Snowmageddon '21

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The electrical power situation in TX has gotten pretty bad. ERCOT normally reports >70GW of capacity but the past couple of days it's been <50GW with margins well below the acceptable minimum of 4GW. Rolling blackouts - and just plain equipment failure blackouts - are happening statewide in the face of record-shattering cold.

But why the drop in 20gw of capacity? If extreme heat I could understand as they might not be able to cool equipment properly.
 
We are still snug as a bug w/ all amenities. Wife managed to _carefully_ make it to work this early am. It continues to snow as I type this.

Family A continues to struggle with no utilities of any type and a leaking generator.

Family B felt smug and failed to store water... the power failed to the pumping station. Now they have no water, no drinking, no washing, no FLUSHING. They are getting a bucket and walking to the neighbor's pond for flush water.
 
But why the drop in 20gw of capacity? If extreme heat I could understand as they might not be able to cool equipment properly.

I gather that the thin margins on capacity vs demand in a dynamic situation caused some plants to go offline.
 
I just got notices from both gas and electric companies here. The gas company is struggling to keep up with demand and may run low on gas causing outages while the electric company is saying they are going to implement rolling 2 hour outages and both want people to reduce your thermostat and usage. I had to turn mine up because I already have 1 frozen pipe and it is not going to make it to even 20 degrees in the daytime till Thursday here and not out of freezing at all till Friday I think they are saying 34 degrees Friday which isn't going to help a lot as it drops down to 20 at night again.
 
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I totally agree. Don’t forget earthquakes. And hurricanes and flooding on the other coast. The midwest is overall quite safe. Inconvenient at times, perhaps, but rarely dangerous. Even tornados are pretty rare here in WI.
The hurricanes and flooding are less of an issue the further north you go. NYC gets a bad one once in a while, but it's not an annual thing like in the southeast. Biggest weather issue here as far as I'm concerned are the hot and humid summers. And the insects that come with it. At least from mid-fall through late spring there's no insect problem.
 

Some back-of-the-napkin math suggests that the astronomical $9,000 / MWh pricing is netting generators something to the tune of $10 Billion a day in hypothetical revenue. I'd hope they can ruggedize the heck out of the grid for that kind of money.

But in reality I suspect they're only going to collect a small fraction of that since the utilities will be bankrupted many times over and such pricing failed to 'incentivize' additional supply to meet demand.
 
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Family B felt smug and failed to store water... the power failed to the pumping station. Now they have no water, no drinking, no washing, no FLUSHING. They are getting a bucket and walking to the neighbor's pond for flush water.

I bet most people don't think about the water problem during an electrical outage. During our 5-day power outage in 2012, we were lucky enough to still have water service (in my area at least), but by the third day there was some worried discussions on the radio about losing water supply once the reservoirs were empty and couldn't be pumped up again.

I already had about 6 gallons of drinking water in the fridge, and after the first day I filled a few more empty milk jug leftovers just for good measure.

Now I also keep two 5 gallon plastic jerry cans full of water in addition to the stuff in the fridge.
 
Despite insulating caps, my outdoor hose spigots froze (surprise, surprise, said caps are really only meant for brief cold snaps that merely dip below freezing). I first attempted a few minutes oil lantern flame - left a nice coating of soot but didn't do a thing. Next I broke out the heat gun (hair dryer) which worked like a champ. Went to address the other one and my failure to fully close it seemed to have remedied the problem. Stuffed the caps with some plastic bags to improve their nominal R-value and am content that I at least don't have burst pipes.
 
Despite insulating caps, my outdoor hose spigots froze (surprise, surprise, said caps are really only meant for brief cold snaps that merely dip below freezing). I first attempted a few minutes oil lantern flame - left a nice coating of soot but didn't do a thing. Next I broke out the heat gun (hair dryer) which worked like a champ. Went to address the other one and my failure to fully close it seemed to have remedied the problem. Stuffed the caps with some plastic bags to improve their nominal R-value and am content that I at least don't have burst pipes.

We used the styrofoam filled plastic caps under normal situations. I wrapped a towel around those, applied electrical tape to hold in place, wrapped a plastic trash bag over that, and more tape. Held down to 6F last night.
 
