Cars, Man

[orbital]

+

General Motors says they'll be all electric by 2035,, just 14 years.


side note: Tesla stock went up the other day, in one day, went up the total value of the Ford Motor Company.
In just one day.

 

[raggie33]

eletric has so much more benifits. i love gearheads who have huge diseil trucks who love to roll coal. then a eletric truck comes out tgat can blow there doors off lol

 

[greenpondmike]

I recon electric would work but it won't be any fun. Maybe if people could learn how to mod them. I have an electric chainsaw and it does well, but I use my husky gas burner the most.

 

[raggie33]

I recon electric would work but it won't be any fun. Maybe if people could learn how to mod them. I have an electric chainsaw and it does well, but I use my husky gas burner the most. I don't like technology myself. IMHO 60s and 70s technology was good enough, but if I had a 2nd choice maybe late 90s tech. I like computers, but I wish they were never invented. I'm personally not looking forward to these future changes.

my cordless brushless tools are so crazy good i have one with 650 pounds of power .i love tools.lol

 

[greenpondmike]

I admit the chain just needs sharpening once in a while on my electric chainsaw and the motor doesn't bog at all hardly, but it just doesn't have the same cool factor as the husky. I like smelling exhaust and the 2-stroke sound and if you crank it and put it on the ground running/idling for a few minutes the vibration from it will run off all the snakes near the area- this is true.

I also have several old vehicles I want to get on the road. Right now my project is a 1975 Ford F150 with the ranger package. It's got a 360fe engine in it. I want to turn it into an efficient torque monster that will eat my brother in laws chevies.

 

[adnj]

Very doubtful IMO. There just isn’t the infrastructure to support them and unlikely to ever be so. To make them viable you pretty much need a charge point for every car. Certainly more than one charge point per household at any rate.

Doing this will cost way too much.

Not too mention the vast numbers of people who don’t have off road parking. City streets lined with enough charge points for every parked car is again way too expensive. Plus they take up room that might not be available. And high voltage “super chargers” are potentially highly hazardous.

Talking of room and space. Towns and cities in the USA are all relatively young purpose built. But towns and cities across Europe are old and tend to have a lot less space and narrower roads. Huge limitations on places to put charge points.

Europe is moving toward charging in the parking space at home and at work, reclaiming petrol fueling stations and using the EV to store excess generated electricity by offering night time recharge incentives.

There may not be more EVs on the road than ICE but the sales are expected to surpass them within ten years. Expect the residual value of most ICE vehicles to drop quickly around the same time.


EV sales growing faster than expected


Sales of electrified vehicles — particularly plug-in hybrids and full battery electrics — are growing faster than expected, according to a new study from Boston Consulting Group.

Electrified vehicles — which stand at about 8 percent of global sales — will account for a third of sales by 2025, according to a report released this month, up from the company's previously forecast one-fourth of sales.

EV sales are expected to surpass internal-combustion-engine vehicle sales by 2030, taking 51 percent of the market.

This uptick in sales comes as traditional and new automakers have more than 100 electric vehicle models in the pipeline over the next three years. Automakers have committed $300 billion to EV development and continue to invest in vehicle charging infrastructure.

Boston Consulting says the uptick also places more pressure on automakers, suppliers and government leaders to support electric vehicles.

Several factors

The boost in EV sales largely is the result of a drop in the total cost of EV ownership and the fact that EVs present the lowest-cost solution to meet industry regulatory standards, the company says.

Government incentives, tighter regulations of tailpipe emissions in several markets, growth of the charging infrastructure and falling EV battery prices also are significant factors in the increase, Xavier Mosquet, managing director and senior partner at the consulting company, told Automotive News.

"We're now using our most aggressive assumptions in terms of battery price decline, which means that somewhere between 2022 and 2023, there will be a time where for most consumers, it would be a reasonable choice to buy an EV because it will be cheaper overall," said Mosquet.

Differences and incentives

The sales mix of electrified vehicles — mild hybrid, full hybrid, plug-in hybrid and full battery-electric vehicles — will vary by market, depending fuel prices, electricity and charging prices and driving-distance averages, the company says.

Financial and nonfinancial incentives in China have made it the leading EV market. In the U.S., electric vehicle tax breaks are starting to wind down for some automakers.

The U.S. will be the slowest major market to electrify, Boston Consulting says, largely because of low gasoline prices and brisk demand for SUVs. Still, the U.S. won't be far behind Europe, Mosquet said, and holds an advantage in terms of charging infrastructure.

Mosquet said Toyota's and General Motors' backing of the Trump administration's efforts to rescind tougher fuel-efficiency standards — and any reductions in U.S. incentives — will minimally impact sales.

