Huge menacing sunspot

Hooked on Fenix

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Sunspot 3590 is now directly facing earth and is about half the size of the Carrington Event sunspot. It has already shot out back to back X1+ solar flares followed by an X6.3. Luckily, those flares caused no threat to earth. However, there is a 70% chance of more M class flares and a 30% chance of more X class flares over the next 48 hours. Time will tell if we get any CMEs producing geomagnetic storms that light up the skies with auroras, another Carrington like event, or simply nothing happens. Seems like something to keep a close eye on though. Just don't actually stare at the sun.
 

Hooked on Fenix

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Sunspot 3590 is now 60% the size of the Carrington Event sunspot. It grew by 25% in the last 48 hours.
 

LRJ88

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We'll be fine.
 

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PhotonWrangler

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The Carrington event did happen, so we have a baseline to compare subsequent events against. And if it happened before, it can happen again, only the next time it'll blow out much more stuff.
 

Hooked on Fenix

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Yes, but sooner or later, if nothing happens, that moniker is going to stick. Is this two or three that you've posted about? 🤓
We got lucky last week when that X6.3 solar flare from this same sunspot (the largest solar flare of this cycle) was short in duration and wasn't targeted directly at earth. If conditions were right, that one flare could have caused blackouts in Canada and maybe some of the Northern U.S. states (if it was aimed at earth and long enough to produce a CME). It's already proven to be pretty dangerous shooting out multiple X class flares. Since the sunspot popped off three X class flares in about a day, it hasn't shot off anything larger than an M class. Instead, it's been rapidly growing in size since, meaning it has potential for stronger solar flares now. Also, it's now aimed toward earth for the next few days. It could shoot out an X20 flare and cause some serious damage or pop one off once it's safely on the backside of the sun. It could also break apart on it's own and do absolutely nothing.

We have three scenarios:
1. Nothing happens
2. Cool light show
3. More time to play with your lights than you wanted

I never said the sky was falling.
 

Hooked on Fenix

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Big CME is on the way. It came from two powerful sunspots firing at the same time, AR3614 (previously known as AR3590, which survived the transit around the sun) and AR3615 which has been shooting off several M class flares. This caused a long duration (5 hours) X1.1 class flare aimed directly at earth. X class flare was followed by several long duration M class flares. CME is expected to arrive late March 24 as a G3 solar storm and spark geomagnetic storms through March 25. Good time to see auroras.
 

PhotonWrangler

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Big CME is on the way. It came from two powerful sunspots firing at the same time, AR3614 (previously known as AR3590, which survived the transit around the sun) and AR3615 which has been shooting off several M class flares. This caused a long duration (5 hours) X1.1 class flare aimed directly at earth. X class flare was followed by several long duration M class flares. CME is expected to arrive late March 24 as a G3 solar storm and spark geomagnetic storms through March 25. Good time to see auroras.
Thanks for the heads-up, HOF.
 

Hooked on Fenix

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CME has started a G4 geomagnetic storm and it's here early. Unfortunately, it's not over the U.S. and Canada, but on the other side of the planet (Asia, Australia, New Zealand). Europe might get a view if it continues for a few hours.
 
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