Pandemic-the light at the end of the tunnel

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Lynx_Arc

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I can agree there are niche uses to bottled water, perhaps more now thanks to the pandemic. Transitioning to aluminum might make more sense in the long run. The higher price due to the extra cost of aluminum would probably help wean a lot of people off bottled water who can just as easily drink tap water. Given that they have all sorts of faucet filters now it's hard to make a case for bottled water based on quality. Convenience? Maybe but why not do what I used to do when I worked outdoors in the heat? I put some ice and water in empty 2-liter soda bottles and bought those along. They stayed cold most of the day. I reused the same bottles over and over.
I have too many heavy tools to haul around to take a lot of 2 liter bottles with me I tend to take a few 16 oz frozen bottles in an insulated pouch with 2 non frozen bottles and work that way but on hotter days I end up grabbing a few sealed bottles from the conex.
I have found the bottles water comes in not good for freezing I use 16.9oz pepsi bottles for that purpose.

I don't see no light at the end of the tunnel..... I instead hear more train noises that will continue on till probably mid next year.
 

jtr1962

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I have too many heavy tools to haul around to take a lot of 2 liter bottles with me I tend to take a few 16 oz frozen bottles in an insulated pouch with 2 non frozen bottles and work that way but on hotter days I end up grabbing a few sealed bottles from the conex.
I have found the bottles water comes in not good for freezing I use 16.9oz pepsi bottles for that purpose.
Smaller bottles work great also.

I don't see no light at the end of the tunnel..... I instead hear more train noises that will continue on till probably mid next year.
Same here. Even if enough people in the US get vaccinated to get it under control we still have the rest of the world. Could be well into next year before most of the world's population is vaccinated.
 

Lynx_Arc

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Smaller bottles work great also.


Same here. Even if enough people in the US get vaccinated to get it under control we still have the rest of the world. Could be well into next year before most of the world's population is vaccinated.
My concern is politics as this virus has been extremely profitable for a lot in power many have made billions and are continuing to make billions while others lost everything and I think some folks who are continue to profit may not want things to be normal again anytime soon.
 

turbodog

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My concern is politics as this virus has been extremely profitable for a lot in power many have made billions and are continuing to make billions while others lost everything and I think some folks who are continue to profit may not want things to be normal again anytime soon.

If by 'some people' you mean a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent of people, then sure, outliers always exist.

If you are talking about normal business owners who have been making money hand over fist for the last 12 months, no. All I have seen want things back to normal asap.

I'm friends with owners of places that sell PPE. They are doing a year's worth of business each month and praying for this to be over. Also have clients in other industries that have been... buoyed upward. Same thing... when will this be over.

If you want it over ASAP, then encourage your vaccine-resistant friends/neighbors/relatives to get the shot. Probably the most effective thing you and I can actually do.
 

Lynx_Arc

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If by 'some people' you mean a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent of people, then sure, outliers always exist.

If you are talking about normal business owners who have been making money hand over fist for the last 12 months, no. All I have seen want things back to normal asap.

I'm friends with owners of places that sell PPE. They are doing a year's worth of business each month and praying for this to be over. Also have clients in other industries that have been... buoyed upward. Same thing... when will this be over.

If you want it over ASAP, then encourage your vaccine-resistant friends/neighbors/relatives to get the shot. Probably the most effective thing you and I can actually do.
The way those who are "in charge" are acting about the vaccine I don't see any amount of people in the country vaccinated that will stop all this fiasco as if they don't trust it why bother with it at all?
 

idleprocess

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The way those who are "in charge" are acting about the vaccine I don't see any amount of people in the country vaccinated that will stop all this fiasco as if they don't trust it why bother with it at all?

Curious where you're getting this impression. The message I'm seeing from everyone I've paid attention to the government - Federal, state, local - is for almost everyone to get vaccinated. No one is claiming everything is hunky dory once you're vaccinated at present time, but as immunity is built up, precautionary measures can be scaled back.
 

markr6

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Just listening to Biden talk...100million shots in 58 days I think. 50-something anyway. Way ahead of the 100-day goal. Now looking for 200M in first 100 days. Even though I'm not excited about the shot, I'm getting it in 2 days and I hope other hesitant people like me give in as well...just get this thing moving. I give up. If it still doesn't get better, there will be all kinds of excuses like we waited to long to vaccinate with new variants, spring breakers, mask mandates ended too soon, etc. All of which could be real...or BS. We'll never know for sure.
 

