Coronavirus - II

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chillinn

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And to paraphrase one of my heroes, Charlie Munger;
":thumbsup:"

Like I said, 'no dog in this fight'; there was a prompt for information so I supplied it.
Not really a conversation topic I personally get animated about, that's all.

Alright then, you may rest on the fallacy of infinite ignorance. But I still expect you to follow up in your own time about the polio vaccines, and then correct my errors, but I think I got the big picture roughly communicated almost correctly.
 
nbp

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The main difference I see is that most of things we are vaccinated for as kids like measles, mumps, rubella, whatever, have extremely effective vaccines that essentially last a lifetime. The COVID19 vaccine is speculated to end up being about 50% effective, will likely impart immunity for a few months to a year or two based on data about other coronaviruses we contract, and the virus will probably keep mutating. So unless they can nail the strain every year with an exceptionally effective vaccine and then administer 250 million doses to Americans annually, a vaccine will not be the panacea some claim, IMO. If the flu is any indication, that’s not likely. Get used to C19, it’s part of life now.
 
nbp

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Alright then, you may rest on the fallacy of infinite ignorance. But I still expect you to follow up in your own time about the polio vaccines, and then correct my errors, but I think I got the big picture roughly communicated almost correctly.

There were so many words I zoned out halfway through your post about polio to be honest.
 
Kestrel

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Alright then, you may rest on the fallacy of infinite ignorance. [...]
Not sure what you /think/ you mean here, but members are only given so many opportunities for insulting CPF membership & Staff directly.
 
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turbodog

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...

Regarding artificial immunizations and herd immunity: IF the immunization actually works, then those who are immunized have nothing to fear from those who are not.

I'm not so sure on this one. At first glance it seems correct. If you think a little further... don't know.

We know that c-19 mutates. AFAIK all mutations are still similar enough so one vaccine covers them all. So if we get enough people vaccinated it could actually be eliminated completely.

If we let a large pool of people continue to harbor the virus it could/will mutate further. Consensus from various sources say only like 40% of the US plans on taking a vaccine. If it goes far enough the vaccine could be useless. It could get more/less virulent. And so on.

In addition... if 60% of the US can catch this perpetually... the economic impact will be catastrophic.
 
bykfixer

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Look up swine flu vaccine debacle 1976 and you can see what can go wrong.

I have coworkers who got it and got really really sick from it. It was thought to be round 4 of the Spanish flu, unbeknown at the time that rounds 2 and 3 had already occured. Recent studies have revealed that some influenza outbreaks were strains kin to the Spanish flu.

An outbreak at Fort Dix in the 1970's was thought to be a Spanish flu so the US government did a campaign to get everybody vaccinated in a hurry. Some shots had live virus! Some had the wrong ingredients and some people died. That's why much of the Korean War and WW2 generation said "hellnaw I aint taking a flu vaccine" after the great debacle of 1976.

I'm a bit of a tin hat persona so I'm more concerned about micro trackers or personality alterations from government sanctioned (and required) vaccines. I was inoculated as a kid, but that was long long long before nano technologies we have today. So I'll wait in line, but at the rear……
 
night.hoodie

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Look up swine flu vaccine debacle 1976 and you can see what can go wrong

I didn't want to post in this thread, then I did, and post was removed. Tempers seem high, and I don't want involved. But I have been following the thread for weeks, and I found your reference, and learned something.

I just wanted to make a small point, but it may take a few cracks to make it.

How do you think today's LED flashlights compare to LED flashlights from 15 years ago? Let me answer for you. Today's LED flashlights are hella more efficient and hella brighter.

Between 1980 and 1985, medicine had advanced further than in all the years previous. And medicine has been doing that every five years since. So between 2015 and 2020, the advancements in medicine have exceeded those in all previous years.

When your car breaks down, and your mechanic tells you that you need a new water pump, do you question him if you know absolutely nothing about internal combustion engines?

Ignorance and fear does not, can not possibility produce better results than rational science and the compiled knowledge of man-centuries.

I'll leave you all with a couple quotes.

Pessimism is the scarecrow that fear erects in the watermelon patch of the future to frighten away the timid souls so the feast may be richer for the few who are not afraid.
-Honorable Member for Grey North, Canada 1867/68

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.
Frank Herbert
 
scout24

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When my mechanic tells me I need a new water pump, I have the option, if not the responsibility to do my due diligence and get a second opinion. Your apparent faith in the same institutions that run your state's Department of Motor Vehicles and Veteran's healthcare facilities makes me smile.

Fancy quotes notwithstanding.
 
bykfixer

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Nice to see ya hoodie. Welcome to the discussion.

I realize medical tech has become amazing since 1976, some due to zero gravity research. But a touchdown is still 6 points and mass production still has occasional hiccups that make it out of the factory doors.

Plus as I said, my tin hat tendancies (as a long term Coast to Coast listener) has me thinking conspiracy stuff more than flaws in the medicine. :whistle:
 
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night.hoodie

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dragging me in...

bykfixer, touchdown well made, got me thinking if you weren't, if the pandemic were a football game, the goal for the virus is our nose and eye ducts, the grid iron is everywhere, every surface, and the defensive plays are astounding and tremendously complicated and have to be oh so precise, but we never switch sides, and with one score the game is lost.

scout24, when your dealer is your mechanic, where do you go for a second opinion?
 
