Pandemic supply chain in your area

Wurkkos

idleprocess

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As I've said before, my sense is that much of what's happening is the employment market tilting towards the employee after being heavily tilted towards the employer for decades. Industries whose value proposition leaned on inflicting misery on their workforce are now facing retention and hiring challenges and will need to adjust.

Ultimately we'll come out of this better. Seeing that even higher pay isn't attracting enough people, I think many of these jobs will be automated as soon as possible. Fast food is already doing some of that.
Curiously, fast food did a pretty spectacularly terrible job of this a decade ago and continues to do a terrible job of it. The kiosks are slow, klugey, prone to failure, and otherwise unsatisfactory to use.

Truck driving is next on the list.
I expect at least another decade of development before real 'certification' trials of SAE level 4 OTR trucks are conducted. In the meantime the owner-operator will continue to be squeezed by the markets, intensifying the labor shortage.

Many hospitality positions will likely follow as soon as robots and AI can do these jobs.
As badly as "virtual agents" handle problems on websites or 1-800 numbers that fall outside of a very narrow set of conditions, I'm not so confident that the machine learning fairy will magick away a great many service sector jobs outside of the most rote and repetitive in a terrible hurry.
 

turbodog

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... Truck driving is next on the list. ... also "pandemic-proof" the supply chain to some extent...

Soon as truck are AI driven, I'm staying off the roads and going into product liability law.

Also... pandemic proof? Till the next DDOS or zero day vulnerability.

We can't collectively address working conditions (other than safety) and all other items on your list except pay. Support an increase in minimum wage, call your representatives.
 

FlashInThePan

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Sadly, I'm in a state that has the highest per capita covid rate in the entire country right now: Alaska. (In fact, if we were a country, we'd have the worst covid rate in the world.)

What worries me isn't a shortage of food or TP; it's medical care. That's what's really scary. And I'm hoping none of your states (or countries) get to that point. But here's what that means:

All of our hospitals right now are operating under "crisis standards of care", which means that they're rationing treatment. People who'd live under normal conditions are dying. We don't have enough doctor, nurses, or beds to handle everyone who needs them. Right now, the influx of covid patients is causing otherwise survivable patients....to die.

Normally, if a critical ill/injured person comes in to the ER, the doctor does everything he can to treat 'em: uses every drug, tries every procedure, utilizes every machine. Calls in consults from other specialties. They don't give up until the patient's flat-lined.

But right now, we have so many covid patients right now that this just isn't possible. Doctors are forced to make incredibly gut-wrenching decisions about who's most likely to survive...and just letting the ones that are less likely...die.

It's not just about covid, either: if you get into a car accident, or have a heart attack, or get diagnosed with cancer and need an elective procedure to cut it out before it spreads...you may not be able to get the care you need.

Anyway, that's what's in short supply here right now: medical care. As a result, I'm driving more carefully, eating more carefully, exercising more carefully...


Other than that, we're also seeing supply chain issues. I run a jewelry repair store, and a number of items - batteries, clasps for chains, engraving tips, etc. - are either out of stock or backordered from several of our suppliers. Car lots are surprisingly empty. And a lot of things are taking longer to get here than they used to. (Which is okay - we're used to that here in Alaska!)


On the plus side, all of my recent flashlight purchases have made it here safely, soooo....I have lots of lights to play with as I social distance. =D

- FITP
 

jtr1962

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As I've said before, my sense is that much of what's happening is the employment market tilting towards the employee after being heavily tilted towards the employer for decades. Industries whose value proposition leaned on inflicting misery on their workforce are now facing retention and hiring challenges and will need to adjust.
Agreed, and it's long past time. The market hasn't been tilted towards workers in my entire adult life. Last time was probably the late 1960s/early 1970s.

Curiously, fast food did a pretty spectacularly terrible job of this a decade ago and continues to do a terrible job of it. The kiosks are slow, klugey, prone to failure, and otherwise unsatisfactory to use.
Seems to be more an issue of implementation than a problem with the technology. Japan seems to be doing it better than us.

I expect at least another decade of development before real 'certification' trials of SAE level 4 OTR trucks are conducted. In the meantime the owner-operator will continue to be squeezed by the markets, intensifying the labor shortage.
If we're talking strictly about long-haul trucks mostly on highways, we can do that right now. It's when you get off the highway that's the problem. So for 5 to 10 years we'll probably still need drivers for local deliveries. But automation can help enormously with the driver shortage right now.
As badly as "virtual agents" handle problems on websites or 1-800 numbers that fall outside of a very narrow set of conditions, I'm not so confident that the machine learning fairy will magick away a great many service sector jobs outside of the most rote and repetitive in a terrible hurry.
Again, I suspect the problem is one of implementation. You probably have people designing these machines and programming them who never spent one day in that particular industry. We'll get there eventually.
 

