Inflation -> recession

bykfixer

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Comedy galore here.
Yeah, Labron, Bill Gates, Barack Obama, Waren Buffet, Samuel Jackson... so on and so forth are just going give away their wealth so the little people can have more time for art and other activities known as leisure by most. Riiiiight. Next thing you know ESPN will tell the NFL "we'll show your games for free". lol. Then the gubment is going to reduce... oh wait, gubment is good, capitalism bad.

5D49AB66-CF14-458B-AA0D-0EC85148C448.jpeg
 

rwolfenstein

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Gotta get this thing to crash so I can buy a house and decent interest rates. Right now, just waiting on the ebs and flows.
 

jtr1962

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Comedy galore here.
Yeah, Labron, Bill Gates, Barack Obama, Waren Buffet, Samuel Jackson... so on and so forth are just going give away their wealth so the little people can have more time for art and other activities known as leisure by most. Riiiiight. Next thing you know ESPN will tell the NFL "we'll show your games for free". lol. Then the gubment is going to reduce... oh wait, gubment is good, capitalism bad.
Who's giving away anything? You're conflating the idea of a UBI and automated production of most goods/services with taking money from the wealthy. Granted, if this system were in place it would eventually become much harder to become super wealthy, and for those already wealthy much of their wealthy would eventually disappear, but that's a side effect, not the primary goal. The primary goal is to provide everyone at least a minimal standard of living regardless of their means or ability. Anything beyond that, you earn it.

Nobody is suggesting making optional stuff like sports free.
 

jtr1962

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Gotta get this thing to crash so I can buy a house and decent interest rates. Right now, just waiting on the ebs and flows.
My attitude as well. Can't wait for a housing crash so maybe those who are locked into renting now can finally buy a place of their own. It'll benefit me also since I'll have to pay a lot less to buy my siblings out of their share of the house.
 

rwolfenstein

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My attitude as well. Can't wait for a housing crash so maybe those who are locked into renting now can finally buy a place of their own. It'll benefit me also since I'll have to pay a lot less to buy my siblings out of their share of the house.
Even if I get a starter home, I am okay with that. I just like my own space that I can do anything I want to it. (Mostly because I want a big floofy doggo to come home to and the rental company doesnt like pets. I believe children destroy way more than a trained doggo does but I guess you cannot regulate children) I am tired of these rental companies and their lack of care. Granted I live in a state that is very hostile toward rental companies, but it shouldnt be a war. Plus, I am making way more now than I was before. I am just waiting on the new union contract to go through so I can get a pay increase that would compensate for the inflation.
 

idleprocess

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@jtr1962 you have got to learn to multi-quote...

I have little doubt machines will be able to do most jobs humans do, and better, in less than a generation.
Eh, AI has indeed been nicking at employment for some time now, but the present generative flavours are crashing their own hype cycle even faster than previous versions. The possibilities of a ~decade of training data are being exhausted in months while its biases and errors are becoming glaringly apparent. And there's the very real possibility that AI output gets fed back into the AI and the tsunami of bulls__t rolls in with an intensifying feedback loop.

Right now driverless vehicles still drive better than most humans. The problem is they're not perfect.
They might handle interstate driving better than humans, but that's the simplest level 2 (with very few level 3) autonomy - basically adaptive cruise control under relatively consistent conditions with minimal contingencies, which they handle rather poorly. Level 4 and 5 remain a ways off - especially in the less controlled conditions of 2-lane highway and city driving.

In fact, it's a shame that many talented engineers are lost as supervisors because that's the only path for them to increase their salaries.
While I do not doubt that the Peter Principle is at play to a degree, people also develop over time and move out of prior roles to the benefit of us all. Some very good engineers will choose to undertake more complex engineering tasks while others will find value in providing guidance or even leadership for other engineers. Or perhaps they wish to move on to other things and take on new challenges, grow, and reinvent themselves.

I'd say all jobs suck, if you define a job as something you do at least 40 hours a week.
Used to work with a fella whose job title was something like installer, but called himself a glorified pipefitter. He had this philosophy that work has three essential components:
  • Difficult : It will challenge you somehow - either in terms of physical or mental effort
  • Not inherently fun : It is not something that someone would ordinarily pay to do
  • More of it than you can do in a day : It will routinely occupy an entire workday
None of this is to say that work is something that's 100% exhausting, grim, and you end each day further behind - simply that these elements are all present to varying degrees in jobs. With experience the burdens reduce and one can find satisfaction and fulfillment in mastering a skill or a role.

