El Nino storm season has begun

Hooked on Fenix

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Right now, in California, we are in a severe drought. Most people here would love some rain to put out the fires and give us much needed water. However, it looks like we may get what we asked for (and too much of it) this season. What was a tropical depression Thursday has grown to a Category 4 Hurricane Amanda. The first storm of the year is a Category 4. See for yourself: http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php. Now so far, everyone is saying that this hurricane will have no effect on the land other than some thunderstorms when it breaks up. I'm not really worried about this hurricane. What I'm concerned with is the fact that the first storm of the season was a Category 4 hurricane that came out of nowhere in 3 days right off the coast of Mexico. We normally have cooler waters that prevent this. Apparently, the waters are warm enough to feed storms this strong and this early in the season. This is going to be a very active summer. I'm hoping we get rain, but not from a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.
 

Hooked on Fenix

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Hurricane Amanda is now a Category 5 hurricane according to http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php. The last update that I have seen from NOAA put it at sustained winds of 155 mph. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/250239.shtml. It is still growing stronger. It is now the strongest ever recorded hurricane in the east Pacific during the month of May. It was also the earliest Category 4 (now Category 5) in the eastern Pacific. In comparision, no hurricane has ever reached Category 4 strength in the Atlantic during May. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropics-showing-signs-of-life-1/27406046. To be clear, on average, it takes until June 26 for the first hurricane to form in this area. It takes on average until July 19 for the first major hurricane to form in this area. This hurricane is almost 2 months early compared to the average and broke the record for the largest (in May) and earliest hurricane in the eastern Pacific (and it is the first one of the season). All forcasts say that it will weaken and break up in the coming days. Let's hope those forcasts are right. Whether or not this hurricane strikes land or does absolutely nothing, it should be noted that the conditions are perfect now for more record breaking hurricanes during this season due to El Nino. Usually, you get several tropical depressions and named tropical storms before getting a first hurricane. This year, the first storm of the season shot up to the highest classification of hurricane in four days, two months ahead of schedule.
 
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Hooked on Fenix

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Hurricane Amanda is beginning to weaken with sustained winds near 150 mph as of 2 PM. This is down from sustained winds of 155 mph with gusts to 190 mph this morning. It is now a strong Category 4 hurricane. This morning, it was right at the line between a Category 4 and a Category 5. The forecast track puts it a little south of Baja California and off the coast of central Mexico before it runs out of steam and falls apart. If it doesn't fall apart soon enough, I could see the potential of it hitting central Mexico as a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, but even if that doesn't happen, all that moisture is going to go somewhere. Expect some rain within Mexico and the Four Corners area of the U.S. when this thing falls apart. Flooding could be a real possibility.
 

Hooked on Fenix

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Update:
As of 8 A.M. on 5/26/14, Hurricane Amanda has weakened slightly. Maximum sustained winds are now at 135 mph. It is still a Category 4 hurricane. It is travelling NNW (345 degrees) at 5 mph. It is about 680 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California.
 

Hooked on Fenix

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As of 2 P.M on 5/26/14, Hurricane Amanda has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane. It has maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. It is about 670 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California travelling NNW (335 degrees) at 5 mph. It is forecast to be a tropical storm by Wednesday.
 

AnAppleSnail

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Here on the East coast, we had hurricanes during droughts. They do indeed bring a fair bit of water, a foot or so, but so much of it runs away. You'd be looking for more erosion than irrigation in the farmlands. You guys watch out for flash floods and washouts. Be safe,

-snaily
 

Hooked on Fenix

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Hurricane Amanda has been significantly weakened today. It is now as of 8 p.m. a tropical storm with 70 mph sustained winds. The last update put it at 605 miles south of the tip of Baja California. Tropical storm force winds still extend out 90 miles from the center.
 

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Our second major hurricane, Hurricane Cristina has just reached Category 4 strength with sustained winds of 145 mph. This is only the third named storm and 2 of the 3 have now become major hurricanes. While Hurricane Amanda broke a couple records, this one broke one as well. Hurricane Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane in the east Pacific since reliable records started in 1971. This breaks the old record from Hurricane Darby in 2010 by 13 days. While this hurricane is not expected to affect land other than some rain, higher tides, and rip currents, It should be noted that as the warmer waters head north due to El Nino later this year, the conditions are excellent for record breaking devastating hurricanes.

Update: As of 8 a.m., Hurricane Cristina has sustained winds of 150 mph. It is expected to stay about the same strength until tonight when it is expected to start weakening.
 
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LGT

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Hopefully these storms won't have a direct hit but will bring some nice saturating rains to your area. Not the flash flood type that cause all sorts of pfoblems without remedying the dry conditions.
 
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