Being a (new) manufacturer (adventurer?) of solid state illumination products, I must contend that LEDs will NOT replace all of what we consider mainstream lighting. LEDs will be a niche player for some time to come yet. For most cases, if you're attempting to replace HID, fluorescents (including CCFL), the result will be far less than satisfactory and extremely costly to boot.
So, where would LEDs best be utilized?
- For one, in hard-to-access places. A lightbulb, be it PL, incandescent, or halogen, is relatively cheap to buy. REPLACING it may be a totally different story altogether - think swimming pools, ponds, high places, heavy-traffic areas and other downright dangerous or inconvenient locations. These situations demand a high-maintenance cost due to the danger/difficulty in the LABOUR, not the replacement part itself.
- Colored lighting. Its already well known that hi-powered colored LEDs can rival/beat the efficiencies of filtered incandescent/halogen counterparts in this area. Where would you use these? Spas, pools, landscapes....etc.
- Apps requiring extreme ruggedness and dependability. Military apps and camping/sports come to mind. Need not necessarily be flashlights.
There's lots more app if you think about it. My take is that LEDs are better for directional lighting too. A bulb or tube spreads light in almost all directions, so its total lumen output may be wasted by bouncing light into the interior of a fitting. Reflectors can only help so much and add to complexity, bulk and cost of the fitting. An LED points almost all its light forward. So, if you're thinking of wide area general lighting with LEDs, its most likely going to be a losing proposition when comparing them with traditional lighting. But if you look at cove lighting, accent lighting, directional near-to-medium field lighting - LEDs stand a chance.
Anyways, nichia has been reaaaally quiet all this time - probably chuckling with glee over lumileds 5W fiasco. They've got fairly good consistency with their phosphors and quality control, so I'm expecting them to learn from Lumiled's mistakes and do a much better job with the 10x. PLUS, for the manufacturer - nichia's 10x also seems to be friendlier to the automated mass production line. Luxeons are an absolute PAIN_IN_THE_YOU_KNOW_WHERE when planning for custom production. So, if its expensive for a maker to get the product to market in any way, he will balk and probably wait til machinery, tech and knowhow become more accessible.
Still, I like the technical elegance of an LED. Its not perfect or cheap yet, but everyone remember how much a PL lamp cost at first? And think of the compact disc story too. And large capacity hard disks....etc..etc. I'm optimistic that Moore's law will sorta prevail in some way or another here too, but it will likely take a little more time than with CPUs.
I don't consider myself an expert, but from the experience I've had thus far with the stuff I'm working on, I think I can at least have an opinion
