Omicron-where things stand lately

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turbodog

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I can't consider anything that is down to average of 50% effectiveness in six months a vaccine...

This is where the 'complex issue' comes in. The data is literally being noticed, acquired, filtered, refined, peer-review, and published on a daily basis.

The vaccine was made for variant "A", and we are on "O" right now. When the dust settles... and it's shown to be 99% effective against "A" at 2-3 years in... can we then call it a vaccine without having to use quotes around the name?

If mumps suddenly mutated to a version that infected 50% of vaccinated people... would we stop calling the MMR vaccine a vaccine? Would a rational person (still 50% effective) not take it?

This _is_ science, and it's HARD. It's nuanced. And the thing you thought was trivial can blow up in your face.

Take antibodies. Some people just don't make them in great numbers. These people are not sickly, nor will they die an early gruesome death. A statistically significant part of the population simply doesn't make them in usable numbers for lots of pathogens, covid included.
 

nbp

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What if we called them "pre-exposure therapeutics"? I heard someone call the vaccine that today and thought it was a fairly reasonable description.
 

bykfixer

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Ok, so let's try this again.

To start out: opinions are welcome. Politics, religion, personal attacks are not. We're all adults and understand what those are.
Ok?
One man's fact is another man's nonsense.
Facts often come with points of view. Often differing from person to person. Not everybody agrees with one person or another persons facts. That does not mean one or the other is superior.

If this thread devolves into just another quarrelsome covid thread……at least I tried.
 
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bykfixer

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What if we called them "pre-exposure therapeutics"? I heard someone call the vaccine that today and thought it was a fairly reasonable description.
PET works for me. Afterall the covid shot is a therapeutic, right? Vax, jab, shot……whatever, it's been shown to be effective at helping people not die from a novel virus.
 
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Poppy

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What if we called them "pre-exposure therapeutics"? I heard someone call the vaccine that today and thought it was a fairly reasonable description.
If you look up the definition of treatment and therapeutic, you might agree that pre-exposure treatment may be more accurate. Therapeutic is treatment after the fact.

OTOH, the argument of is it a vaccine or not? semantics is a waste of energy.
 

bykfixer

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Call it virus repellent for all I care.
I would like to emphasize post #125 as a follow up to post #123. Not just whether something is a vaccine or a shot, but all those other viewpoints about a new virus that is raging out of control across planet earth.

My intent with post 123 was to point out the conversation was aiming one direction with a curve in the opposite direction approaching. In other words the train may jump off the tracks without a gentle steer in the right direction.

What participants need to understand is not everybody agrees with everybody elses views on things. I think we can all agree the sun rises in the sky each morning and the world is probably not flat. Other than that, even with a million so-called facts about a given case it does not mean what someone's judgement is about them is correct or not.

There's a value in opposing opinions. Open minded people understand that. Yet it always seems that discusions devolve into debates when the parties entrench and emotions start to flare. Ok, that's a lively debate. America was founded with lively, sometimes heated debate amongst some folks called the framers.

Perhaps they even hurled insults at one another at times. I don't recall reading of one them starting a food fight or dualing pistols at dawn. But it is written that at times those debates were pretty lively. What were they debating as they tried to write a set of laws now known as the US Constitution?

Facts. They were debating facts.
Now, will the debates in this thread be as profound as those in the early America period? Eh, probably not. Is the planet going to be a better place because of a thread at a hobbyist forum? Who knows? Afterall simple bread mold led to penecilin.

So thanks to everybody participating here but let's all please remember to TRY to keep emotions in check as we respond to each other. We have various viewpoints on matters at hand. Also remember that some have been at home with time to scour facts while others get their facts from a newspaper or a tv, while living a fairly regular routine during a pandemic. That's why I mention what I hear in 30 second sound bites at times. For some, that's their daily dose of facts.

Some believe the powers that be have a heavy hand in play. Some feel the powers that be are the answers to many problems. Some are pro-active. Some are re-active. Who's to say which is right?
History will. So for now let's all just do what we think is best for us during this trying period for EVERYBODY then live and let live.
 
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RWT1405

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Subtle point: practically impossible to grow your way out of a pandemic.

Also, my data on _overall_ US stats is projecting we are about 2 weeks away from a peak as a group.

MS appears to be ~7 days till our peak.

A complicating factor is that we went through 2 MAJOR holidays. So, data wise, it's harder to get an accurate take on this, especially with Omicron's ridiculously high R0.

Note about data... I'm showing the US is ~2 weeks from a peak. However, we are in the 'declining gains' phase... so increases appear to be tapering down to zero, at which point the graph turns negative and daily cases start dropping.

