I also noticed that your state has the dubious honor of having the lowest vaccination rate in the country. That undoubtedly accounts for those numbers.As most know, from prior posts, I am in MS. As of yesterday, we've seen a 700% increase in exactly the last 30 days. The _rate_ has never, never, been this high.
We're on the same page. I'm actually starting to stock up on essential items out of fear that supply lines may be disrupted this fall/winter for weeks, perhaps longer.Why is this important? Because the numbers that I am tracking are all pointing to this fall/winter being even worse that 2020.
The only hope to avoid this is if we can somehow convince the holdouts to get vaccinated. And also go back to mask mandates yesterday. I haven't stopped wearing one, but I noticed even in NYC where compliance has mostly been great mask usage is now dropping off dramatically. And our numbers are up, also. We bottomed out at 0.5% positive in late June. Now we're at 2% and rising. So no, Delta isn't going to spare us. It'll probably have far less effect here due to the higher numbers of vaccinated, but a wave is coming, no doubt about it.When you combine the delta variant with 1) mask usage dropping like mad 2) emotional/mental fatigue as it relates to countermeasures 3) flu increase due to 1&2 4) flu increase due to almost certainly declining flu vaccine uptake 5) covid vaccine uptake has flatlined... ALL this points to a very, very nasty fall/winter in store for us.
I got my second shot on Monday. My mom will get hers when she sees her doctor soon. Regarding covid being generally survivable, let's not be lulled into a false sense of complacency. Right now with current treatments I'm roughly estimating the case mortality rate at perhaps 0.5%. However, as you said, this assumes you'll receive medical care if you get it. If numbers keep rising, that's not a valid assumption. Without any treatments whatsoever, this disease appears to have a case mortality rate in the 5% to 10% range (correct me if I'm wrong). I'm basing this on the percent of hospitalized patients who died in NYC in the early stages when we really had no treatments. It was frightening.I urge everyone to get your covid/flu vaccine. And yeah, the old argument about covid being survivable (mostly) applies... but that's the wrong angle to look at this from. That assumes you can RECEIVE care. Healthcare resources are finite, and speaking frankly from the ~6 close family members in healthcare... the medical community is really tired.
The viral load for delta is about 1,000x that of original covid. This thing is spreading like crazy.The past surges did not continue forever (countermeasures were applied eventually), but delta spreads so MUCH faster than before... it appears that it will spread faster than we can respond emotionally, politically, and medically.