"If for any reason the federal government decided to stop the incentives, we'd be stuck in the middle because, between now and 2022, it will be hard to make a market.

"And so the car manufacturer would, in a way, be left on their own to sort of increase the price of gasoline cars and decrease the price of battery-electric vehicles." Mosquet said.

"By 2022, 2023, remember, it will be consumer-driven, so we won't need the incentives anymore."

Despite the optimistic forecast, he said, "The next three years are going to be challenging, and so if you're a car manufacturer or automotive supplier and you've invested in EV technology, you need to have a market and the consumer needs some support for the next three years."

https://www.autonews.com/mobility-report/ev-sales-growing-faster-expected

Sent from my LG-V520 using Tapatalk

 

[greenpondmike]

I was off topic

 

[Chicken Drumstick]

The electrical grid is everywhere in the industrial world. It's generally got surplus capacity - especially at night - and sees continuous growth.

And how is that directly relevant, you still need the actual CHARGE point, which costs thousands to install, be it £ or $.

There are no charge points in the village I live in and plenty of people without drive ways.......... and this really isn't uncommon, but the norm.


Try some simple maths:

273.6 million (number of cars in the USA) x $1500

That is an unbelievable amount of money.

And this totally ignores the fact that there is not yet a standardisation of plug types or tech that is going into charge points.

A dryer outlet (typically 240V 30A) is basically all it takes to charge a vehicle overnight. Home 'charge points' are essentially serial comms, a current sensor, and a contactor to prevent the breaker from tripping if the vehicle draws too much. With some ingenuity one can even share the same circuit with a dryer (or other high-power/low duty cycle load) and stay within the limits of many an electrical panel.

Sorry, not sure what a dryer outlet is.

However charing some of the new EV cars off a regular home plug still takes way too long to be your only means of transport for the vast majority. And as said repeatedly, not everyone will have access to be able to plug an EV in at home anyway.

EVs can't accommodate every use case for sure - least of all emergency trumpet repair and the "gas station" concept of being able to fill from empty in <10 minutes is not likely to succeed. The present deployment model is indeed heavily dependent upon dedicated parking and ideally private garages; some can make due with the greater range of modern EV's and public fast charging. I've seen a few deployments that utilized the incumbent infrastructure for old lampposts with wiring optimized for incandescent lamps that have the margin for overnight EV charging.So are RV park hookups yet there's precious little hand-wringing over those.

RV parks I doubt are the same voltage as the fast charing superchargers that Tesla use. And the risk profile is completely different, as you are unlikely to have a road traffic accident in an RV park, but hugely likely to encounter them on public roads in busy areas. Even down to simple accidents such as reversing or driving into the charge point by mistake. The more charge points there are, the more risk there is of this happening.

And there are likely to be a lot more people in much closer proximity to the charge points than you'd get in an RV park.

Parking like this is quite common across the UK and many places in Europe. Where you can't even be guaranteed to park on the same street as your house, let alone outside it. The only way to make EV charing viable for locations like this would be to provide a charge point for every single car, taking up space on the footpath (side walk).

More concerned about the thousands of gallons of volatile fuel stored at gas stations and the tens of gallons of it sloshing around in vehicle tanks on the move.

Petrol has proven to be relatively safe, hence why it is so widely used. Cars don't just explode when in a crash.

Direct drive with a single reduction gear has been the model for pretty much all modern production EVs I'm aware of. Tesla's first Roadster prototypes were equipped with a 2-speed transmission whose main attributes were additional cost, complexity, weight, and slower acceleration.

Things may well change, gearing serves a purpose on vehicle depending on the specific needs. And sometimes it is beneficial to have more than one gear. For every setup there will be pros and cons.

 

[Chicken Drumstick]

Europe is moving toward charging in the parking space at home and at work, reclaiming petrol fueling stations and using the EV to store excess generated electricity by offering night time recharge incentives.

There may not be more EVs on the road than ICE but the sales are expected to surpass them within ten years. Expect the residual value of most ICE vehicles to drop quickly around the same time.

Again this just isn't practical in the 'real' world. Lots and lots of people do not have parking at home. And parking at work is unlikely to ever have enough charge points for every car. Not too mention COVID has had a distinct shift of people working from home and not in offices. i.e. far less people parking in a works car park.

I've asked this a number of times over the years, and not once have seen anyone give an answer.

This is a very common type of residential street in the UK.

People park on the road in non allocated spaces. Household also on average probably have somewhere between 2 and 4 cars.