We used the styrofoam filled plastic caps under normal situations. I wrapped a towel around those, applied electrical tape to hold in place, wrapped a plastic trash bag over that, and more tape. Held down to 6F last night.

I'm pretty lousy with bits of leftover styrofoam insulation - might fashion some boxes with multiple strata for future use since those caps have brief service lives anyway.
 
I wonder if bubble wrap would be a good insulator for hose spigots?
I grabbed a couple of handfuls of blown attic insulation and stuffed it into one gallon ziplock bags. I taco folded one bag over each spigot and let it drip. So far no freezing.
 
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I wonder if bubble wrap would be a good insulator for hose spigots?
I grabbed a couple of handfuls of blown attic insulation and stuffed it into one gallon ziplock bags. I taco folded one bag over each spigot and let it drip. So far no freezing.

You don’t have interior shut offs for the outside spigots?
When it gets cold up here, we shut them
off and open them to allow for expansion.
I’m pretty stunned to hear that no one bothers to insulate homes down there; it also helps keep the heat out and cold in.
 
You don’t have interior shut offs for the outside spigots?
When it gets cold up here, we shut them
off and open them to allow for expansion.
I’m pretty stunned to hear that no one bothers to insulate homes down there; it also helps keep the heat out and cold in.

My home is pretty well insulated, but no shut off valves for outside spigots. I don't know anyone who has them. A prolonged freeze like this is rare in South Texas.
 
I guess I never thought about it - is it primarily electric heat in the south? I suppose that’s why the cold crashes the power grid. Here in the north heat is natural gas, propane, or possibly fuel oil in an old house. Never worry about power outages in cold weather. Learn new things all the time! Sorry to hear of so many dealing with things they are (understandably) not prepared for.
 
I guess I never thought about it - is it primarily electric heat in the south? I suppose that’s why the cold crashes the power grid. Here in the north heat is natural gas, propane, or possibly fuel oil in an old house. Never worry about power outages in cold weather. Learn new things all the time! Sorry to hear of so many dealing with things they are (understandably) not prepared for.

Yes. And I've lived with it long enough to not think to mention it.

Most rural are electric only... some will have a propane tank, but that's rare. Heat pump for HVAC needs. Elec water heating. And if you are far enough out, elec deep well pump also. So no electricity = end of civilization.

Some of the suburbs have nat gas heat.

But, that said, I think TX's problems are (for what I read) related to problems with natural gas facilities NOT being properly winterized.

The 'south' overall actually does quite well for electricity capacity (and pricing also). For a while, MS had the lowest KWH prices in the nation. We get a fair bit of our power from a nuke plant on the MS river. If us dumb old rednecks can manage to NOT blow ourselves up... it should be fine for everyone else.
 
I guess I never thought about it - is it primarily electric heat in the south? I suppose that’s why the cold crashes the power grid. Here in the north heat is natural gas, propane, or possibly fuel oil in an old house. Never worry about power outages in cold weather. Learn new things all the time! Sorry to hear of so many dealing with things they are (understandably) not prepared for.

When the climate extreme to design around is ~6 months of withering heat and but a handful of days below freezing per year, electric heat makes sense from a cost perspective. Some heating elements inline with the HVAC is far cheaper than a gas furnace. In places with gas in the south, furnaces are also sized for similar assumptions; in my case mine has been able to keep up, but had temperatures gone below zero I'm not sure it would have been adequate.

I also suspect there are also some non-HVAC thermal design changes in structures between regions that make them perform better for the regional extremes but worse in the opposite extreme.

But, that said, I think TX's problems are (for what I read) related to problems with natural gas facilities NOT being properly winterized.
Just about everything related to power production and transmission wasn't properly winterized. TL;DR : Federal standards mandate this sort of thing, ERCOT's standards don't.
 
I've been very blessed not to lose power this week. My gas furnace is powered by electricity and from the little bit I've researched, running a modern furnace from a generator can fry the electronics if not grounded correctly. Other than installing a gas space heater or my gas fireplace, I'm not sure how else I'd heat my home.
This weather is rare though. As of 10pm last night we were at 95 hours below freezing (photo was from the 4pm) with 109 being the record.

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