Limitless Light?

[NeonLights]

I personally don't need anything that puts out more light than what I currently have 99% of the time, but I am looking forward to increases in efficiency that may allow significant increases in runtime using the form factor and batteries that are currently available. One of the old standards used to be a Surefire 6P that put out 60 lumens for 60 minutes. Now a 6PX puts out 200 lumens for 2 hours on the same 2x123 cell batteries. Maybe in a few more years we'll see 500 lumens for 10 hours on the same batteries?

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

L.e.d. technology at best will get one more doubling of efficiency at most before it reaches the theoretical maximum. As less heat is generated, l.e.d.s will be able to run at higher currents without more heatsinking needed. You might be able to get a P60 drop-in with one l.e.d. putting out over 1,000 lumens at 1.5 amps. The l.e.d. isn't the real limiting factor though. The thing limiting output is the battery. If the battery wasn't the limiting factor, you could switch from l.e.d. to l.e.p. (light emitting plasma) and get 23000 lumens (requiring over 250 watts). I think li-ion 18650s will top out around 4+ amps. With a 4 18650 light running an l.e.d. (or l.e.d. cluster) putting out 300 lumens/watt, using 4+ amp 18650s, you could probably get maybe 7,000-8,000 lumens for an hour at best. I don't expect a light or batteries to be capable of this for at least 5 years.

 

[jalcon]

Is LED technology moving in such an exponential way that it would be accurate to say that in say another 2-3 years, 500 lumens will no longer be impressive by any of us. I mean, will basic, 6P sized lights be kicking out at least 1000 lumens by then? I am relatively new to this flashlight world and only in the last year Surefire bumped all of its edc sized lights from 200 - 500 lumens according to the 2012 catalogue. I do know lumens are not everything, but I'm talking about how small, yet bright and efficient an LED can get.


It's funny because unless you buy different hosts, and just do drop-in's it seems silly to spend a ton on a surefire light only for it to be "outdated" in a few years, am I right? This hobby is surely not like guns or knives, in that a 9 mm pistol will be a 9 mm pistol in 10 years. Thoughts?

 

[AnAppleSnail]

This hobby is surely not like guns or knives, in that a 9 mm pistol will be a 9 mm pistol in 10 years. Thoughts?

Sure it is. My 208-lumen flashlight from 2009 is still a 208-lumen flashlight today. If a flashlight meets your needs, then it will continue to do so until those needs change or it breaks. I don't see lighting needs changing much except with a person aging, or if the entire world gets significantly more light pollution - like the sides of every building and sidewalk lighting up:

500 lumens only looks about 70% brighter than 200 lumens. The eye perceives light logarithmically. Further, those 500-lumen lights don't reach any farther than my old light because the LEDs are bigger. Similarly, the newest, flashiest ultra-titanium knife isn't really going to be so much sharper than a 80-year-old good steel knife. And the newest computer might do better in a few things, like the newest shoot-things game, but they all work just fine for CPF or youtube.

LED development right now is going the wrong way for making major improvements in flashlights, in my opinion. Larger, lower-brightness-per-area sources make floodier lights in a given size. I like lights with some reach to them, and I think that those are going to become more of a specialized thing. Mag Lite gets it right with pocket-size throw of decent power in this day of big honking LEDs in yesterday's reflector.

 

[Obijuan Kenobe]

I agree with the above 100%

The point is now use...how do you use it?

McGizmo sells products that are far from the brightest lights he could make...because a 1000 lumen light has very limited use besides shock and awe of friends and neighbors. His sundrop puts out comparatively nothing...but pure useful light at the right CRI. 60 lumens of high CRI LED light will always be a useful tool.

I think this is the issue. Perhaps drivers as well as batteries are where the most room for advancement exists at this stage.

obi

 

[MichaelW]

I too have been thinking the Cree NEEDS to make an LED that is between the xm-l [too big], and xp-g [not powerful enough]
Something 3mm^2
Lets say you have a 500 [OTF] lumen xm-l light, and then you re-make said flashlight with this xm-'3', that is a 35% gain in throw.