Ha yep. You could take everyone's money and distribute it equally… and in a few years the same people would be rich again and the same ones would be **** *** broke again
Outside of coffee shop revolutionaries I've yet to encounter anyone advocating for either massive redistribution nor arguing that wealth would not quickly re-concentrate itself.

no yachts = job destruction
no private jets = job destruction
While the capital costs of said goods don't just vanish into the aether and the ongoing employment they generate loops back into the economy, they're economically inefficient relative to investment in revenue-producing enterprises.

However, the level of criticism heaped upon them seems to be markedly greater than their impact on the economy.

oh wait, gubment is good, capitalism bad.
Capitalism has done well by me and I bring what I believe to be a solid a value proposition to the table. But I am not unaware that accidents of my birth, some strokes of luck, and timing played a role as well. There's also a growing slice of the populace for whom the American dream is moving away from them faster than they can possibly run that's fueling some of the present wave of criticism.
 

turbodog

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...

Your business is a paper asset until such time as you sell it. Big difference from having actual money in the bank or in investments.
...

So you're forced to burn anything in excess of 10M? Right.

And no, it's about the same as other investments. There are risks. There are good/bad years. I pull a salary for my work and a distribution from excess profits beyond that. I could hire someone to run it. I could sell it. Etc.

I'm actually reading your arguments. These are not ones you will win as you're not arguing against me. You're arguing against 200 years of economic history and the fruits of capitalism, results which have propelled ALL standards of living upwards to a degree and velocity of which the world has _never_ seen. Nice book on this called 'the 5000 year leap'.

You're armchair quarterbacking worldwide economic policy yet haven't worked a public full time job for most of your adult life? This isn't a personal attack. This is saying you are a nice guy, but lack the schema, the background, the lens to interpret the subject matter at hand.
 

jtr1962

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So you're forced to burn anything in excess of 10M? Right.
A better qualifier might be whether or not the wealth is business assets. Business assets really shouldn't count towards the total as they've invested in a productive enterprise. I've long argued that trickle down economics is a failure because taxing the wealthy less seldom results in that extra money being put into productive enterprises. More often than not it's socked into overseas bank accounts. If that's the case, the government, as inept as it can be at times putting tax money to productive use, can still do better with that money.
And no, it's about the same as other investments. There are risks. There are good/bad years. I pull a salary for my work and a distribution from excess profits beyond that. I could hire someone to run it. I could sell it. Etc.
In the end, it's your call as to what you want to do. Without knowing the nature of the business, your level of involvement, your enjoyment, I can't say what you should do.
I'm actually reading your arguments. These are not ones you will win as you're not arguing against me. You're arguing against 200 years of economic history and the fruits of capitalism, results which have propelled ALL standards of living upwards to a degree and velocity of which the world has _never_ seen. Nice book on this called 'the 5000 year leap'.
Might want to look at this:



Just one of many such pieces. I liken your enthusiasm for capitalism to be similar to the old adage history is written by the victors. Sure, it's natural to like a system you did well under.

Then there's this:


Indeed, in every region of the world — the study looked at Europe, China, South Asia, Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa — the trend was the same: Capitalism led to declining standards of living, and only improved when progressive social movements implemented necessary reforms.

My take on this is unfortunately, by its nature, capitalism will fight the higher taxes and greater regulation needed for these reforms. We've seen it in this country in the last 40 years. And arguably, having more material things but less free time to enjoy life, which is the end result of capitalism, isn't necessarily better.

You're armchair quarterbacking worldwide economic policy yet haven't worked a public full time job for most of your adult life? This isn't a personal attack. This is saying you are a nice guy, but lack the schema, the background, the lens to interpret the subject matter at hand.
I left the rate race voluntarily because I didn't see the point. Material things never made me happy beyond whatever utility they might have. Certainly I wasn't going to worker harder to buy more expensive clothing, or other fancy stuff, when the marginal utility just wasn't there for me. To me time is the most valuable commodity. My purpose for working was simply so that eventually I would no longer have to work. If we ever find a cure for aging/death I might feel differently, but until then we all have a very limited amount of time on this planet.

Regardless of my background I see the current system is no longer working well for the majority, if it ever did. And I think we're on the cusp of something much, much better with automation and AI, despite the constant hype these two things get nowadays. A world where people are largely free to follow their creativity, freed from the constraints of a job, doesn't sound like such a bad thing from where I stand. Will we have to educate people differently for this? Sure. The current system basically exists to turn people into corporate drones. No reason their creativity can't be nurtured instead.

Will there still by very rich in this hypothetical future? Most likely but it's not rich people who bother me so much as those who are virtual slaves making them richer. That goes away with this idea.
 

bykfixer

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I like capitalism.

The problem these days is a bunch of unelected beaurecrats picking the winners and losers in order to fatten the wallets of they and their friends. These same folks have allowed or manipulated the system to now be out of reach of many in order to slowly indoctrinate the next generation into gladly accepting gubment handouts, which only exaserbates the problem due to those so-called benefits driving the cost up further.