Hooked on Fenix

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The problem is that after last year, many police, nurses, firefighters, etc. quit. Police were being demonized because of a few bad apples. Nurses were burnt out over COVID patients. Firefighters were burnt out over record wildfires and even blocked by protesters from putting out city fires. No one wanted these jobs where you had to put your life on the line and were sometimes publicly demonized for doing it with no one to watch your back. Fast forward to now where we are firing frontline workers in mass. Now we had a guy in Beverly Hills, CA die from a heart attack because there were no vaccinated EMTs with proper training to help, and the ones with training were sitting on the bench and not allowed to go into the field. How many more are going to die because of an artificial shortage of police, nurses, firefighters, EMTs, etc.? What about truckers and those working on transport ships? Last year all the trucking academies were shut down due to COVID. We came into this year with a shortage of truck drivers. Firing some of them is the stupidest thing we could have done. These people were sometimes robbed last year while delivering to some cities and they kept going. You don’t get rid of those that went through all that. Bravery and persistence are in short supply. Without truckers, people starve and our country falls apart. Look at the backlog of ships in Long Beach, CA. Because of a trucker shortage made worse by one decision, there is a huge backlog of ships. One ship caused a massive oil spill by dragging it’s anchor. These ships aren’t just carrying Christmas presents. Many are carrying food that could spoil because of this delay. This could cause people to starve.

I think the cure for COVID is becoming worse than the disease with all of this in mind. I miss the days where we could be respectful toward one another and treat each other as equals instead of allowing some to be treated as second class citizens. I’m tired of seeing someone who sneezes looked at like they are a mass murderer. Those that make a certain choice about their body with consultation with their doctor should be respected, not publicly demonized, fired, and banned from receiving unemployment (especially those in the military). If we don’t turn back now from the way we are going, our fear of this virus will be the end of us.
 

Poppy

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The problem is that after last year, many police, nurses, firefighters, etc. quit. Police were being demonized because of a few bad apples. Nurses were burnt out over COVID patients. Firefighters were burnt out over record wildfires and even blocked by protesters from putting out city fires. No one wanted these jobs where you had to put your life on the line and were sometimes publicly demonized for doing it with no one to watch your back. Fast forward to now where we are firing frontline workers in mass. Now we had a guy in Beverly Hills, CA die from a heart attack because there were no vaccinated EMTs with proper training to help, and the ones with training were sitting on the bench and not allowed to go into the field. How many more are going to die because of an artificial shortage of police, nurses, firefighters, EMTs, etc.? What about truckers and those working on transport ships? Last year all the trucking academies were shut down due to COVID. We came into this year with a shortage of truck drivers. Firing some of them is the stupidest thing we could have done. These people were sometimes robbed last year while delivering to some cities and they kept going. You don’t get rid of those that went through all that. Bravery and persistence are in short supply. Without truckers, people starve and our country falls apart. Look at the backlog of ships in Long Beach, CA. Because of a trucker shortage made worse by one decision, there is a huge backlog of ships. One ship caused a massive oil spill by dragging it’s anchor. These ships aren’t just carrying Christmas presents. Many are carrying food that could spoil because of this delay. This could cause people to starve.

I think the cure for COVID is becoming worse than the disease with all of this in mind. I miss the days where we could be respectful toward one another and treat each other as equals instead of allowing some to be treated as second class citizens. I’m tired of seeing someone who sneezes looked at like they are a mass murderer. Those that make a certain choice about their body with consultation with their doctor should be respected, not publicly demonized, fired, and banned from receiving unemployment (especially those in the military). If we don’t turn back now from the way we are going, our fear of this virus will be the end of us.
Oh cry me a river!


While most New York City employees cannot receive their pensions until they turn 62, police officers and firefighters can retire at any age after they have completed the required number of years of uniformed service.

In New York City, most police officers and firefighters leave city service after they qualify for their full pension and health insurance benefits: 20 years of service for those hired before July 2009, and 22 years for those hired since then.

This is different from many other major U.S. cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and San Diego, where police and firefighters must be at least 50 to receive their pensions.
What other job do you know of that you can retire at 38 years of age and have your health insurance benefits paid for the rest of your life?
Health Insurance for my wife and I was $1700 a month, and it was not as good as the State Health Benefit Plan. It includes Police, Firemen, Teachers, and other municipal employees.
 
