Pandemic supply chain in your area

[scout24]

The average cost for a new electric vehicle was about $14,500 more than the cost of an average new i/c vehicle as of February this year. $60,000 vs. $45,000 (Source: Edmunds.) Add in a lack of material to build batteries from and lack of charging infrastructure, you begin to see it'll take a long time to reach the stated goals for adoption. Think how long it took in the early 1900's to develop trust in the new i/c technology, build fueling infrastructure, etc. There's no way it happens faster now, no matter how much political wind is blown in that direction. Just the added electrical capacity needed will take a decade or two to add, given the aged and over-taxed grid we currently have.

 

[turbodog]

The average cost for a new electric vehicle was about $14,500 more than the cost of an average new i/c vehicle as of February this year. $60,000 vs. $45,000 (Source: Edmunds.) Add in a lack of material to build batteries from and lack of charging infrastructure, you begin to see it'll take a long time to reach the stated goals for adoption. Think how long it took in the early 1900's to develop trust in the new i/c technology, build fueling infrastructure, etc. There's no way it happens faster now, no matter how much political wind is blown in that direction. Just the added electrical capacity needed will take a decade or two to add, given the aged and over-taxed grid we currently have.

Given so few players in the market, average price may not be the most accurate way to describe things. I know chevy just dropped their ev car to $26k. That's quite attractive.

 

[aznsx]

Given so few players in the market, average price may not be the most accurate way to describe things. I know chevy just dropped their ev car to $26k. That's quite attractive.

Is that the Bolt? The one with the huge recall(s?) and horrible press last year? If so, I would have dropped the price too! That called for PR damage control to the max

 

[scout24]

I can pick an outlier loss leader compact that doesn't fit a family too, if you'd like... 😁 J/K, sort of. No insult intended, just a nod to realistic family vehicle needs. I wish the EV players luck in increasing sales, but I feel it'll be a niche uphill market for a while yet. I still think hybrid or a Volt type vehicle is the way to go. Best of both worlds, high MPG without leaning on existing overtaxed grids.

 

[idleprocess]

There's no way it happens faster now, no matter how much political wind is blown in that direction.

The years 2030 and 2035 get thrown around a lot for ICE (market) phaseouts. It's a figure that would have been aspirational at best 10-15 years ago - now they aren't even in the realm of cost-is-no-object political reality with a commanding consensus magicked into existence. If nothing else there are supply constraints around their production and labor/development constraints around providing the charging infrastructure.

The grid has to adjust to new subdivisions and new megalomarts all the time and manages just fine. EVs phasing in over decades and primarily charging overnight isn't going to be a problem that demand forecasting and capacity planning can't solve.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

What people still don't understand about electric vehicles is that they still run on fossil fuels. The fossil fuels are most of the mix that powers the electric grid which after some loss from transmission (5-6%) and loss of energy burning fuel to produce electricity (close to 2/3), you're left with maybe 30% of the energy from the source. An internal combustion engine will actually be more efficient than an electric car taking this into account. A regular hybrid car will be even better. Electric cars in use will be charged while the user rests or sleeps, at night when there is no sun. That makes them a drain on the grid while it is overtaxed as is. Just about all of the nuclear power plants are about to be decommissioned. We need more reliable power sources added to the grid to meet our current demands, before we add on everything that moves.

With all of the supply chain bottlenecks, how about we let the free market work and let people buy what they want. Stop trying to ban oil and gas and lead people to electric cars like a pied piper. Some people that can't afford electric cars will use regular gas cars. People that want to save on gas might buy hybrids or plug in hybrids. Some may buy electric, or hydrogen fuel cell cars. Without everyone forced to buy the same thing, it gives some relief to the supply chain because people have alternatives. The truth is we don't have enough raw materials or energy to put everyone in an electric car and power the grid only on solar and wind. We may very well bankrupt the country trying to do so.

 

[idleprocess]

Wandering a bit OT here...

What people still don't understand about electric vehicles is that they still run on fossil fuels. The fossil fuels are most of the mix that powers the electric grid which after some loss from transmission (5-6%) and loss of energy burning fuel to produce electricity (close to 2/3), you're left with maybe 30% of the energy from the source.