Lynx_Arc

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Curious where you're getting this impression. The message I'm seeing from everyone I've paid attention to the government - Federal, state, local - is for almost everyone to get vaccinated. No one is claiming everything is hunky dory once you're vaccinated at present time, but as immunity is built up, precautionary measures can be scaled back.
Who is immune? Is the vaccines making people immune? Is masks making people immune? If masks work then they are preventing immunity from building up, if they aren't working well then we are already having more immune people than realized. Does vaccines essentially make the majority of recipients immune? So far the so called "experts" are just dancing around and officials are doing things like double masking while they have already been vaccinated fully (twice). Is there other variants out there that the vaccines are ineffective or maybe different vaccines are not that effective or not?
As I've said at the first all this shutting down and masking bit has IMO stifled herd immunity allowing time for new mutations to arise, the alternative would be more deaths in the past but the possibilities is more deaths in the future when some or all the vaccines are found.. ineffective and only those with natural immunity are actually immune and maybe not all of them either.
I've read that there is at least 4 different "strains" of C19, I don't know if that is true or there is more or how related these are or which of several vaccines are effective against what strains and so on.
I may sound heartless but part of me wants a further ramp up of hospitals and let the virus more quickly make those at the least risk attack us and get natural immunity going quicker instead of waiting till next year (if we are lucky) to have this virus under control so the weak at heart won't faint when someone dies from it around them.
 

jtr1962

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Herd immunity through infection will never work. People who have already been infected have gotten infected again with the variants. Estimates of trying for herd immunity in the US are 5 to 10 million deaths the first year, and 1 to 2 million deaths annually after that forever because people continue getting sick from the variants. To say herd immunity via infection is a reckless strategy is a gross understatement. Remember part of the reason for measures to limit spread is to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed. With treatments the mortality rate is now likely below 1%. Without treatment, which is what happens when hospitals get overwhelmed, it's probably in the range of 5% to 10%.

The vaccines are in fact effective against most of the variants. We can test for that in less than a week.

As I've said at the first all this shutting down and masking bit has IMO stifled herd immunity allowing time for new mutations to arise, the alternative would be more deaths in the past but the possibilities is more deaths in the future when some or all the vaccines are found.. ineffective and only those with natural immunity are actually immune and maybe not all of them either.
Your implicit assumption, which is wrong, is that a certain number of deaths are inevitable either way. That's easily proven false. So far, the countries which handled this the worst have over three orders of magnitude more deaths per capita than those which handled it the best. Eventually we'll be out of this once enough people are vaccinated. The countries which did everything right are going to come out of it with far fewer deaths. They're not going to magically catch up to the countries which handled this the worst in terms of deaths before everyone is vaccinated. Mitigation measures save lives overall. Lots of lives if done consistently. That's a fact.
 
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turbodog

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... allowing time for new mutations to arise...

Mutations depend on number of infections. Keep new cases down, keep new strains down.

No such thing as natural immunity against covid.

Vaccine immunity typically is far stronger than recovered immunity.

On a side note, is it just me or did we time warp back 9 months?
 

idleprocess

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Who is immune?
Someone whose body has possesses the means to fend off virus either through the chance of their makeup without exposure, past exposure that was successfully fended off, or via a vaccine that stimulates an immune response.

Is the vaccines making people immune?
I recall that the latest science says the Pfizer and Moderna 2-part vaccines are some ~90% effective at preventing infection at all and ~100% effective at preventing serious symptoms. The J&J vaccine isn't as effective at preventing an infection (I recall a 65% rating), however I do believe that it's almost as effective at preventing serious symptoms.

The vaccines don't have to be 100% effective at either stage to be effective - kneecapping the R naught will break the pandemic.

Is masks making people immune? If masks work then they are preventing immunity from building up, if they aren't working well then we are already having more immune people than realized.
Masks interdict the virus to varying degrees, so no they do not contribute to immunity, but they do critical work helping to prevent infection.

Does vaccines essentially make the majority of recipients immune?
Yes.

So far the so called "experts" are just dancing around and officials are doing things like double masking while they have already been vaccinated fully (twice). Is there other variants out there that the vaccines are ineffective or maybe different vaccines are not that effective or not?
Given that the vaccine rollout is slow, it can take time for the immune system response to kick in, that there are still unknowns as to whether a fully-vaccinated individual can still shed - or transport - sufficient particles to infect another non-vaccinated individual, and that even without vaccine reluctance there will be those that cannot be vaccinated it's reasonable to keep the mitigating protocols in effect.

Sucks that this doesn't just suddenly end - I'd sure like it to - but that's the unfortunate reality of it.

As I've said at the first all this shutting down and masking bit has IMO stifled herd immunity
The period of time that would have to pass and the number of people that would have to die to develop 'natural' herd immunity would be ... staggering. Naturally-acquired immunity also doesn't seem to last long.

allowing time for new mutations to arise,
No, that's all about that infection rate and natural selection favoring strains that reproduce faster. Had we been able to pretty solidly lock down, mask, and socially distance a strong majority of the world for 6+ weeks a year ago the virus would have all but burned out. But for reasons that will surely be debated for the rest of our lives we didn't, so here we are.

but the possibilities is more deaths in the future when some or all the vaccines are found.. ineffective
As far as I know, the vaccines work on the 'spike protein' that binds to specific receptors, which is pretty fundamental to the virus and unlikely to undergo significant mutation. And while the full immunity numbers might decline as the virus mutates, the protection from serious illness (and thus probably shedding enough virus to infect someone else) is likely to remain strong.

Expect annual booster shots to be a regular thing, akin to the annual flu shot but far better targeted.
 

bykfixer

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I see this thread headed in the same direction as the ones prior so I'll go off the rails a bit and ask two questions.