 

[PCC]

LED development right now is going the wrong way for making major improvements in flashlights, in my opinion. Larger, lower-brightness-per-area sources make floodier lights in a given size. I like lights with some reach to them, and I think that those are going to become more of a specialized thing. Mag Lite gets it right with pocket-size throw of decent power in this day of big honking LEDs in yesterday's reflector.

While it is true that manufacturers are answering the need for more lumens by increasing die size, it's also true that the technology behind LEDs is moving forward and that people are working on increasing the efficiency of the emitters. It's possible that, some time in the future, we will have LEDs with 1 square millimeter of surface area producing two or three times more light than current emitters with the same die size do. It's just a matter of time.

 

[MichaelW]

If LEDs improve [specific output] by ~10% per year, that doubling is going take 7.5 years, tripling 11.5 years.
and over the last 5 years, the gains has been in fits/starts. So it won't be a smooth ride.

 

[AnAppleSnail]

While it is true that manufacturers are answering the need for more lumens by increasing die size, it's also true that the technology behind LEDs is moving forward and that people are working on increasing the efficiency of the emitters. It's possible that, some time in the future, we will have LEDs with 1 square millimeter of surface area producing two or three times more light than current emitters with the same die size do. It's just a matter of time.

Ah, the money isn't going that way, it's going to fixed lighting. I think flashlights may always get second scraps only from the LED production table, and have to work with whatever is produced. At least we can move to the XT-E once Cree discontinues the XP-E and XR-E and XR-C. I may have a sample of XT-Es coming soon.

 

[MichaelW]

Even better for the business case. Drop the xp lineup entirely, and have the xp-g die be the smallest available in the xm package. 2,3,4 mm ^ 2
Works for us.

 

[hank]

This is the Atari/Commodore-64 era of LED lighting.
Hang on, it's going to be quite a ride.

I look at the newest stuff available and think, ah, those were the days, this will be a museum piece, that's junk in waiting ...

My guess -- LEDs or better illuminator sources fabricated in large strings and sheets.

We might have something the size of a fountain pen (remember those?) that illuminates at either end, or down its length, or unscrolls if you want a big flat sheet light source, and rolls right up again for storage.

 

[yifu]

Ah, the thing is 6P sized lights ALREADY kick out in excess of 1000 OTF lumens. Just look at Kenji's or Jesse's (VanIsleDSM)'s quad XPGs in 6P sized hosts, which kick out in the vicinity of 1600-1700 OTF lumens. The runtime's not bad with 3100mah 18650s either, at around 20-25 mins.

The thing is 5-6 years ago we had 1000 lumens in 6P sized lights. Just look at the 1185 bulb in a D4 FM socket or a 1794 bulb in a FM socket... Both of them fit right into a 6P Z44 bezel.

 

[TEEJ]

Part of the issue will be advances in heat/efficiency.

Right now, the limiting factors are a combination of heat, and run time.

If the lights turn more energy into photons and less into heat, they could provide a given amount of light for a longer period of time, and perhaps be smaller and lighter than they are currently.

As mentioned, 200 lumens will always be 200 lumens...but, the "old 200 lumens" might have worse color rendition, might project a smaller circle of light than more lumens could with a larger beam.

New lights that yield equivalent lighting (lux) but over a larger area, might take less battery power to produce, might require smaller heatsinks/mass, etc....or might allow less volatile battery options to provide what used to require higher power, etc.

😀

 

[Cataract]

I already am unimpressed by 500 lumens since I got my TK70 but, as already mentioned, 500 lumens is still 500 lumens and still blinds me if I turn that on at night when my eyes are already adjusted to the dark.

Zebra already is planning a 2400 lumen flashlight that is about twice the diameter of a P6, but shorter.