An economic coal station operates at ~45% thermal efficiency. The combined-cycle gas plants kicking coal stations' teeth in operate at ~60% thermal efficiency. Transmission and distribution losses are about 5% either way, so the net from a coal station is ~43% while the combined-cycle gas plant is ~57%. Peaking plants are pretty inefficient and will likely see that ~30% net, but they're a small percentage of generation ... and being retired in favor of the combined-cycle gas plant. As an added bonus, distributed sources of air pollution are effectively removed to a central location generally not in the middle of a population center with better pollution controls.

A modern automobile engine operating under optimal load/RPM conditions might realize your 30% figure, but with the strong majority of the populace engaged in urban highway driving + city driving we're not going to realize that level of efficiency with any regularity. Ex: when I used to commute daily my mileage was 90% highway - and even then the best I could occasionally hit per day was 30MPG while driving the same speeds on a road trip I could hit 35MPG.

 

[bykfixer]

Take a few ticks to look around at all of the plastic items in your life.

Oil to plastic: A lesson on how plastic is made

When it comes to plastic, times have certainly changed. While 40 years ago anything made with plastic was considered cheap.

inbound.teamppi.com

To me this is a good place to reduce green house gases while trying to get the transportation sector into the next phase.

 

[knucklegary]

My States plastics recycling waste pickup. They only want what is worth money to them "recyclable" all the rest of it goes into landfills and gets burned.
One months worth of water bottles and Al cans around my house pays average $25 month.
That much money won't fill up my gas tank with many gallons (3) of fuel, but does buy me more bottled soda water, whoopee!
What plastics are doing to our oceans and burning toxins into ozone, well that's another story.

 

[idleprocess]

My States plastics recycling waste pickup. They only want what is worth money to them "recyclable" all the rest of it goes into landfills and gets burned.

As I understand it, #1 plastic can be readily and economically recycled, #2 is a marginal proposition, and the rest ... pretty much can't be recycled. As a result I chunk the rest.

Steel, aluminum, paper are generally economical to recycle.

 

[knucklegary]

As we all do, what other choice but to chuck it into the garbage

 

[nbp]

There are many threads on EVs and power sources already that are probably a good place to shift that discussion to.

 

[bykfixer]

I don't really consider supply chain shortages a "pandemic" thing anymore since many were due to turning off the preverbial big switch.
To me, the current issues are post-pandemic from turning the switch back on and finding the perverbial machine had a bunch of parts get all rusty while it was turned off.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

What we are dealing with now is an everything shortage. We have a skilled labor shortage, a fuel, oil, and energy shortage, a fertilizer shortage, a food shortage, a computer chip shortage, a plastic shortage, a metal shortage, a baby formula shortage, a water shortage, a trucker shortage, and a cement shortage.

Much of this comes down to gas and us not using the 100 years worth of it we are sitting on in the U.S. to get us out of this problem. Fuel runs the trucks that brings the food to the stores. Without these trucks running like they should, food prices went up. Our electric grid runs mostly on fossil fuels. Without fuel, electricity prices have gone up. That raises production costs that get passed down to consumers. Plastic is a byproduct of oil. Without oil, no plastic products. More price increases. Urea ammonium nitrate is made from petroleum coke derived from oil. Without oil, we have less fertilizer for growing food and less DEF fluid to operate diesel trucks. So without oil, we have no transportation of goods, little electricity, no plastic, no products period, and barely any food. Seems like fixing this would be our number one priority.

 

[bykfixer]

Toilet paper is still plentiful. Yay!!

 

[knucklegary]

When I departed two weeks ago fuel cost $6.50 gal.. Returned 14 days later and same station is charging $7.00 for same fuel..

.. and same Gubbener is in charge

 

[idleprocess]

Paid $5.10/gallon last week for 93 - the most I've ever paid; 87 was almost a dollar cheaper. Glad I'm not making that 60 mile roundtrip commute anymore.

 

[turbodog]

I paid $3.99 for gas during Katrina. So we still have a ways to go.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

When I departed two weeks ago fuel cost $6.50 gal.. Returned 14 days later and same station is charging $7.00 for same fuel..

.. and same Gubbener is in charge

People are starting to get pissed off so we may see some change. I wouldn't hold my breath on that change though. Years ago we were promised change you can believe in. We have it. It's those few coins left in our pockets after the rest of our money is gone.

 

[Poppy]

Last week I filled up at Costco at $4.85 a gallon. A nearby Gulf station was at $4.99 as were many others. Today, I topped off at that Gulf station at $4.91.

Starting July 1, 2022 Costco will start requiring proof of membership to buy gas.