If you look at the prior surges... we had a 2-3 week lead in time, 2 weeks of very high numbers, and 2-3 weeks of taper down.
Hi "turbodog"

I see in your "About" area it says your occupation is "Consultant/IT", are you involved in healthcare in any way?

If you are involved in healthcare, do you only consult, or are you "hands on", do you actually treat patients?

Have you ever been "hands on" or treated patients?

When I see people with lots to say about a subject, I think it's helpful to know what background they have in that subject, and experience, vs. what they have read on the internet (no offense, but I've known lots if IT people that suffer from that, thinking because they've read a lot on the internet, they are experts).

Thanks!
 

scout24

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I'll jump in and say after a pleasant PM exchange with Turbodog, he seems quite well read on the subject matter and has close ties to several/many who are also. I haven't had time to respond to his last, but feel comfortable that his opinions don't simply come from reading on the internet regardless of career field.
 

bykfixer

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^^ good post. Thank you!!!

I don't take the time to read up on the virus. But when the omni-cron appeared to reach America I did look up some stuff before the American-spin could got too fast.

In phase 1 I did the same mainly looking for how long it lasted in less than ideal conditions like when droplets land on a door knob, how far droplets could woft across a room and such. As far as I could tell at the time it was a pretty durable virus compared to previous. But something along the lines of what temps killed it or how long it lived on surfaces was largely unknown at the time.

I quickly learned the new virus was a very divisive issue in America and that data was being replaced with opinions in my internet searches. Yet that is nothing new. American press thrives from ratings. Always has. For centuries the free press has put a spin on subject matter from whether a war should be entered (as in polls indicated only 35% of Colonists favored war with England) to is a tomatoe poisonous or not. Yes there was a time when a large slice of the population believed the tomatoe was poisonous. And during the depression era the free-press played that up. (My parents who were kids in the depression told me about that one.)

Here we are in 2022 with this thing called the internet, where information should be easily obtained. Yet it seems as if more and more information is being harder and harder to obtain for various reasons. When I started looking for data regarding what the symptoms of the omicron versus the previous versions I eventually found several articles. Yet those offered varying information. And that was after sifting through a barage of offers for purchasing home testing kits or some alphabet soup press trying to scare me back to my basement.

All I wanted to know was "does the onset of omicron begin with sneezing"… it was a simple yes or no question that is "yes" in many cases where sneezing was largely not a symptom of previous version according to many doctors. I knew there were long lines at my local dox-in-a-box healthcare facilities, with home tests being as rare as an honest politician in Parliment.

But I was surrounded by people sneezing so I just wondered if it was likely just people with allergies, colds, flu or does this new variant with supposedly cold-like characterics in its genome cause people to sneeze too? Once I had read about 15 different doctors from various countries state sneezing was a symptom in their patients it seemed to me that sneezing coworkers could be spreading the new strain.

I'm into freedom. But being the boss I had to request some coworkers who were sniffling and sneezing wear a mask in our facility. Company policy and all that. Each person complied and so far none of us are sick beyond allergy like symptons.
 
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RWT1405

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I'll jump in and say after a pleasant PM exchange with Turbodog, he seems quite well read on the subject matter and has close ties to several/many who are also. I haven't had time to respond to his last, but feel comfortable that his opinions don't simply come from reading on the internet regardless of career field.
Then the information should be easy for him to tell us.

Actually, what experience someone has (career field) certainly has an impact on how useful their information is, as opposed to being "well read on the subject matter".

My question still stands.
 

turbodog

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I purposefully hold some details back due to this being the open internet, but will say the following.

I'm in the middle of this personally and professionally. Professionally due to some of my clients are doctor/medical. Personally due to having close/very close family that are spread across healthcare/hospitals (2) MD, (1) NP, (1) BSRN, (1) RN, (1) Radiological, (1) MHS/ASCLS (obscure degree, masters in health science & lab science). I converse with these regularly/daily, swap whitepapers, and pick each other's brains.

It's taken me a long time to realize this, but there is a huge difference between what _can_ work for one person and what _has_ work for everyone, all at once.

The pandemic caused by C-19 is a PUBLIC health issue not a PRIVATE health issue and the approach has to reflect that reality.
 

RWT1405

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I purposefully hold some details back due to this being the open internet, but will say the following.

I'm in the middle of this personally and professionally. Professionally due to some of my clients are doctor/medical. Personally due to having close/very close family that are spread across healthcare/hospitals (2) MD, (1) NP, (1) BSRN, (1) RN, (1) Radiological, (1) MHS/ASCLS (obscure degree, masters in health science & lab science). I converse with these regularly/daily, swap whitepapers, and pick each other's brains.

It's taken me a long time to realize this, but there is a huge difference between what _can_ work for one person and what _has_ work for everyone, all at once.

