching. Expect improvement more in color spectrum, cost, durability @ high temps, etc.LED technology has matured to the point that it's kind of boring - we're not going to see leaps and bounds like we did during the heady climb from Luxeon to XR-E to XM-L.
There is at least ONE benefit of LEDs turning less of their input power into heat: the possibility of insane-output lights in very small form factors. Think 2000, 3000+ lumens lights in 1x 18650 size, or keychain lights that do jobs previously done by bigger lights.A benefit of this is that heatsinking requirements will drop steadily to the point that the all-plastic flashlight will eventually make sense for LED's of surprising brightness.
Oh come on! I'll take an alcohol- or sugarcube powered light anytime. Question is just one of practical issues / cost / size / reliability, not one of wanting it.I agree that fuel cells are kind of silly for flashlights (..)
Not gonna happen. Incandescents as we have them now, are not the product of a limited research budget, but a chosen (!) balance between materials' physical limits, efficiency, durability, and cost of replacing bulbs. Make 'em last longer, efficiency goes down. Make 'em more efficient, and you have to replace 'em more often. No 2 ways about it, nothing that more research would fix that hasn't been researched / fixed already. Products @ different points in that spectrum are already on the market. And as the market for incandescents will slowly shrink, so will any budget for further research. It'll take a long time, but incandescents will go the way of the steam engine. :wave:There is a possibility that the humbler incandescent and its close halogen cousin will see some revival as manufacturers funnel money into crash programs to try to keep them efficient enough to manufacture in the general lighting market under rising efficiency standards.
Patents are a bigger encumbrance on 3D printing technology than most realize. The reason we have the plastic-filament variety suddenly blooming onto the hobbyist market is largely because the patents expired and enterprising folks armed with most of the recipe via the patent filing realized that these devices commanding 4-and 5-figure prices could be produced at 3- and 4-figure costs. As other patents expire for the many other technologies out there, I believe there will be similar reductions in price to the end user.I don't think 3D printing in general (plastic, metal or otherwise) will revolutionize flashlight production as much as some other 3D printer applications. Rather it'll make it easier to produce some difficult-to-machine designs. And the odd "print your own flashlight!" here & there...
It's not a matter of want so much as some practical limits on fuel cell technology. They're inherently less efficient than a battery. They engage in combustion, which means they need oxygen, exhaust, and produce waste heat. All small fuel cells that I've seen require exacting proprietary fuel. They don't scale down to something flashlight-sized. And finally there's cost - they're fairly expensive to acquire and operate.Oh come on! I'll take an alcohol- or sugarcube powered light anytime. Question is just one of practical issues / cost / size / reliability, not one of wanting it.
Honestly, near-future, 3600mAH 18650's might materialize at an eye-watering price relative to more pedestrian 2600mAH-3100MaH flavors.Personally I expect biggest advances in battery tech. Especially I'm hoping for batteries where unstable / volatile electrolyte (in paste or gel form) gets replaced with nano-scale structures that don't involve an electrolyte in between at all. Turning batteries into large capacitors of sorts, but with large capacity and many of conventional batteries' drawbacks removed.
That still has a long way to go... :sigh: And while some battery advances may seem quick, the overall market of products that actually materialize, is a slow-moving one. So your 3400 mAh 18650 isn't going to be a 3400 mAh 'supercapacitor' overnight. Either it'll be a research product not available on the market, ridiculously expensive, or you'll see it coming years before it hits local shops.
Agreed. There's also one more factor: the convention of limited lifetime, planned obsolescence. DDR-made general lighting bulbs had longer lifetime, had the same efficiency and I would claim they were not any more expensive to manufacture(and if they were, it was because of the socialism and not engineering reasons). Not saying that the free world's choice to make them worse to increase sales was any better than socialism.Not gonna happen. Incandescents as we have them now, are not the product of a limited research budget, but a chosen (!) balance between materials' physical limits, efficiency, durability, and cost of replacing bulbs. Make 'em last longer, efficiency goes down. Make 'em more efficient, and you have to replace 'em more often. No 2 ways about it, nothing that more research would fix that hasn't been researched / fixed already. Products @ different points in that spectrum are already on the market. And as the market for incandescents will slowly shrink, so will any budget for further research.
Are incans still in widespread use in the NL? In Finland this change already took place over just a few years. It might be global sooner and faster than we would have believed. Took me by surprise at least. Today it seems that it's mostly obsessive retired people hoarding lightbulbs because new technology is always something evil.It'll take a long time, but incandescents will go the way of the steam engine.
The plastic filament type is also relatively low-cost, compact and safe. No high temperatures or significant fire hazard, not much to worry about toxic fumes and no nasty UV exposure. Pretty cheap in small scale anyways. No wonder it's popular among the maker geeks. Plastic protruders are about as safe to operate on the kitchen table as a microwave oven, probably not more of a health risk than a laser printer and undoubtedly safer than indoor smoking. I don't expect the same popularity and success with DIY powder metallurgy, regardless of patents.Patents are a bigger encumbrance on 3D printing technology than most realize. The reason we have the plastic-filament variety suddenly blooming onto the hobbyist market is largely because the patents expired and enterprising folks armed with most of the recipe via the patent filing realized that these devices commanding 4-and 5-figure prices could be produced at 3- and 4-figure costs. As other patents expire for the many other technologies out there, I believe there will be similar reductions in price to the end user.
Amelia said:see slow but certain improvements in LiIon tech - higher capacity and improved safety/reliability.