It is physically impossible to charge home, as you have no guarantee of even parking close to your home. And obviously you cannot run extension cables out across the path to your car. The only option is to offer enough charing points for every single car..

But that is a huge effort to install in every city, town, village and hamlet across the western world and beyond. And in many cases completely impractical and it will cost a fortune.

I'm sure EV charing infrastructure will grow, but it will take a huge amount of time to still fall short of be viable for everyone/the vast majority.


You are also saying charing at work. So this increases costs further, as you are saying for every car that parks on a street and in a works car park, you will need 2 charing points per vehicle to make it viable. Where is all this funding going to come from?

Again ignoring the fact that many works carparks don't even have enough space for all of their workers, so people end up parking all over the show. And filling a car park with charge points will also reduce the capacity of cars that can park in it.



Don't misunderstand me. I am NOT against EV's. I just do not see how they are viable as the only solution. And this is before you even get to discussing the vehicles themselves.

Which is probably why there are several big players looking at alternatives to EVs still.

EV sales growing faster than expected

Not really.

EV sales are bolstered because of Government incentives on reduced pricing and other benefits, such as free parking, exemption from certain charges and free/low road tax.

Also some of the sales probably included in these figures are likely cop outs. I know in the UK the BMW 330e was hugely popular, because as a company car it cost the employee a lot less money in terms of tax than the comparable non 'e' model. And the vast majority are then just used as regular cars, not bothering to charge them up.

With out the tax incentive (i.e. more money in your pocket). They simply wouldn't not have sold on the merits of being an EV hybrid.


However just because sales are up overall has no direct bearing on the limitations of the infrastructure and the simple fact that an EV just isn't a viable option for many many people.


Answer this:


- You have no charge point near your home, you have no off road parking/drive-way, there are no charing points at your place of work ---- How do you charge and run an EV?

- And how many people do you think might fit into said category?

 

[orbital]

+

Then you'll have Hybrid or Hydrogen Hybrid ect..

It is coming.

Hydrogen internal 'combustion' racing will eventually take over.
FIA & other governing bodies are already leaning in that direction.

Hydrogen Hybrid, I feel is the future.

You use the electric early on in power delivery, then transition to the hydrogen engine once going.
The understanding how to use both forms of power has been refined (thanks to racing)

 

[turbodog]

+

Then you'll have Hybrid or Hydrogen Hybrid ect..

It is coming.

Hydrogen internal 'combustion' racing will eventually take over.
FIA & other governing bodies are already leaning in that direction.

Hydrogen Hybrid, I feel is the future.

You use the electric early on in power delivery, then transition to the hydrogen engine once going.
The understanding how to use both forms of power has been refined (thanks to racing)

I really question whether hydrogen will be used at all as it has a very unique, and dangerous, chemical property. It ignites in air at a HUGE range of concentrations.

Most people don't know this... gasoline/propane/methane/etc only combust at a very narrow range of concentrations. The flammability limits of hydrogen in air are very wide, from 4% to 75%, and the detonation limits narrower, from 18.3% to 59% at atmospheric pressure. The limits are proportionately wider for a pure oxygen (4% to 90+%) atmosphere. The ignition temperature in air is very low, at 585°C, and the flame can reach a temperature of just over 2000°C.


I recommend: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_safety

 

[turbodog]

...

I'm sure EV charing infrastructure will grow, but it will take a huge amount of time to still fall short of be viable for everyone/the vast majority.

...

Yup. Even if all that was free... it would take a decade (wild guess) to actually install it.

 

[orbital]

+

It's easy to bang on about the dangers of lithium batteries, or the dangers of Li-Po batteries, or the dangers of nuclear power, or the dangers of Hydrogen, or the dangers of.................................................................................................................


Anything with potential energy/power can be looked at as being dangerous. Depends on who's writing/subsidizing it.


It's really easy to burn coal & oil, REALLY REALLY easy,, but that is finite.
50 years from now, things will be fundamentally different.

 

[Chauncey Gardiner]

+

It's easy to bang on about the dangers of lithium batteries, or the dangers of Li-Po batteries, or the dangers of nuclear power, or the dangers of Hydrogen, or the dangers of.................................................................................................................


Anything with potential energy/power can be looked at as being dangerous. Depends on who's writing/subsidizing it.


It's really easy to burn coal & oil, REALLY REALLY easy,, but that is finite.
50 years from now, things will be fundamentally different.

Even wood pellets in a pellet stove can go bang if one is careless.

 

[orbital]

+

I'll add this so people don't get too confused,
would I love a big Cummins turbo diesel truck = absolutely

 

[adnj]

Again this just isn't practical in the 'real' world. Lots and lots of people do not have parking at home. And parking at work is unlikely to ever have enough charge points for every car. Not too mention COVID has had a distinct shift of people working from home and not in offices. i.e. far less people parking in a works car park.

