Blast, Mushroom Cloud Reported in N. Korea

JOshooter

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IMHO it was a nuke. Why did it take them 4 days to say that it was part of a hydroelectric project?
 

BlindedByTheLite

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but doesn't the US have satellites capable of detecting the energy from a nuclear blast?

how long could they really keep something like that under wraps? it seems like information on that level of urgancy would eventually leak from some respective (or infamous) organization.

and i don't think North Korea is dumb enough to conduct a nuclear test in such an obvious manner, but i guess anything's possible with a leader like their's.

altho, in the back of my mind, i do doubt the truth behind them blasting for any sort of construction purposes. it seems like anything that rates that high on the Richter Scale is a weapon being tested.
 

Sub_Umbra

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It would seem to be in the interest of all of the governments who could tell us what happened to just lie and say, "Nothing to see here, folks, just move along."

I would think that the seismic record would be the hardest to keep under wraps. The event (or events) have already been described as being 2.6 on the Richter scale. I don't know how many measuring stations are located within measuring range of the event. 50? 100?

I'm sure that there are many seismic measuring stations that belong to schools and industry that the governments involved have no control over. In the weeks (and months) that pass we should learn a great deal about these events from dribs and drabs of this data. Not just the strength, but also the duration, the interval and other factors that I'll admit to having no knowledge or understanding of. Remember, we eventually got detailed seismic analysis of blasts as small as the one which destroyed the Alfred P Murrah building from many locations and sources which were not suppressible by the government. Some will remember that seismic data, collected simultaneously from different locations from sonic booms has contradicted the official government denials of the landings of the so-called 'Aurora' hyper-sonic spy plane on it's approach to Nevada across California. While I'm not a conspiracy buff, the government story is totally at odds with the independently confirmable data on that one.

What I would like to know is just how much can be learned from a few seismograph records of the same event? I know that there have been many nuke test shots. Intentionally or not, they have all been recorded and been evaluated (with the exception of the very new, very high tech sub-kiloton DE-COUPLED underground tests which are not detectable on a seismic level like the others).

While I don't know, I would think that in the last six decades the volumes of seismographic data pertaining to nuke shots would yield 'fingerprints' that could definitely identify the blast as being nuclear in origin. It is this data, from far reaching sources, that has the potential to give us credible information on this event.

I find it noteworthy that no government has come out and said that the seismic data rules out a nuke event.
 

Brock

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Blasting for a construction site doesn't make a 2.2 mile mushroom cloud. I have seen some larger earth moving shots in person and there was no mushroom cloud at all, nothing, zip.

I have my doubts it was nuclear because no matter how much you try to hide that it's pretty obvious, (unless it's a huge cover-up, which I doubt). Which leaves conventional, and that is a large conventional blast and pretty much would have had to have been above ground to get a cloud that large or a massive underground blast.

The thing I do think is odd is why we have never heard of this on CNN or any of the larger networks. I guess if they don't have images of injured people it doesn't get air time. To me this is news.
 

oldgrandpajack

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Wouldn't be something, if the North Korean's were covering it up because it was an unplanned detonation and we, and other concerned nations in the region, were covering it up because we worked together to make it happen?

oldgrandpajack
 

James S

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There are several methods for detecting nuke blasts, all are used to verify compliance with the test ban treaty. Nobody really thought that anyone would test a nuke above ground as it would be so much easier to check.

First, as people are already talking about, is below ground testing (and above for that matter) produce earthquakes that differ enough from normal earth movements and volcanoes that they can be filtered out. The most obvious is that a nuke blast comes from a single point where earthquakes are spread out along a fault line. it's estimated that a 10kiloton blast would produce a 4.0 or better on the richter scale, but with muffling techniques you could get that down as low as a 2.5 which brings it down into the range of 120,000 other natural events and so finding them at that level is more difficult with more data to sift through.

The most interesting ways to detect them are with infra-sound and sniffing for the gas isotopes that are created by the explosion. I don't know if infra-sound detectors are actually deployed yet, but gas sniffers run round the clock waiting for just a few atoms of isotopes that are created only in a nuke blast. even underground these will quickly (within a few days) find their way to the surface and in a few more days to a sniffer. So, if this was an above ground blast look for that data to make the sensors before too long.

I would expect that satellites could also see the very specific flash from an above ground explosion as well as monitor the EMP from it, but I don't know this for sure.