Beyon that, it's anyone's guess!
Lithium based batteries are pretty much up against a brick ceiling in energy density. Panasonic has supposedly been working on a new chemistry to advance 18650's up to the 4000mAh capacity level... it was supposed to be ready by 1st quarter 2014.... but still vaporware.
RE: Fuel Cells:
Fuel Cells replacing Lithium Ion batteries may be a real option within 15 - 20 years, & quite possibly sooner. There are already "solid state Hydrogen Fuel Cell" based portable power supplies for charging pretty much anything that uses a 5V USB power delivery system up to 2 watts. I.e. Cell Phones, GPS, USB fan's, etc... And pricing is steadily dropping on the power station & Fuel Cells, though the at home charging system is still very expensive, i.e. you can buy like 40 or 50 Fuel Cell's for the cost of one charging station. Currently the Fuel Cells are on the large side, measuring 22mm diameter by 88mm long (smaller than 2 C-cell batteries) & are rated at 14 Watt Hours.
Neat!
Maybe I'm missinformed, but aren't real (not "China-mAH") 3,600 mAH Li-Ion 18650 batteries already available? 4,000 doesn't seem that far off...
I too suspect that metal 3D printers will be as popular with hobbyists in 10-20 years as commercial-grade CNC machining centers are now - vanishingly rare. On the manufacturing side, on the other hand, they will likely become far cheaper and more capable as the patents expire and competitors prepared to make their money on volume rather than high margins enter the now-open market. Thus I expect them to start churning out some interesting things on the high end that were previously cost-prohibitive (think Cool Fall's entire lineup) or simply impossible.The plastic filament type is also relatively low-cost, compact and safe. No high temperatures or significant fire hazard, not much to worry about toxic fumes and no nasty UV exposure. Pretty cheap in small scale anyways. No wonder it's popular among the maker geeks. Plastic protruders are about as safe to operate on the kitchen table as a microwave oven, probably not more of a health risk than a laser printer and undoubtedly safer than indoor smoking. I don't expect the same popularity and success with DIY powder metallurgy, regardless of patents.
Tesla Motors is supposedly buying all the 3600mAH 18650s that Panasonic can make. Whether we see an affordably-priced 4000mAH 18650 in another few years in significant volumes is still up in the air.Lithium based batteries are pretty much up against a brick ceiling in energy density. Panasonic has supposedly been working on a new chemistry to advance 18650's up to the 4000mAh capacity level... it was supposed to be ready by 1st quarter 2014.... but still vaporware.
Fuel Cells replacing Lithium Ion batteries may be a real option within 15 - 20 years, & quite possibly sooner. There are already "solid state Hydrogen Fuel Cell" based portable power supplies for charging pretty much anything that uses a 5V USB power delivery system up to 2 watts. I.e. Cell Phones, GPS, USB fan's, etc... And pricing is steadily dropping on the power station & Fuel Cells, though the at home charging system is still very expensive, i.e. you can buy like 40 or 50 Fuel Cell's for the cost of one charging station. Currently the Fuel Cells are on the large side, measuring 22mm diameter by 88mm long (smaller than 2 C-cell batteries) & are rated at 14 Watt Hours.
As far as different battery form factors, I don't think that will work in flashlights. Can you imagine every flashlight manufacturer with their own different batteries in each light?!!! Phones are a different story for many reasons, which I won't get into. For all intents and purposes, round batteries work ergonomically. Maybe there is something I'm not seeing, but odd shaped flashlights only really work at the keychain level.
I simply don't think there's enough of a flashlight market for very many manufacturers to develop proprietary form-factors for flashlights - especially when it's simple enough just to solder in some industry-standard cell(s) and seal the unit up should you feel the need need to make something "integrated".
myFC PowerTrekk and Brunton Hydrogen Reactor. myFC's solution is $100, uses 5 W-H "pucks" that run $30 per 6-pack (about $1 per watt-hour), is the size of a paperback book, and provides USB power. The Brunton product is also about $100, appears to be larger than the myFC product, uses cylinders of compressed hydrogen that can supposedly produce "3 iPhone charges (4500mAH)" that run $50 per 4-pack (figure ~16W-H or about $0.77 per watt-hour), and also provides USB power. Neither of these interest me, to say nothing of exciting me - think I'd rather a stack of reusable 18650's with some mid-grade chargers whose costs of operation are basically free since power at the outlet is something like $0.15 per kilowatt-hour.
Eh, anyone that gets into an exclusive supplier arrangement for what amounts to a specialized commodity without doing their homework shouldn't be managing a corporation of any size.When your sole proprietary component maker goes out of business, your light goes permanently dark. That's the problem. I'm certain many marques have gone under forever for this.
That's not how you do cost accounting in the real world, my friend. I have run those equations many many times (for a school project a few years back and when analyzing the possibility for my own home) and that "free" solar energy has a per-kWH cost that's typically higher than retail electricity; small-wind is always higher.Charging station can also be run on solar or wind based power source for actually free charging - excluding the cost of the solar cells / wind turbine purchase
Right now the concept is competing with inexpensive USB power banks that have no consumables, produce negligible heat, cost much less, are more space-efficient, offer higher power density, and don't stress their innards like a fuel cell does.If this can become a more mainstream product, then it's only a matter of time before size shrinks, mAh capacity increases, & they become even cheaper.
Appears to be a variant on the Brunton. Perhaps if offers superior performance in some way, but that's not immediately apparent to me.just do a web search for Horizon Minipak.