I've asked this a number of times over the years, and not once have seen anyone give an answer.

This is a very common type of residential street in the UK.

People park on the road in non allocated spaces. Household also on average probably have somewhere between 2 and 4 cars.

It is physically impossible to charge home, as you have no guarantee of even parking close to your home. And obviously you cannot run extension cables out across the path to your car. The only option is to offer enough charing points for every single car..

But that is a huge effort to install in every city, town, village and hamlet across the western world and beyond. And in many cases completely impractical and it will cost a fortune.

I'm sure EV charing infrastructure will grow, but it will take a huge amount of time to still fall short of be viable for everyone/the vast majority.


You are also saying charing at work. So this increases costs further, as you are saying for every car that parks on a street and in a works car park, you will need 2 charing points per vehicle to make it viable. Where is all this funding going to come from?

Again ignoring the fact that many works carparks don't even have enough space for all of their workers, so people end up parking all over the show. And filling a car park with charge points will also reduce the capacity of cars that can park in it.



Don't misunderstand me. I am NOT against EV's. I just do not see how they are viable as the only solution. And this is before you even get to discussing the vehicles themselves.

Which is probably why there are several big players looking at alternatives to EVs still.



Not really.

EV sales are bolstered because of Government incentives on reduced pricing and other benefits, such as free parking, exemption from certain charges and free/low road tax.

Also some of the sales probably included in these figures are likely cop outs. I know in the UK the BMW 330e was hugely popular, because as a company car it cost the employee a lot less money in terms of tax than the comparable non 'e' model. And the vast majority are then just used as regular cars, not bothering to charge them up.

With out the tax incentive (i.e. more money in your pocket). They simply wouldn't not have sold on the merits of being an EV hybrid.


However just because sales are up overall has no direct bearing on the limitations of the infrastructure and the simple fact that an EV just isn't a viable option for many many people.


Answer this:


- You have no charge point near your home, you have no off road parking/drive-way, there are no charing points at your place of work ---- How do you charge and run an EV?

- And how many people do you think might fit into said category?

Overnight at-home street parking in the EU and US is about 25% of all vehicles. Additionally, charge times for new battery technologies is targeted to match the refill time of ICE.

There is a great amount of technological improvement to be had in fuel cell, battery and wireless charging technology. There will likely be hybrid EV for the use scenarios that seem to be your pain points but the economies of ICE complexity point to moving toward electrification.

---------

Electric car batteries with five-minute charging times produced

Exclusive: first factory production means recharging could soon be as fast as filling up petrol or diesel vehicles

Batteries capable of fully charging in five minutes have been produced in a factory for the first time, marking a significant step towards electric cars becoming as fast to charge as filling up petrol or diesel vehicles.

Electric vehicles are a vital part of action to tackle the climate crisis but running out of charge during a journey is a worry for drivers. The new lithium-ion batteries were developed by the Israeli company StoreDot and manufactured by Eve Energy in China on standard production lines.

StoreDot has already demonstrated its “extreme fast-charging” battery in phones, drones and scooters and the 1,000 batteries it has now produced are to showcase its technology to carmakers and other companies. Daimler, BP, Samsung and TDK have all invested in StoreDot, which has raised $130m to date and was named a Bloomberg New Energy Finance Pioneer in 2020.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...es-race-ahead-with-five-minute-charging-times

Sent from my LG-V520 using Tapatalk

 

[turbodog]

+

It's easy to bang on about the dangers of lithium batteries, or the dangers of Li-Po batteries, or the dangers of nuclear power, or the dangers of Hydrogen, or the dangers of.................................................................................................................


Anything with potential energy/power can be looked at as being dangerous. Depends on who's writing/subsidizing it.


It's really easy to burn coal & oil, REALLY REALLY easy,, but that is finite.
50 years from now, things will be fundamentally different.

I agree that things are dangerous that store concentrated energy. And we can find different alloys for lithium, etc to make it less dangerous. But we are not dealing with a Hydrogen compound. Elemental Hydrogen will always have these properties, full stop. Its ignition energy is 7% of that of natural gas.

It's got a few properties that are less dangerous than gasoline/nat gas/propane explosions, but it really is some nasty stuff overall for leaks & ignition. And REALLY long term... H2 leaks escape into space... never to be seen again. So if we crack water to make H2... we are sending precious water into space gradually.

