More EV negatives

mrfixitman

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What are cable cars powered by?


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There, powerful electric motors (originally a stationary steam-powered engine) drive giant winding wheels that pull cables through a trench beneath the street, centered under the cable car tracks (that's what's in that slot between the tracks).
 

mrfixitman

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What are cable cars powered by?


View attachment 57470

There, powerful electric motors (originally a stationary steam-powered engine) drive giant winding wheels that pull cables through a trench beneath the street, centered under the cable car tracks (that's what's in that slot between the tracks).
This is what being ahead of the curve is. Like the Tennessee Valley Authority or Niagara Falls.
 

mrfixitman

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This is from earlier, but I want to address this. I understand that climate driven initiatives and government mandates are part of a push for EV adoption. To clarify, I'm choosing to approach this from an individual consumer and mass adoption perspective. I don't think mandates will force people to buy a worse product as it exists in 10 or 20 years relative to the competing product as it exists in 10 or 20 years.

I also think incentives will quickly become less and less necessary. Wouldn't it be great to see oil and green subsidies get phased out at the same time?

The caveat is this: NY and CA mandates will help push EVs––as a product––to be a better than ICEs sooner rather than later...the prospect of additional state or Fed mandates aren't even necessary on that front.


The infrastructure and materials shortcomings are huge, yes. I don't think they will be fully addressed, but I do predict that they will be mitigated well enough over the coming decades to prevent them from being such an irredeemable drawback.

I've enjoyed having my assumptions challenged, mostly about there being a greater consensus. Learned some things too. But my expectation is largely unchanged. By 2050 EVs will be a better option for most people. Enough so that that more than 50% of carriages on the road will be internal combustion-less carriages. Not for sure, but far more likely than not. Sticking to it!
50% EV sales in 2025, 70% by 2027. That's what the current curves say. Here is a less aggressive prognostication. North American fall. North America, including the US and Canada, saw EV sales increase by 48% year on year in 2022, following 100% growth in 2021. The EV share of light-vehicle sales is forecast to reach 19.5% in 2025, increasing to 45% in 2030 and 77% in 2035. I think it will happen faster. We shall see.
 

mrfixitman

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bykfixer

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John 3:16

Monocrom

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What part did they have to replace? I assume when you drove in, your car drove just fine, no check engine lights, and you had no clue you needed that part, right?
And of course with my luck on a daily basis, something has to go wrong. I know that invoice is somewhere inside my car. Looks like I'll be hunting for it tonight, during my break at work. 🙄
 

sim1tti

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50% EV sales in 2025, 70% by 2027. That's what the current curves say. Here is a less aggressive prognostication. North American fall. North America, including the US and Canada, saw EV sales increase by 48% year on year in 2022, following 100% growth in 2021. The EV share of light-vehicle sales is forecast to reach 19.5% in 2025, increasing to 45% in 2030 and 77% in 2035. I think it will happen faster. We shall see.
That less aggressive one seems closer to the high end of the range I'd expect for the US. I think we'll sputter and momentum won't be so unrelenting.
And the 80% non Hetchy?
Wind and solar during the day and Hetch Hetchy at night when the city doesn't need it. There is a natural gas power plant in Hunters Point which I have never seen in service....
Came across this very well done 11-part series of articles on California's plan, the massive challenges, what is required, how achievable it actually is, and the details of how it's being done. It's super relevant to this discussion. Addresses just about everything talked about.

For the unacquainted, California has laws requiring
  • 100% renewable energy for the state by 2045
  • 100% new cars sold be EV by 2035
Super ambitious.
 

mrfixitman

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That less aggressive one seems closer to the high end of the range I'd expect for the US. I think we'll sputter and momentum won't be so unrelenting.


Came across this very well done 11-part series of articles on California's plan, the massive challenges, what is required, how achievable it actually is, and the details of how it's being done. It's super relevant to this discussion. Addresses just about everything talked about.

For the unacquainted, California has laws requiring
  • 100% renewable energy for the state by 2045
  • 100% new cars sold be EV by 2035
Super ambitious.
Well not really. However it's not the renewables. It is the storage. California has gone over 100% of the demand earlier and earlier each season. The challenge is storage for night time.
 

bykfixer

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I read a while ago that Toyota was going to put sound making devices in their electric cars so that blind city dwellers won't walk out in front of one.

I've seen blind people getting around the city very well with those feeler canes, yet they also rely on the sounds of vehicles to know when not to cross the street.

Modern intersections that meet ADA requirements now have talking signals but those are few and far apart at this point. Very expensive to retrofit the existing intersections.
 

sim1tti

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Well not really.
Perhaps, but I would expect the exponential growth to be less unrelenting. Especially with full electric as we start hitting the infrastructural and charging constraints. Those haven't truly presented themselves as bottlenecks yet, but at some point they will likely become the biggest (if not only) ones. There will be an inevitable catch up. And while California's mandates may push EV market share forward no mater those bottlenecks, few other US states will have an appetite for that. Easy to see that considering even in super blue Ca., mandates have come of executive order. The appetite will be far less in most of the US.
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However it's not the renewables. It is the storage. California has gone over 100% of the demand earlier and earlier each season. The challenge is storage for night time.
Over 100% demand for EVs? Yes for California but USA is going to be slower. Yeah, the storage is a major challenge, but not the only significant one. And the renewables milestones for California are still not easy to hit....6 GW of new renewables every year for 25 years. I'm convinced of the eventuality, but it's not a slam dunk.
 

alpg88

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california keeps spending billions on aliens, and not those from space, while losing tax paying residents, so all infrastructure upgrades will come from raised prices and taxes, when their electricity bills triple and property tax doubles, i doubt they will be happy about ev cars, oh yea and tax on sun, and wind do not sound crazy now,
 

mrfixitman

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california keeps spending billions on aliens, and not those from space, while losing tax paying residents, so all infrastructure upgrades will come from raised prices and taxes, when their electricity bills triple and property tax doubles, i doubt they will be happy about ev cars, oh yea and tax on sun, and wind do not sound crazy


Speculation. California is doing the moral thing and self interest. LA basin used to be an eye watering experience driving through. Not now. EVs are making a daily difference in health. Not to mention pollution goes from West to East.
 
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