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Poppy

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I did a little shopping today in a supermarket. There weren't any gaping holes on the shelves. Meat prices are up $1-2 a pound more than last year. Some were on sale, reduced to what they would have costed last year, but one needed to have their "Digital Coupon". This particular store's online shopping cart is terribly implemented. It just isn't worth the time to work your way through it.
 

jtr1962

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What worries me isn't a shortage of food or TP; it's medical care. That's what's really scary. And I'm hoping none of your states (or countries) get to that point.
I've been operating that way since last March. I haven't ridden my bike, for example. Not because medical care in NYC was lacking. That was only true in the first few months of the pandemic. But rather because if I got hurt seriously enough to need to go to a hospital, there's a chance I could catch covid while there. So I'd rather not do anything which could potentially put me in a hospital. I don't even go out for walks besides going to the grocery store every other week. When the numbers fall to maybe 0.1% positive I'll feel more comfortable resuming my normal activities.
 

jtr1962

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The problem is that after last year, many police, nurses, firefighters, etc. quit. Police were being demonized because of a few bad apples. Nurses were burnt out over COVID patients. Firefighters were burnt out over record wildfires and even blocked by protesters from putting out city fires. No one wanted these jobs where you had to put your life on the line and were sometimes publicly demonized for doing it with no one to watch your back. Fast forward to now where we are firing frontline workers in mass. Now we had a guy in Beverly Hills, CA die from a heart attack because there were no vaccinated EMTs with proper training to help, and the ones with training were sitting on the bench and not allowed to go into the field. How many more are going to die because of an artificial shortage of police, nurses, firefighters, EMTs, etc.? What about truckers and those working on transport ships? Last year all the trucking academies were shut down due to COVID. We came into this year with a shortage of truck drivers. Firing some of them is the stupidest thing we could have done. These people were sometimes robbed last year while delivering to some cities and they kept going. You don’t get rid of those that went through all that. Bravery and persistence are in short supply. Without truckers, people starve and our country falls apart. Look at the backlog of ships in Long Beach, CA. Because of a trucker shortage made worse by one decision, there is a huge backlog of ships. One ship caused a massive oil spill by dragging it’s anchor. These ships aren’t just carrying Christmas presents. Many are carrying food that could spoil because of this delay. This could cause people to starve.

I think the cure for COVID is becoming worse than the disease with all of this in mind. I miss the days where we could be respectful toward one another and treat each other as equals instead of allowing some to be treated as second class citizens. I’m tired of seeing someone who sneezes looked at like they are a mass murderer. Those that make a certain choice about their body with consultation with their doctor should be respected, not publicly demonized, fired, and banned from receiving unemployment (especially those in the military). If we don’t turn back now from the way we are going, our fear of this virus will be the end of us.
Most are quitting from burnout, not being fired due to vaccination mandates. In NYC the strict mandates only reduced the health care work force by 3%. I'm also sure if any of the fired people change their minds and get vaccinated, they'll be able to get their old jobs back.

It's a balancing act. Don't have mandates, maybe some people will be saved due to more staff but at the same time the unvaccinated workers could potentially kill more people than were saved with covid. Have mandates, you save people from dying of covid but staffing shortages may result in deaths which otherwise wouldn't have occurred. Burnout is a far bigger problem though. People refusing to be vaccinated is the primary reason hospitals are overwhelmed at this point. If you want to be respectful towards health care workers maybe get vaccinated so they're not dealing with so many cases of preventable illness. Yes, vaccinated people get sick sometimes, too, but in far smaller numbers.

BTW, nobody sends perishable goods by container. And we should be growing most of our food locally, within a few hundred miles of where it's consumed. If we're not then we're creating our own problems.
 

bykfixer

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The price of cow meat is a budget buster in my area so……there's plenty of cow meat in stores right now. Rib eye's on sale are $10.99 a pound. Pre-covid, $4.99. Uncooked burger patties $4 each ($16/4 pack). Pre covid $4.99. Meanwhile prices are stable for that other white meat (pork).

There's talk of turkey shortages for Thanksgiving. Fine with me as I've been trying to talk my fam-damily into Italian cuisine for years now to no avail. Maybe this year we will serve my 5 pound lasagne with the cranberry sauce.
 

jtr1962

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The price of cow meat is a budget buster in my area so……there's plenty of cow meat in stores right now. Rib eye's on sale are $10.99 a pound. Uncooked burger patties $4 each ($16/4 pack). Meanwhile prices are stable for that other white meat (pork).