The so-called safety net is now a hammock for far too many able bodied people who clamor for what those rich people have without doing anything to earn it.

Meanwhile the heartbeat of capitalism has begun to palpitate and a willing press corp sings the praises of these continued efforts to undermine the fabric of society in order to pit citizen against citizen while they continue to march hastily toward a tyranical system the populice no longer minds. Nope, post civil war in America step by step, inch by inch the system has been moving closer and closer to a system the Founding Fathers escaped from.
 

jtr1962

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I like capitalism.

The problem these days is a bunch of unelected beaurecrats picking the winners and losers in order to fatten the wallets of they and their friends. These same folks have allowed or manipulated the system to now be out of reach of many in order to slowly indoctrinate the next generation into gladly accepting gubment handouts, which only exaserbates the problem due to those so-called benefits driving the cost up further.
You're reading too much into this. Don't use a complex explanation when a simple one will do, in this case pure, naked greed. Those same folks you mention are profiting handsome investing in things like REITs which are driving up home prices. Or they're buying and manipulating commodities for their benefit. Or as we've seen recently, they're using the excuse of supply chain issues and the pandemic to jack prices up far higher than they would go under a true free market. Unfortunately, it takes relatively few people who can't moderate their greed, and are in positions of power, to ruin it for all the rest of us.
The so-called safety net is now a hammock for far too many able bodied people who clamor for what those rich people have without doing anything to earn it.
It may surprise you that the vast majority of people are more than willing to work hard to better their lot. The thing is there has to be a clear path, like there was when my parents were starting out. You do X,Y, and Z, and you'll get A, B, C, and D in return. Without that, lots of people will just say why even bother? If I have a choice of being poor working, or being poor not working (i.e. living off minimal government handouts) I'll choose the latter. Or if they do work, they'll do the bare minimum to keep their job. In some states the minimum wage is only $7.25. That was a garbage wage the last time I worked for someone else in 1990. Even the $15 minimum which NYC has wasn't that great a wage back then, never mind now. Can't blame people for not even trying when the end result is nothing will improve in their lives.

Meanwhile the heartbeat of capitalism has begun to palpitate and a willing press corp sings the praises of these continued efforts to undermine the fabric of society in order to pit citizen against citizen while they continue to march hastily toward a tyranical system the populice no longer minds. Nope, post civil war in America step by step, inch by inch the system has been moving closer and closer to a system the Founding Fathers escaped from.
Religious freedom was the main reason this country was founded. To be sure there were economic reasons as well, such as the unfair taxes levied by the British Empire. That said, the version of capitalism which exists today would have the founding fathers turning in their graves a lot more than any social safety nets we have. Frankly, compared to Europe, the safety nets we have are a joke, yet people over there still seem to be willing to earn things.
 

orbital

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+

Last year mentioned that my oil filters for my car went from $5.xx to $9.xx.
That was simply gauging with a convenient excuse.
________Noticed a few days ago those filters can be found for $4.48*

maybe a small Canary in the coal mine song in that..

*someone bought several :sssh:
 

turbodog

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... Business assets really shouldn't count towards the total as they've invested in a productive enterprise....

... And I think we're on the cusp of something much, much better with automation and AI, despite the constant hype these two things get nowadays. A world where people are largely free to follow their creativity, freed from the constraints of a job, doesn't sound like such a bad thing from where I stand. Will we have to educate people differently for this? Sure. The current system basically exists to turn people into corporate drones. No reason their creativity can't be nurtured instead.

Will there still by very rich in this hypothetical future? Most likely but it's not rich people who bother me so much as those who are virtual slaves making them richer. That goes away with this idea.

Business assets? You mean the stock I own in my business, right? I don't get paid on assets. I get paid on my share of stock ownership, after all costs/expenses, as a percentage of my ownership.

Sounds like.... the public stock market for example...

Hmmm.

Good luck starting a business w/o investors/stockholders/bondholders.

And you must not be a student of historical facts. People have been spouting the whole "what will we do with our leisure time due to steam power, gasoline power, electrical power, mechanization, automation, etc" for longer than you and I have been alive. And it's _never_ panned out. It's not physics, it's human nature... we want current goods/services. And honestly, not working sucks.

Educate people differently? Really? To sit on their ***?
You've seen "officespace", right?
 

turbodog

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...I've long argued that trickle down economics is a failure because taxing the wealthy less seldom results in that extra money being put into productive enterprises. More often than not it's socked into overseas bank accounts....