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scout24

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I go to the independent guy I know who is a straight shooter and isn't bound by the manufacturer to make a certain number of book hours a month.
 
night.hoodie

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I go to the independent guy I know who is a straight shooter and isn't bound by the manufacturer to make a certain number of book hours a month.

LOL They don't actually work all those hours. There is a book they go by with standard hours listed per job, which they use for billing labor, whether they work all those hours or not. You're probably aware, IOW, book says job takes 2 hours, but the mechanic gets it done in 45 minutes, still charges you 2 hours.

I religiously used independent mechanics, formed relationships and trust spanning years, until I got a relatively modern car, 2011 model, and it is so complex with computers and new systems only the dealer can be trusted to work on it. Kind of blows. I used to have some small understanding of how stuff worked, now in all the modern cars one is lucky to figure out where the battery is.
 
SCEMan

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I used to have some small understanding of how stuff worked, now in all the modern cars one is lucky to figure out where the battery is.

So true. Sam's Club wouldn't put a new battery in my Audi Quattro sedan, said the dealer had to reset the system software. I took the battery home and swapped it myself.
 
turbodog

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So true. Sam's Club wouldn't put a new battery in my Audi Quattro sedan, said the dealer had to reset the system software. I took the battery home and swapped it myself.

Sounds like BMW, which stands for 'bring my wallet' if you didn't know!
 
bykfixer

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DC1-AB49-B-DB48-440-C-BE4-A-AEFF0-CC50-C17.jpg
 
night.hoodie

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The proper technique escapes some breeds...

8OL3vNt.jpg

7fKftLo.jpg
 
scout24

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LOL They don't actually work all those hours. There is a book they go by with standard hours listed per job, which they use for billing labor, whether they work all those hours or not. You're probably aware, IOW, book says job takes 2 hours, but the mechanic gets it done in 45 minutes, still charges you 2 hours.
I religiously used independent mechanics, formed relationships and trust spanning years, until I got a relatively modern car, 2011 model, and it is so complex with computers and new systems only the dealer can be trusted to work on it. Kind of blows. I used to have some small understanding of how stuff worked, now in all the modern cars one is lucky to figure out where the battery is.

I believe you unknowingly made my point in the first portion of your response. The manufacturer likes to see xxxx number of book hours per month based on number of vehicles seen. They charge based on book time. They care not for customer loyalty. My independent shop charges based on time taken, and wants happy repeat business. One operates blindly based on greed, one operates based on keeping it's customers happy.

I was using an analogy in my response to you, not looking for a discussion tangent. Back on topic please.
 
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night.hoodie

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I think this may help understanding why modern vaccines can not infect the vaccinated with the very virus they aim to prevent. chillim already seems to have covered why the polio vaccine is different, that in aggressive attempts to eradicate polio globally, many in Third World counties require a single dose vaccine that contains weakened strains of polio virus, while residents of First World countries can reasonably receive a vaccine containing dead virus with a timed booster later.

When the first polio vaccine was developed in 1935, medical science simply was not up to today's standards, and early tests on live subjects with vaccines containing live virus proved to be catastrophic. 85 years ago, fission had not yet been discovered, travel by horse still dominated the country side and continued to do so until the end of the Depression in 1939, freezers wouldn't enter the home until 1940, air conditioning in the home would not become commonplace until the 1950s, and manned spaceflight would not appear until the early 1960s. In the 1930's, life expectancy at birth was only 58 for men and 62 for women, compared to today's 78.93 years. That's just crazy, so in a lot of respects, 1935 was a very different world.


You can't get flu from a flu shot. Here's why.

Searching for information about the vaccines being developed for coronavirus vaccines, I found this.
None of the early vaccines being tested by Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, or Johnson & Johnson are live weakened versions (similar, for example, to the measles, mumps, rubella, or varicella vaccines). Moderna’s and Pfizer’s are mRNA vaccines, and AstraZeneca’s and Johnson & Johnson’s are non-replicating vectored vaccines. SOURCE

While there are myriad strategies for developing coronavirus vaccine, and one therefore must include the idea of using weakened live virus, no one is working on that strategy, though it is possible it may become necessary for certain populations... but very likely not in the United States and other First World or even Second World nations.

So to pick the exception in polio virus from problems occurring half a century ago, and spread fear and doubt saying, "vaccines can infect you," is an incredibly irresponsible and scientifically ignorant statement, and for residents of the United States in 2020, simply untrue.

Everyone wants to be smartest, but few are willing to do the work required to actually know everything about a subject, and I do not claim such knowledge of anything. If one person says Benjamin Franklin discovered electricity in 1759, someone else may argue it was William Gilbert who coined the term in 1600, while someone that may know less about the history of science might have heard about the Bagdad Batteries estimated to be from 250BC. Having a few random facts is not knowledge, it is trivia.. Thus it is trivia (not trivial) that early polio vaccines caused infection and killed a handful of children with polio in the early live experiments in the mid-1930's, but it is not at all knowledge of the medical state of vaccines today, and why would anyone trust something like that? Almost half a million people died from smoking last year, so why would you smoke? (FWIW, I smoke. **** off.) More than 40,000 people were killed in a car accident last year, so why would you still own and drive a car? Over 500 people were killed by their own gun last year, so why would you own a gun? Be smart, not a smart ***. Be rational. If a vaccine is released today in the United States (perhaps not under this particular administration), you better believe it has been tested and it is safe, and it is best for you and for everyone to be vaccinated as soon as possible.

Why mess with that kind of Karma?
 
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nbp

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Amazing, it’s like chillinn is still here with us in this very thread....
 
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