In reading up about it they do mention specifically the possibility that you could mask a small test by doing that instead of already scheduled mining blasts, which is what this was supposed to have been right? I suppose it's also possible that they mixed a nuke test and a mining operation to clear a mountain top /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/wink.gif I wouldn't want to live on that cleared mountain top later though!

So it may be a few days before enough evidence seeps into the various sensors to tell for sure and once they can correlate the gas sniffer data with the seismic data and satellite pictures then I would expect a final report on the subject.

There isn't much use in secretly having nukes. If you have them, you want people to know about it. They are much more a political weapon and a threat than a tactical working weapon. There are very limited tactical uses for a nuke now days. You can't build so many of them, you could only take out a few select cities and decimate your enemies. Is he planning to secretly sterilize some cities in south korea or japan? what would be the rest of the worlds response to that? He is insane, but is he that insane? maybe...

And again, why wouldn't our government tell us if they decided it really was a nuke test? If you believe the conspiracy then any excuse for them to panic us would be jumped on wouldn't it? You wouldn't expect them to sugar coat it to keep us from worrying around it, that doesn't make sense. You'd expect the opposite. You can't have it both ways /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/wink.gif
 

Sub_Umbra

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[ QUOTE ]

...I guess if they don't have images of injured people it doesn't get air time...

[/ QUOTE ]
Creepy but true.uuuuuuuuuuu<--New kitty typing! It always burns me when big stories go unreported for lack of video. Proof of this is when national news networks start showing video of car accidents! Like there is nothing more important going on in the world! Arrrrg!

I don't know if even if all of the concerned parties lied about this that they would even have to be in collusion. This has happened in one of the most closed off parts of the world regarding free travel and communication resources, and the governments of the area have a long history of either not telling their citizens ANYTHING at all, or at least keeping everyone in the dark for a very long time while they decide what to say. Looking at it that way, without any formal conspiracy at all, one government could monitor the response (or non-response) of another government and decide that it would be easy to say something that would fit in, strengthen its own position, and not upset the cart. The US can play, too. After all there are no reporters, news organizations, tourists, aid workers, foreign contractors or any of the troublesome pests that seem to get in the way of spiking a story anywhere near there. Even the locals are heavily restricted in their communications and travels. Those locals with the MEANS to travel and communicate with the outside are even fewer.

Because of the remote location, if all of the major players felt that it suited their own individual or national interests in moving public opinion in the same direction I don't think it would take a conspiracy or even an organized effort to shape the story in the aftermath of this event and make it all stick together...at least for a couple of months. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif
 

Sub_Umbra

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[ QUOTE ]
And again, why wouldn't our government tell us if they decided it really was a nuke test?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't expect the government to actually make sense that much of the time -- I'm disappointed less that way. A more pointy response might be that some in the current administration might feel it imperative to keep any N Korean nuke test OR accident quiet at least until after the election. Bush has been ripped up one side and down the other, over and over, for dealing with Iraq before dealing with N Korea. You've heard that rational. Some in the administration might feel that the same entities that have expressed that concern in the past 12-18 months will just start into it all over again, only with a more shrill voice and much greater volume, saying, "See, we told you so!!!"

I'm not at all trying to claim that any of the above mentioned assertions are either true OR false -- only that they have, in fact, been said over and over again and that the administration may truly fear the resumption of those allegations in the next two months, in the run-up to the national elections.

As I implied, I'm not trying to get political here. I don't think that the truth matters a wit when discussing the motivations of any politician.

Just a possible suggestion.
 

tvodrd

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If it was a nuclear device, we will know in a week or so. Radionucliotides(sp) will be detectable worldwide. If the levels are seen to increase over background for certain *artificial* actors, the scientists at the universities in countries like Brazil and Sweeden will be screaming. A very interesting read is U.S. Nuclear Weapons- The Secret History by Chuck Hansen. If I understand it, Fission bombs and thermonuclear "triggers" are typically *enhanced* with "tritium capsules." (for lack of a better term /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif ) A little too much and I suspect you have a hybrid thermonuke. In Operation Castle in early 1954, In the the first test shot "Bravo" the scientists underestimated the yield by 250%! A lot of people were injured/dosed and it created an international incident. There appears to be a significant "learning curve" in the development of such things!

(Now where'd I put that W80 I bought in a surplus store in Los Alamos? /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif ) W80 is 11.8" dia, 31.4" long, weighs 290# and has a selectable yield between 170 and 200KT. Is/was strategic warhead for the Tomahawk SLCM. I think the "low beam" neads a little work! /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/icon15.gif

(sorry for the ramble- I haven't dug that book out for years.)

Larry
 

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