Pandemic supply chain in your area

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jtr1962

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You living in NY blinds you to a lot. Around here, they do curbside/dock/parking lot delivery to businesses & most homes (if there's enough room to turn around) with a full size tractor trailer.

NY is not the entire us. And those drivers are not going to hang around for crumbs. My clients that hire hundreds/thousands of CDL drivers see it play out again and again.
Right, NYC isn't the entire US. In areas like you describe, with low traffic and far fewer pedestrians or cyclists, an AI truck can do the entire run, not just the highway part. So no need for drivers to hang around for crumbs. They currently can't in places like NYC. AI is really bad at dealing with the types of road hazards you encounter in urban areas.
 

jtr1962

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And how are they going to do this without internet/cellular access?

Pipe dream. Today and in the future.
Read the link? They're already doing it in Texas. They might be at the point where they no longer have a driver on board as they did in their earlier tests.

What does internet/cellular access have to do with anything besides being able to communicate enroute with the truck?
 

bykfixer

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That's kinda like asking "are you asleep"……if you answer yes, you are not asleep. If you are asleep you don't really hear the question.

America has a very diverse supply chain. A few rusty links have been highlighted in the last year but the chain itself is still pretty much ok. If you live near rusty links you've probably been affected.
 

JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy

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It's only a matter of time before we don't drive our own vehicles. We are just not very good at it. AI based systems will achieve 2-3x higher road utilization with far far fewer accidents.


Wrt police, there are other dangerous jobs too. No servant of the taxpayer should be able to retire after only 20 years unless there is a necessity for extreme compensation to attract enough people to fill the jobs. That's not the case.


China is a giant kink in the supply chain that would take decades to replace.
 

bykfixer

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Last time I was in the grocery store there was a gigantic hole in the freezer section in prepared potatos like french fries and tater tots……gone.

There was a hole in the toilet paper section too, but it was where all of those off brands normally reserved for cruise ships and hotels that filled space for most of 2021 have disappeared. At least for now the Charmin, Scott and other brands were plentiful.

Meanwhile the 4 pack of pre-made burgers went up another $5. However there were lots of "red tag" specials where last week's were going out of date. Now to me, I prefer aged beef anyway so I stocked up. I eat about 8 hamburgers a year so I now have a years supply in stock.

Chicken price seems to have peaked and is slowly falling. Meanwhile halloween candy is plentiful.
 

jtr1962

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Wrt police, there are other dangerous jobs too. No servant of the taxpayer should be able to retire after only 20 years unless there is a necessity for extreme compensation to attract enough people to fill the jobs. That's not the case.
Only possible exception to that might be if you have a very physical job where 20 years of service wears your body out to the point you can't work any more. Cops don't qualify in that regard. Some positions in construction or maintenance might qualify.
 

jtr1962

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America has a very diverse supply chain. A few rusty links have been highlighted in the last year but the chain itself is still pretty much ok. If you live near rusty links you've probably been affected.
My understanding on it, based on what I've read so far, is that the cause is primarily a spike in consumption beyond what the supply chain is capable of dealing with. People weren't able to do most things they normally can since last March. As a result, they're replacing experiences with things. The supply chain just isn't designed to deal with this. Also, we had a truck driver shortage even pre-pandemic. Now it's become more like a crisis.
 

turbodog

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...

What does internet/cellular access have to do with anything besides being able to communicate enroute with the truck?

:rolleyes:

You're telling me an insurance carrier is going to let a tractor trailer drive itself into an area where there's no way to actively control the truck _when_ an emergency arises?

Sure....
 

jtr1962

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:rolleyes:

You're telling me an insurance carrier is going to let a tractor trailer drive itself into an area where there's no way to actively control the truck _when_ an emergency arises?

Sure....
For now they have drivers onboard to take control in an emergency. I'm not sure how effective this is in practice given that the "backup" driver likely wouldn't be paying attention most of the time.

Second, wouldn't typical latency/connection problems prevent effectively driving the vehicle remotely via an internet/cellular network anyway?

Ask the companies experimenting with this exactly what their plans are for these types of contingencies, not me. All I'm saying is AVs are coming. Whether it's in 2 years or 5 years or 10 years they'll eventually be around, most likely starting with commercial driving on relatively fixed routes. The truck driver shortage isn't going away. There just aren't enough people able/willing to drive trucks, even with better pay.

