We are going backwards for CRI and normal driver/transformer/electronic losses, along with all the cheap junk that we'll see plenty of as the hobby catches on with mainstream. And, I'd wager that LED dimmer-ability will also add to the efficiency hit.
In one of my closets, I had to replace the 2 60w incan's with 2 40w halogens(we can call them better incans). It took way too long for the CFL's to warm up enough for me to see what I needed to see. And, there were no LED bulbs that are bright enough.
The LED bulbs aren't common enough yet. Many are pushing for lower k and higher CRI so as not to scare the consumer away when they switch, even though the lumen/watt is not as good as it can be. I'll make the assumption that as it becomes more mainstream, and as the junk bulbs are sorted out and avoided, we'll have more efficiency, hopefully within a couple years.
Another area we need to concentrate is heat removal. We'll never get the consumer volume conversion that we're looking for if the LEDs get too hot and don't last any longer than the incan or CFL. These means that the lamps, lighting fixtures, & lighting housings' manufacturers need to start retooling for future bulbs. Most fixtures are horrible at pulling heat away. The LED bulbs need all the help they can get so that we're not stuck with these 6w-8w limitations before meltdown.
Even though I liked the little fans installed in some LED bulbs, that just eats up a little more power, reducing lumen/watt efficiency, and is another point of failure when the little fan clogs up or fails.
I do have an ebay sourced 9 watt LED bulb. Its output is definitely higher K. Its nice and bright but overly too directional. In my 'down pointing' single bulb in the bathroom shower's fixture, its definitely better than the original 60w incan.
I have a couple 6w-7w LED ebay bulbs which perform similarly to the Ecosmart and Sylvania. And, they are a couple years old now and still work fine. There is the slight pause after you hit the switch. You'll notice this if you have mixed bulbs in your fixtures. All my LEDs have this turn on pause.
I gave my opinion on the commonly available Ecosmart and Sylvania here:
http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb/showthread.php?t=273650
Homedepot also has PAR38 Philips LEDs in various outputs and colors. They're about $70 each. I'm tempted to grab 4 for the kitchen recessed lighting but they don't have 4 of the same color and output. Must be a poor seller since their shelf space is very minimal now.
http://www.lighting.philips.com/us_...rent=0&id=us_en_application_solutions&lang=en