1) If herd immunity through infection doesn't work then how can it be explained that the human race survived the 1918 pandemic?

2) How can anybody be an expert on the future of a virus that just hit the world a year ago?
2a) Is anybody here expert enough to predict such things?

To me they are rhetorical, to others probably not.
 

jtr1962

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I see this thread headed in the same direction as the ones prior so I'll go off the rails a bit and ask two questions.

1) If herd immunity through infection doesn't work then how can it be explained that the human race survived the 1918 pandemic?

2) How can anybody be an expert on the future of a virus that just hit the world a year ago?
2a) Is anybody here expert enough to predict such things?

To me they are rhetorical, to others probably not.

1) Influenza viruses mutate a lot more rapidly than coronaviruses. The pandemic ended in part because 1/3 of the world's population had been infected, developing immunity in the process, and the virus mutated to a less lethal form which continued to circulate for decades later.

2) Our tools are a lot better than in 1918. They sequenced this virus just weeks after it was discovered. Scientists say covid-19 is at least as deadly as the 1918 flu, perhaps even dealier. Fortunately, modern medicine has kept a lot of victims alive who otherwise would have perished.
2a) Those here mostly regurgitate the testimony of epidemiologists and/or make educated guesses based on that testimony.

Mankind obviously has survived every pandemic which hit it so far but the costs were often enormous. The black death for example killed 30% to 60% of Europe's population when it first appeared from 1346 to 1353. It reappeared on and off until the 19th century, each time exacting a gruesome toll before it burned itself out. With any luck we'll probably get out of this with 4 or 5 million deaths worldwide, or about 0.05% of the world's population. Thank modern medicine for that. Had this been 1918, the death toll likely would have been similar, perhaps 3% of the world's population, or about a quarter of a billion people.
 
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jtr1962

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My point was just verified……
My point is that no credible expert thinks herd immunity through infection is a viable strategy. Sure, in the past, that's how we got through pandemics simply because the technology of the time offered no alternatives. But the price was typically horrendous in terms of loss of life.

My second point is not all viewpoints should be given equal weight. There's a reason why people go through years of school, followed by decades of practical experience, to learn about a subject. Their views on that subject carry a lot more weight than those of people on the Internet who maybe spent 10 minutes learning about the same subject. It's frankly an insult to the experts when people with little knowledge on a subject act like they know everything. That includes all the elected officials who decided to ignore the advice of these experts. So when I keep hearing this "let it spread", herd immunity nonsense it strikes a raw nerve with me. I'll readily admit I'm not even close to an expert on this virus but I've at least taken the time to read about it for hours and hours in an attempt to be more knowledgeable. I may still sometimes say things which are incorrect. If offered links to information by experts which refutes what I said, I'll gladly concede. That's how people learn.
 

bykfixer

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Allowing a cancer to spread unchecked when preventive measures are available would be foolish. So would allowing a deadly virus. We do agree on that part.
I said it before, the human race does a helluva good job at spreading disease. No mandates, laws or scientific explanations will stop that part no matter how frustrating it is to those watching it happen. It's reality doing what reality does.

However, if the population that is not largely harmed by covid-19 end up immune through the herd thing that in my view should not be dismissed. So to try to argue down a viewpoint of the possible benefits of the herd immunity aspect is kinda pointless really. A combination of prevention techniques, treatments, inoculation and herd immunity will eventually nip this thing in the bud. Looking at recent numbers shows that seems to be working. I use the term "seems to be" simply because it's still too early to tell. The millions who had covid with little to no effects has placed a large number into the immune category. For how long? It can only be guessed at this point.

We have all kinds of technology we did not have 100 years ago. But we also still do a helluva good job at spreading disease. We likely always will despite mandates, treatments and inoculations. Especially in America where the population at large does not take well to being corraled, research be damned.

One positive is polls that used to say more than half of the population says "no freaking way I'll get that shot" has now been whittled down to less than 1/5th of those asked. Around 30% say "I don't want to but, yeah ok"………
 
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idleprocess

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Allowing a cancer to spread unchecked when preventive measures are available would be foolish. So would allowing a deadly virus. We do agree on that part.
I said it before, the human race does a helluva good job at spreading disease. No mandates, laws or scientific explanations will stop that part no matter how frustrating it is to those watching it happen. It's reality doing what reality does.
Upside of the hated mandates is that millions more of us are around to complain about them.
 

KITROBASKIN

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On a side note, is it just me or did we time warp back 9 months?

These are the threads of our lives. Truly a soap opera going on, amid the genuine suffering, death and sorrow. Hopefully a suitable resolution holds promise. Life is dangerous, after all.

One strain of opinion finds it convenient to not remember that the vast majority of younger, healthier humans are not prone to this disease. Some of the vehement are still proclaiming that if the human race would fall subject to a behavior-dictator, we all would have crawled into a hole for six weeks and this virus thing would have petered out way back when.

What we are seeing here is that folks are getting more comfortable being out and about, and the Target store actually had some 91% topical alcohol in stock. Now if we can just ask Godzilla to get that container ship in the Suez Canal unstuck...
 
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