There's talk of turkey shortages for Thanksgiving. Fine with me as I've been trying to talk my fam-damily into Italian cuisine for years now to no avail. Maybe this year we will serve my 5 pound lasagne with the cranberry sauce.
To me the high beef prices might be a blessing in disguise. Americans eat way too much red meat for their own health. We will save a lot of health care dollars if we cut that even by half. I already cut bacon out. Pork prices may be OK but bacon has gone off the charts. I never ate that much, just an occasional treat. But at current prices I just can't afford it any more.

I couldn't even buy chopped meat for lasagna the last time I went to the store. They were just out of it.
 

scout24

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Oh cry me a river!



What other job do you know of that you can retire at 38 years of age and have your health insurance benefits paid for the rest of your life?
Health Insurance for my wife and I was $1700 a month, and it was not as good as the State Health Benefit Plan. It includes Police, Firemen, Teachers, and other municipal employees.
Nobody retires from NYPD at 38. You need college or military time, and the cesspool that is NYC has very strict firearms ownership laws. Even for their officers. Did you read the article? Nowhere does it mention 38 years old. Those who DO retire after 20 years of working in one of the most thankless jobs in the worst city to do it in this counrty deserve their benefits. If you think for one second it's otherwise, I'll happily follow you around for a week as you do their job. Rolling around on the ground and dealing with the worst humanity has to offer may change your mind. I'm suprised this post came from you.
 

Poppy

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scout,
I don't know how many officers who are particularly happy with their job, but I do know a number who are counting the days until they reach 20 years, yet those who have advanced through the ranks, often stay on longer because of pay increases, and I suppose they are no longer rolling in the streets.

A friend that I went all through grammar and high schools, retired as chief of Police in a small town in NJ. He retired at 40 years old, full benefits.

I didn't think about the need for college now. So 18 + 4 = 22 years old, + 20 years service retired @ 42. Also, if they want their service time to count, I believe they can "buy back" into the fund. Yes it may take a few thousands, but the return is much greater.

According to that article "Two-thirds of retired police officers who began receiving full pension benefits since 2010 were under age 50 at the time, with almost 30 percent under age 45, said the report."

Believe me, I am NOT anti-police. Not by any stretch of the imagination.

If anything, I am anti-the continual negative tone of the post that I responded to.

IMO the Police got a really rough ride this past year, and in many instances showed a tremendous amount of restraint.
 

Poppy

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The price of cow meat is a budget buster in my area so……there's plenty of cow meat in stores right now. Rib eye's on sale are $10.99 a pound. Pre-covid, $4.99. Uncooked burger patties $4 each ($16/4 pack). Pre covid $4.99. Meanwhile prices are stable for that other white meat (pork).

There's talk of turkey shortages for Thanksgiving. Fine with me as I've been trying to talk my fam-damily into Italian cuisine for years now to no avail. Maybe this year we will serve my 5 pound lasagne with the cranberry sauce.
Wow, those prices are worse than mine.
In their sale flyer... Top round London broil $4.49 but with a digital coupon, $3.49 a pound.

I just bought some meatball/meatloaf mix - ground beef, pork, veal for $4.99 a pound.
 
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turbodog

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... So for 5 to 10 years we'll probably still need drivers for local deliveries. But automation can help enormously with the driver shortage right now.

...

You're fooling yourself if you think drivers will just sit around all day and wait to catch 30 mins of work when the AI truck rolls in. If they do wait, you're gonna pay them a full day's wage to do so.
 

turbodog

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Wow, those prices are worse than mine.
In their sale flyer... Top round London broil $4.49 but with a digital coupon, $3.49 a pound.

I just bought some meatball/meatloaf mix - ground beef, pork, veal for $4.99 a pound.

So maybe I should take stepfather up on his offer to give me a slaughtered steer for Christmas... around 600lb of meat. Time to shop for a deep freezer.
 

jtr1962

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You're fooling yourself if you think drivers will just sit around all day and wait to catch 30 mins of work when the AI truck rolls in. If they do wait, you're gonna pay them a full day's wage to do so.
They won't have to. Would all the AI trucks arrive at the freight distribution center at exactly the same time each day? And local runs in cities typically take a full shift anyway. Load up a box truck, make a dozen or more stops, with 15 to 30 minutes unloading time at each one.
 

turbodog

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They won't have to. Would all the AI trucks arrive at the freight distribution center at exactly the same time each day? And local runs in cities typically take a full shift anyway. Load up a box truck, make a dozen or more stops, with 15 to 30 minutes unloading time at each one.

You living in NY blinds you to a lot. Around here, they do curbside/dock/parking lot delivery to businesses & most homes (if there's enough room to turn around) with a full size tractor trailer.

NY is not the entire us. And those drivers are not going to hang around for crumbs. My clients that hire hundreds/thousands of CDL drivers see it play out again and again.
 
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