dang, yaesumofo you ask a very interesting question, I spent quite a bit of time yesterday typing in a post, only to have the CPF server act up again and crashing down the browser, taking the post with it. In the meantime, I see many other good posts saying a lot of what I had put down.
Basically I think that, yes, with the new output efficiencies, most luxeons are toast. Nobody buys a computer that is several years old anymore, and this should also happen for outdated LEDs in an environment where the technology is advancing rapidly. But, as we approach those efficiency limits, the same thing will happen as with computers (which have also been reaching limits), with longevity increasing again.
There are important niches - I just got one of the streamlight propolys with multiple LEDs (supposedly already outdated). Yet, with a manufacturer claimed runtime of 336 hours, and a tough yet light shell, this flashlight can serve as a survivor tool. The beam is nothing special, just a blob of light really, but you can see most of what there is to see in a room.
I've been upgrading my flashlight supply recently, getting rid of lots of older LEDs and getting new ones. To do this I spent some time comparing the specs of many flashlights, including the latest luxeons. Basically, I had concluded that the Lux-III and Lux-Vs were not yet acceptable because of the very short runtimes. The exception is if you use a large form factor - for instance, putting in a K2 based replacement into a 3xD Maglite gets great output, runtime probably measured in days, and does the job the Maglite used to do.
But the small, 1xcr123a or 2xcr123a flashlights I saw sporting a multi-watt luxeon were toys rather than tools in my opinon. With the new crees, the runtime vs. luminosity charts have suddenly become useable. In fact I didn't buy any of the lux flashlights (with one specialized exception), and am now waiting to see how the new crop of flashlights shakes out, and then I'll buy one or two new ones.
Finally, just wanted to thank you, yaesumofo, for a number of helpful posts of yours, I spent quite a bit of time following up your info on the McGizmos, for instance, and found myself also in complete agreement with your views on the mizer settings - runtime is ALWAYS important!
flashy bazook