I come across this research paper which answer all my questions on life of LED. The reseacher drive the LED with different current and measure the light output over 2000 hours. A must see for those buiding LED lights. No more guesswork on how hard to drive them.
http://www.lrc.rpi.edu/Library/Conference/NN_ies1.pdf
http://www.lrc.rpi.edu/Library/Conference/NN_ies1.pdf