Nuclear has to make a larger presence. Gates funded research into a reactor that can't meltdown and burns spent fuel from OTHER reactors/weapons. Nukes for base load and solar for daytime surges. Problem solved.

 

[idleprocess]

And how is that directly relevant, you still need the actual CHARGE point, which costs thousands to install, be it £ or $.

A plug-in home charger can be had for <$300 that will push some ~19 miles range per hour for even the most inefficient EVs w/ 400 Wh/mile ratings, or ~29 miles range per hour for something like a Model 3 @ 257 Wh/mile rating. Unlike the EVs of 20 years ago that had significant electronics in the charger, these are pretty simple devices that add a layer of safety and convenience to attaching a large electrical load to the building's panel.

A public charger that offers >7kW charging and billing is another matter - those will cost appreciably more.

And this totally ignores the fact that there is not yet a standardisation of plug types or tech that is going into charge points.

Not sure about Europe, but here in the US it's pretty much down to Tesla and J1772 with adapters are available for both.

Sorry, not sure what a dryer outlet is.

Minimum 30A 240V dedicated circuit in the US. I imagine something analogous is available in most European dwellings.

However charing some of the new EV cars off a regular home plug still takes way too long to be your only means of transport for the vast majority. And as said repeatedly, not everyone will have access to be able to plug an EV in at home anyway.

If you're in the business of emergency trumpet repair, an EV isn't for you. But a large majority of drivers are commuting far shorter round-trip distances than their vehicle's maximum range.

My commute in the before times was 30 miles each way - long-ish even for the sprawling DFW area. But even with some random errands and excursions I'm rarely going to hit even 100 miles in a day - well within the envelope of both modern EV's with >200 miles range and overnight home charging @ 7kw.

RV parks I doubt are the same voltage as the fast charing superchargers that Tesla use.

They don't. But they also lack the protection protocols baked into the Tesla and J1772 standards that won't energize the primary conductors until the handshake between vehicle and charger is complete.

And the risk profile is completely different, as you are unlikely to have a road traffic accident in an RV park, but hugely likely to encounter them on public roads in busy areas. Even down to simple accidents such as reversing or driving into the charge point by mistake. The more charge points there are, the more risk there is of this happening.

Ground-level transformers present a similar risk and have been a thing for decades. They're generally located in stout housings, optionally with bollards around them. As a client device on the electrical network, high-power chargers will have breakers that throw when a fault is detected.

Parking like this is quite common across the UK and many places in Europe. Where you can't even be guaranteed to park on the same street as your house, let alone outside it. The only way to make EV charing viable for locations like this would be to provide a charge point for every single car, taking up space on the footpath (side walk).

It's also common in the United States in older cities with row homes as well as no small percentage of multi-dwelling units that don't provide dedicated parking. EVs are not presently going to be very practical for those situations unless consistent charging access is available elsewhere - such as at work or convenient public charging. Solutions are likely to come about should EVs become more prevalent.

Petrol has proven to be relatively safe, hence why it is so widely used. Cars don't just explode when in a crash.

Relatively safe, sure. But gasoline-powered cars burn down all the time and no one gets excited. Thanks to decades of safety engineering, the occupants tend to have ample time to escape in a crash severe enough to cause a fire for gasoline- and battery-powered vehicles alike.

Things may well change, gearing serves a purpose on vehicle depending on the specific needs. And sometimes it is beneficial to have more than one gear. For every setup there will be pros and cons.

Electric motors have a far wider RPM range than reciprocating-piston engines, have relatively flat efficiency across said range, and generate peak torque when stalled. Not sure how many applications will spin up the motor past max RPM but still have power margin for additional gearing.

 

[ledbetter]

Nuclear has to make a larger presence. Gates funded research into a reactor that can't meltdown and burns spent fuel from OTHER reactors/weapons. Nukes for base load and solar for daytime surges. Problem solved.[/QUOTE]


“Midnight in Chernobyl” is definitely worth reading and I am pretty sick of the holier than thou EV drivers, especially here in California, because most electricity is still derived from natural gas and coal. And even if it’s not, the negatives of solar and wind on weather and animals is not negligible. There’s nothing green about energy.

 

[turbodog]

“Midnight in Chernobyl” is definitely worth reading and I am pretty sick of the holier than thou EV drivers, especially here in California, because most electricity is still derived from natural gas and coal. And even if it’s not, the negatives of solar and wind on weather and animals is not negligible. There’s nothing green about energy.

Well, two things. First, I lied. I'm really a 100% nuke advocate with natural gas for peak load service. I just throw solar in there to not **** people off that are 'green'. Second, can't tell if you are for/against nukes... you clearly are not 100% behind solar/wind.