Ok, now you're talking out where the sun don't shine. You don't know many wealthy people then.
 

jtr1962

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Good luck starting a business w/o investors/stockholders/bondholders.
Yet I managed to do exactly that. Granted, it was a one-person business with very limited upside, but it was enough money for me. That's actually sort of how the artisan economy that some say will result from UBI/automation will work.
And you must not be a student of historical facts. People have been spouting the whole "what will we do with our leisure time due to steam power, gasoline power, electrical power, mechanization, automation, etc" for longer than you and I have been alive. And it's _never_ panned out.
Short-sighted and uneducated people sprouted stuff like that. Realistically, we mostly weren't using humans as work animals when mechanical forms of power were invented, so why would anyone think those things would suddenly result in lots more free time? Now you have some very smart people saying automation is going to get rid of millions of mundane jobs. This doesn't imply nobody will be working, but I think we'll be seeing greatly shortened work weeks. Those things you mentioned resulted in exactly that. Six 12 hour days was the norm. Eventually mechanism made five 8-hour days the standard. Now businesses are trying (mostly successfully I might add) 4-day work weeks.
It's not physics, it's human nature... we want current goods/services.
And how much is enough? I'm asking because I see so many people whose houses are junked up with stuff. I question whether having more stuff (past a certain point) makes your life better. Not to mention it's bad for the planet.
And honestly, not working sucks.
Your opinion. Almost everyone I know can't wait to stop working. Unless you have a job we're you're learning something new every day it's a waste of time. Even in that case, if the job forces you to a rigid schedule, it still sucks. I've been semi-retired now for over 5 years. By semi-retired I mean I only take work I find either interesting or well-paying. This is the first year I've actually worked since semi-retiring, and then only because my friend needed help with a business project. Maybe over the last two months I've put in 60 or 70 hours. I still unfortunately have my caretaking duties for my mother as well. Anyway, I really haven't been bored over the last 5 years. I didn't miss working one bit, but then again it was never a big part of my life. Even in my busier years I doubt I averaged more than 25 hours week over the course of the year, even if there might have been a few 60 or 70 hour weeks thrown in. What I did was to make sure I made a far higher hourly rate than I would have working for someone else. My last gig I only had to work ten hours a week to earn what my brother or sister made working full time.

My hobbies and projects have been more fulfilling than any job could be. I do them when I want, for as long as I want. If I get bored, I move on to something else. This is sort of what I envision going mainstream if automation takes over. Once I'm no longer taking care of my mother I may even try to market some of the things I've made for myself as hobbies. Not for the money but just to get them out into the world. Right now though with the demands of caring for my mom I just don't have the energy or the time.
Educate people differently? Really? To sit on their ***?
Yeah, educate people differently because right now we totally ignore nurtering the creativity inherent in all of us. Who knows what some of these people doing something passionately as a hobby might come up with. We've even seen some of that on this site. I'm not advocating for people to stop working to sit in front of a TV all day.
You've seen "officespace", right?
If I did it was a long time ago. I can't remember one way or the other.
Ok, now you're talking out where the sun don't shine. You don't know many wealthy people then.
Observer bias on your part. Collectively trickle down economics has been a failure even if some wealthy people put the money saved on taxes into productive enterprises. In any case, the lower tax rates certainly never paid for themselves in terms of more revenue instead of less.


 
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jtr1962

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I guess I'm in the minority. I'm not rich, but I have a 40-hour a week job I like and I think the USA is the greatest place on earth. Capitalism is the best - we even take care of people who are too lazy to work.
Well, there's literally nothing I would want to do 40 or more hours a week, week in and week out. Even a hobby I love would quickly become a chore doing it that much.

Few people are too lazy to work at all. For some a full-time job might be too much but they'll gladly work 10 or 20 hours a week. Back in my parent's time even working that little was often enough to support yourself. Now two full-time salaries often won't even cut it.
 

M@elstrom

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Few people are too lazy to work at all. For some a full-time job might be too much but they'll gladly work 10 or 20 hours a week. Back in my parent's time even working that little was often enough to support yourself. Now two full-time salaries often won't even cut it.
Therein lays the rub, one income households can work but revised expectations and thus expenditure is necessary, I work 36 - 50 hours a week because currently my skillset is in demand but have reached the age (and mindset) where time with Family is significantly more important to me, unfortunately as the sole wage earner I must constantly try to achieve an acceptable work/life balance.

Overworking kills enthusiasm, job satisfaction and relationships, no one on their death bed wished they had worked more...
 
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Whatever you do, work at it with all your heart, as working for the Lord, not for human masters.

A friend of mine had a poster with a picture of Einstein. Underneath the picture was written - Attitude is everything. Brains don't mean $hit.

I was recently talking with a man who told me - "People ask me why I'm a roofer. I tell them, I like roofing. I'm good at it. I've been doing it for a long time. But no matter how many hours I work, I can not buy a house."

Capitalism is very unfair. However, it's the fairest system ever devised.
 
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