The pandemic caused by C-19 is a PUBLIC health issue not a PRIVATE health issue and the approach has to reflect that reality.


That's nice, and what I expected.

Knowing, and having, "clients" that are "doctor/medical" and having "close family that are spread across healthcare/hospitals" has nothing to do with having knowledge obtained by actually being a healthcare provider, and actually providing patient treatment.

Everyone has, and is entitled to their "opinion", however the knowledge point from which they obtain that "opinion" has great relevance when they are presenting that "opinion".

In healthcare, many of us love, "spouses/family members/etc" that "know it all" because they are "spouses/family members/etc" of healthcare providers.

Why bother to get an actual education, and experience, in healthcare when you can simply read about it on the internet, or "know someone".

Thank you, and I appreciate you answering my questions, tells me all I need to know.
 

KITROBASKIN

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We have all learned more by reading posts from members. I can say that the honorable turbodog sounds convincingly like he has access to people 'in the trenches'. In fact, I would say he has access to wider experience than any one doctor treating patients. Is he conveying caution and concern 'to save lives'? Yes he is. Is much of the established medical industry doing the same? Yep. Are questioning individuals reacting against that medical push to vax, mask and distance? Worldwide yes.

What gets me is when anyone talks about "We could have stopped COVID." or "We could stop COVID if.." That is human folly.
How about we conduct ourselves with consideration to others by lessening the spread so that hospitals are able to treat automobile accident victims, heart emergencies, and the like?

Fed medical personnel have come to New Mexico to help out. At our school, we are seeing a lot of absences but no word of death that I'm aware of. Thankful that quarantine rules are more lenient.

Life is dangerous.
 

turbodog

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That's nice, and what I expected.

Knowing, and having, "clients" that are "doctor/medical" and having "close family that are spread across healthcare/hospitals" has nothing to do with having knowledge obtained by actually being a healthcare provider, and actually providing patient treatment.

Everyone has, and is entitled to their "opinion", however the knowledge point from which they obtain that "opinion" has great relevance when they are presenting that "opinion".

In healthcare, many of us love, "spouses/family members/etc" that "know it all" because they are "spouses/family members/etc" of healthcare providers.

Why bother to get an actual education, and experience, in healthcare when you can simply read about it on the internet, or "know someone".

Thank you, and I appreciate you answering my questions, tells me all I need to know.

You're quoting basically the logic fallacy of 'appeal to authority' which tells the rest of us what we needed to know also.

Thanks.

Lot of difference between a PCP and setting public policy for 300M people.
 

nbp

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There are medical professionals that say ridiculous things and make poor health choices and spread bad information too, so the fact that someone treats patients doesn't guarantee that their take on a situation is solid gold either. There was a national story a few months back about a pharmacist in a major hospital near me who left a bunch of C19 vaccine out of refrigerator on purpose in an effort to destroy it because he subscribed to all kinds of bizarre conspiracy theories. The fact that he worked in a hospital didn't make him immune to misinformation and disinformation, or keep him from doing something that could harm others' health. I think people's knowledge and expertise should be judged on its own merits rather than just assume they do or don't know what they are talking about.
 

RWT1405

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There are medical professionals that say ridiculous things and make poor health choices and spread bad information too, so the fact that someone treats patients doesn't guarantee that their take on a situation is solid gold either. There was a national story a few months back about a pharmacist in a major hospital near me who left a bunch of C19 vaccine out of refrigerator on purpose in an effort to destroy it because he subscribed to all kinds of bizarre conspiracy theories. The fact that he worked in a hospital didn't make him immune to misinformation and disinformation, or keep him from doing something that could harm others' health. I think people's knowledge and expertise should be judged on its own merits rather than just assume they do or don't know what they are talking about.

I absolutely agree!

There is ALWAYS a small percentage of any/all profession(s) that are incompetent!

However, that doesn't change the fact that someone who "reads stuff" on the internet is NOT a professional and needs to NOT present their information as if they are.

Having said that, someone can certainly be presenting correct, valuable information.

The difference is in the way they present it.

Some try very hard to appear as if they have greater experience/knowledge about things then they actually have.
 

RWT1405

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There are medical professionals that say ridiculous things and make poor health choices and spread bad information too, so the fact that someone treats patients doesn't guarantee that their take on a situation is solid gold either. There was a national story a few months back about a pharmacist in a major hospital near me who left a bunch of C19 vaccine out of refrigerator on purpose in an effort to destroy it because he subscribed to all kinds of bizarre conspiracy theories. The fact that he worked in a hospital didn't make him immune to misinformation and disinformation, or keep him from doing something that could harm others' health. I think people's knowledge and expertise should be judged on its own merits rather than just assume they do or don't know what they are talking about.