We could send a lot more freight by rail, but ultimately most needs to go on a truck eventually.
 

Poppy

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<SNIP>There just aren't enough people able/willing to drive trucks, even with better pay.

We could send a lot more freight by rail, but ultimately most needs to go on a truck eventually.
My Dad made a decent living as a Union Tractor Trailer driver. He would usually work an hour or two overtime each day. Overtime was time and a half.
Unfortunately a lot of companies went non-union and there were plenty of people willing to work without benefits, and for less money. Then over the road work went to owner-operators. They worked for even less, and had to pay to maintain their rigs. Often they had to work more hours than regulations would allow, so that they could get the number of miles in, so they would be able to carry the expense of running their rig.

The pendulum swings both ways.
Currently it has swung too far to the low pay side for drivers, it needs to swing back the other way. In time it will balance out.
 

jtr1962

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My Dad made a decent living as a Union Tractor Trailer driver. He would usually work an hour or two overtime each day. Overtime was time and a half.
My parents came of age during the best time to be a worker in the US-from the 1950s through the early 1970s. A person with just a high school diploma could earn enough to support a family. Housing could easily be had for 25% or less of your take-home pay. If you got a college degree you could write your own ticket. My dad drove tractor trailers for S.B. Thomas for a while. Then he started working for the city in the mid 1960s.

Things started going south in the mid 1970s. That trend accelerated by the 1980s. Now even with a college degree you might be living paycheck to paycheck. Housing prices are completely ridiculous.
Unfortunately a lot of companies went non-union and there were plenty of people willing to work without benefits, and for less money. Then over the road work went to owner-operators. They worked for even less, and had to pay to maintain their rigs. Often they had to work more hours than regulations would allow, so that they could get the number of miles in, so they would be able to carry the expense of running their rig.

The pendulum swings both ways.
Currently it has swung too far to the low pay side for drivers, it needs to swing back the other way. In time it will balance out.
The pendulum is already swinging back finally. Too late for people like me who got the screw the entire working lives, but maybe today's 20 and 30 somethings will have it better. The only caveat is businesses will fight back replacing high-paid employees with automation wherever possible.
 

turbodog

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... The only caveat is businesses will fight back replacing high-paid employees with automation wherever possible.

Business do what they need to survive. If they are forced to cut costs it's usually because customers flock to the cheapest offering.

It's not too late for you, but you need to do things which aren't in your preferences and nature.
 

jtr1962

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It's not too late for you, but you need to do things which aren't in your preferences and nature.
No it is. I'm almost 59. My mom requires full-time care. There's no scenario where I would be ahead by much, if at all, working, then paying people to take care of her. And until the pandemic ends no way would I have people whose medical status is unknown in the house. My mom is almost 83. Her older sister just hit 92. So by the time I get my freedom back I'll probably be well into my 60s, possibly even 70s. Last thing I'll want to do at that age is worry about getting a job. I probably won't be in any shape for it given how I already feel. My dad retired at 60. By that point he really couldn't work any more.

While I'm not rich, when my last consulting job ended in early 2018 I made the decision to just retire. If I'm conservative with my spending I should be OK.
 

Poppy

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Yesterday I made a costco run for water, TP, and paper towels.
I had to buy Charmin brand TP because I saw a lady pick up the last of the Costco/Kirkland brand. Charmin is a little more expensive, but now our hinnies will be Charmin clean :)

I also picked up a large container of Folgers coffee.

The news commentators, yesterday, were aghast that there may be a supply chain problem causing a coffee shortage. So one can fairly well bet, that there will be a shortage caused by hording.

Crazy huh?
 

JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy

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Only possible exception to that might be if you have a very physical job where 20 years of service wears your body out to the point you can't work any more. Cops don't qualify in that regard. Some positions in construction or maintenance might qualify.

True, but they are not public sector jobs normally.
 

JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy

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:rolleyes:

You're telling me an insurance carrier is going to let a tractor trailer drive itself into an area where there's no way to actively control the truck _when_ an emergency arises?

Sure....

I would make a bet, but that will be taking candy from a baby. Insurance companies don't look fondly on self-driving cars. A magnitude or more reduction in accidents won't be good for their bottom line.
 

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