What's the process when the LEDS are manufactured? Are they similar to computer chips which have "yield" rates? Do some have less defects than others and the "bin" categories represent the ones that work from best to worst? Or is the machinery retooled every few months and they all come out the same?
I'm not sure anyone not working on Cree knows the details. The LEDs are probably similar to computer chips in so far as them being produced in batches, but there still being some individual variability.
If we assume that the data cmacclel has contributed is proportional to luminous output, then that could imply for example that Cree made batches of a few thousand, tested a sampling of these, and labeled that particular batch according to the outcome of their samples. It could also be that all batches where their samples failed to comply with their minimum criteria for a given upper batch are labeled "P4" or whatever the lowest batch is called at the time, leading to extreme variability in output in samples from the lowest batch.
I plugged his data into Excel, and:
30 P4 samples yielded
Average output:341
Standard deviation:58
12 Q5 samples yielded
Average output:423
Standard deviation:72
Note that comparing averages, his Q5 samples averaged 423/341=1.24 or 24% higher output than the P4s, whereas Cree bin data would suggest 110/84=1.31 or 31% higher output for the Q5. This is pretty close, particularly considering that the Q5 bin is the top drawer, and would thus tend towards the lower part of the bin, and the P4 is the current bottom drawer.
So his average results are, bearing in mind the smallish sample on the Q5s, pretty much in line with what we would expect, it's just the
spread that is shocking. Indicating perhaps, that the bins actually just indicate where the average luminous output of that particular batch ended up, rather than having individually binned chips.
This is what the data indicate, and lacking better information, I'm inclined to believe this is the case.
Of course, it makes the value of paying for a higher bin that much more of a lottery.