Just so that I'm sure I am correct in what you are saying, you'd prefer to take your medical advice from a guy on the internet, that's an IT guy, and no medical education or experience, over people that are actual medical professionals, with a medical education, and experience treating patients?

I'd hate to have interrupted your above response incorrectly, but that certainly seems to be what you are saying.
 

Poppy

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Just so that I'm sure I am correct in what you are saying, you'd prefer to take your medical advice from a guy on the internet, that's an IT guy, and no medical education or experience, over people that are actual medical professionals, with a medical education, and experience treating patients?

I'd hate to have interrupted your above response incorrectly, but that certainly seems to be what you are saying.
I think, the word you are looking for is: interpreted.
 

jtr1962

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There are medical professionals that say ridiculous things and make poor health choices and spread bad information too, so the fact that someone treats patients doesn't guarantee that their take on a situation is solid gold either. There was a national story a few months back about a pharmacist in a major hospital near me who left a bunch of C19 vaccine out of refrigerator on purpose in an effort to destroy it because he subscribed to all kinds of bizarre conspiracy theories. The fact that he worked in a hospital didn't make him immune to misinformation and disinformation, or keep him from doing something that could harm others' health. I think people's knowledge and expertise should be judged on its own merits rather than just assume they do or don't know what they are talking about.
Let me preface this by stating that I have a scientific/engineering background. I went to Bronx Science, then studied electrical engineering in Princeton University. I also practiced the same for over 30 years as an independent consultant, and still do it as a hobby (I retired in 2017). Anyway, when I was in school I falsely assumed ALL scientists/engineers/doctors will only go where the data takes them, even against their own personal biases. Fact is most do, but you have a minority who can be persuaded to write official sounding papers with selective data to justify any viewpoint someone else may want. This has happened from the early days of science/medicine/engineering. Anyone recall Thomas Edison's attempts to discredit AC current? There's a great movie about that called The Current War. But one smear on someone doesn't negate everything else they did. Edison produced a lot of things of value to society, and eventually came around to AC current simply because it's a technically superior solution.

So here comes this pandemic, and along with it lots of misinformation, some of it official sounding enough to convince a lot of laypeople, plus mixed messaging by those tasked with handling the pandemic on the official level. Evidently the pharmacist you mentioned got caught up in this misinformation campaign. My brother has some friends who are also. I have at least one neighbor who is the same.

bykfixer mentioned debates about facts. If something is truly an established fact, there can be no debate on it. The Earth is round. The moon orbits the Earth. Case closed. Nothing to debate. The problems occur when "facts" are changing on an almost daily basis due to evolving knowledge of a situation. That's really where we are now. Anyone with a background in science understands why the facts are evolving. It's because we're learning about this. Unfortunately, a fair segment of the population is uncomfortable with this concept of uncertainty. So they invent half-truths and conspiracy theories as alternate facts, then stick to these of their view of how things are, even in the face of evidence to the contrary. The more you try to tell them they're wrong, the deeper they dig in. Mixed messaging from official sources didn't help matters, either. I'll readily admit that I'm erring on the side of extreme caution with this virus precisely because of this. The official sources said if you're vaxxed you can go without a mask a few months ago. I never stopped wearing one just in case that advice was wrong. And here comes delta/omicron vindicating my level of caution.

kitrobaskin said this:

What gets me is when anyone talks about "We could have stopped COVID." or "We could stop COVID if.." That is human folly.
How about we conduct ourselves with consideration to others by lessening the spread so that hospitals are able to treat automobile accident victims, heart emergencies, and the like?


I say it's not human folly. We already had two other similar diseases, SARS and MERS, which were in fact stopped before they became endemic precisely through precautionary measures. We could have done the same with covid-19. Then you have the fact there are over three orders of magnitude difference in death rates between the countries which handled this the best versus those that handled it badly. Why? To some extent difference in population age and general health played a role. But so did the willingness of the population to heed the advice of experts, even if sometimes that advice erred far on the side of caution. Whether or not you believe we could have eradicated covid-19 in the wild, we certainly could have and can lessen the spread for exactly the reasons kitrobaskin mentions, namely so hospitals can treat people for other things besides covid.

I personally think after seeing this pandemic unfold that social engineering will play a larger part than medical science controlling future pandemics. What good are vaccines or other countermeasures if some large segment of the population can't be convinced to use them? That's where we are. Better science education will certainly help. So will more consistent messaging from those in charge. There was a time when a lot more of the population trusted expertise. Experts aren't always right, but trusting them advanced our society enormously in the first half of the 20th century. I wish we would go back to that.
 
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