Speaking of the future of manufacturing, one of my ex-military colleagues (and good friend) is a geopolitical expert, who regularly consults with Fortune 100 companies, state governments, and similar clients. Omitting the details, he's of the considered opinion that a lot of important manufacturing will be returning to North America (USA, Canada, Mexico) between now and 2030, with secondary manufacturing returning between 2030 and 2040. The supply chain issues exposed by the COVID pandemic are the principal driving force behind the re-shoring initiatives; changes to the U.S. tax code that benefit on-shore manufacturing are another important driver of this trend, already underway. Problems between the U.S. and China round out the trifecta of reasons for returning important manufacturing to North America.
That noted, I'm of the personal opinion that mass-produced flashlights will not be among the goods whose production will return to North America, mostly because of the continuing labor cost differentials for low-level manufactures that exists between Asia and North America. The U.S. will still have bespoke craft lights (Prometheus; Malkoff; Laulima Metalcraft; Okluma; Cool Fall; JC Customs; and about seven or eight other custom manufacturers). But in my opinion mass production of flashlights is still likely to remain in Asia. That's not to disparage reputable overseas manufacturers: Fenix, Olight, JetBeam and other reputable brands produce excellent products, at reasonable prices. And the fierce competition among these different companies and some of the newcomers is likely to continue to spur innovation and some incremental improvements in the coming years.
The action in flashlights though has always been in the emitters, and to a lesser extent the cells powering them. Emitter production is spread across the globe: Nichia in Japan; Cree in the U.S.; Osram in Germany. This competition is based on knowledge, not cheap labor. I suspect that emitters will likely continue to improve gradually. What I hope for is a breakthrough in battery technology, something that will yield significant power density; fast charging; and a long runtime. (Imaging a flashlight with a full-spectrum, high-CRI emitter, powered by a cell that can run at high output for a full day, and at more restrained output for a full year. Now wouldn't
that be awesome...).
(We should all live so long...)