Solved: The Tariffs have been cancelled

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jon_slider said:
Emisar did not add any Tariff fees to my Jan 29 order.
It has not shipped yet (CNY til the 14th).

So far, Nobody (on CPF, BLF, nor Reddit), has posted a mention of having paid a Tariff.
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There was a guy on Reddit who ordered from Timefactors. Watch was ~$500.
Eddie's business is out of the UK and that's where he ships from, but the watches are made in Hong Kong so he listed Hong Kong on the customs form. The watch was shipped into the States using UPS.

UPS wanted $80 in duty fees to release the watch. That's new.
 
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What will be the effect of tariffs?
Imports will cost more than before.

Will that cause a shift to buying more 'made in the USA"? perhaps initially the sentiment will swing that way, but will the additional cost of the tariff make up the difference in the cost of made in the US vs made elsewhere? If not, then will:
1. the patriotic shift of buying made in the USA, or
2. the drive for better quality of made in the USA;
be sufficient for the buyer to pay more to buy from the USA?

If there is a significant shift in the DESIRE to buy "made in the USA"
1. are the products still made in the usa?
1a. does the USA have the capacity to meet the increased desire?
1b. is there enough profit for the US to increase its capacity? or will it still be profitable to import goods.
1.c. How long will it take for the US to increase its capacity?

With the drive to increase manufacturing capacity will that create more jobs?

Once increased manufacturing capacity has been increased, will the number of jobs increase? OR will the manufacturing process be automated?

If it creates more jobs, who will fill them? Unemployment is at an all time low. Many find it hard to fill employment vacancies. Will we see an increase in employees pay rate, thus increasing the cost of production? What's it called when the cost of goods increase? Inflation?

If we get rid of all of our immigrants, we'll have a smaller work-force. It's a vicious cycle.

IMO in order to keep up with China, we need more manufacturing, and much of it needs to be automated.
I may be completely off base here, but here we go.
The East coast long shore men went on strike in part to prevent the companies that own, or operate the East Coast ports, from modernizing and automating. The Union won, at least a delay. However China is building modern ports around the world, with lots of automation. I believe that shippers will prefer to use ports that are automated because they will either be faster, or cheaper. Again, I believe that China has three modern ports operating near the Panama Canal, while the US has only one, (and I don't know if it is modern).

We need to bring manufacturing back to the US. I think incentivising manufacturers to do so like with the chip act is a better way to do it.
 
Considering the demographic crater that China (and others) are facing, we needed to be building up replacement manufacturing a decade ago. Better late than never, I guess.
I expect we will se much of it shift to Mexico, and the associated trade routes will have to be beefed up.
I'm not sure the US will see ever the low price manufacturing return in any real way, American labor is just too expensive; but expect a resurgence of blue collar and mid to high cost manufacturing come back within the next 20 years, and all the associated infrastructure to support it. They've already started cancelling some coal plant decommissions.
 
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iacchus said:
Considering the demographic crater that China (and others) are facing, we needed to be building up replacement manufacturing a decade ago. Better late than never, I guess.
I expect we will se much of it shift to Mexico, and the associated trade routes will have to be beefed up.
I'm not sure the US will ever the low price manufacturing return in any real way, American labor is just too expensive; but expect a resurgence of blue collar and mid to high cost manufacturing come back within the next 20 years, and all the associated infrastructure to support it. They've already started cancelling some coal plant decommissions.
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Yes they are also restarting at least one nuclear plant in PA.
 
jon_slider said:
Update:

Trump suspends tariffs on small packages from China

"His revision to the order on Friday said tariff-free treatment for packages from China worth less than $800 would remain in place until "adequate systems are in place to fully and expediently process and collect tariff revenue".
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A salient point in all this chaos that is often missed is that while the sitting president can declare all sorts of things by executive order, if they are a positive change (DO something rather than STOP doing something), that costs money.
An executive order cannot fund these changes, that is the job of Congress.

So what we had was basically a very expensive change that would require more manpower and systems to enact, but no money to actually do any of that. Biden's administration tried tackling the De Minimus exemption as well, but they were actually struggling with how to go about it w/o wrecking everything first. That process was ongoing in the background of all this. Search for "Entry of Low-Value Shipments" on regulations.gov. It is currently in the comment period, which is how things usually work. CBP estimates it would need ~18,000 new employees to actually do what the executive order (and the Biden administration's previous proposal) wanted.

Add to this, it seems Trump is using a law from 1977 to enact these tariffs. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This law is widely held to offer the executive branch the power to block incoming imports from countries. There is some argument over whether it can even be used to allow the imports and just impose tariffs on them.

And on top of it all, the courts are yet to decide if blanket tariffs are a power of the executive branch, rather than tariffs on particular goods.

It seems a lot of things are just up in the air right now.
 
We needed another Baby Boom quite a few years ago, so we would have many more workers of today to pay for the Boomers who are going on Social Security. I think "maybe" a small part of Biden's open door policy was the idea to quickly inject labor into the society to save Social Security--problem is, he just made the whole nation worse than if he hadn't opened the door. It seemed to me that everything Biden did was to create chaos, overload the social safety nets, and tear down the nation. One of the things I recognized from the book 1984 was the rewriting of history, i.e. the 1619 Project, and other things that were done, such as the tearing down of statues, the renaming of military posts and geographic locations, DEI and ESG. It is like they used George Orwell's book as part of their manual, along with Cloward-Piven Strategy.

I expect Trump to propose tax and other legislation to encourage couples to have children, lots and lots of children. But until we get the population down, and the rents and mortgages under control, they aren't going to be able to afford lots and lots of children. Cutting the size and expense of the federal government will go a long way to keeping money in the taxpayers' pockets, as well as his new Sovereign Wealth Fund. Great idea, should have been put in place decades ago. Same with the External Revenue Service idea. The man wields tariffs like a sword, and he generally gets what he wants, which is NOT necessarily what he says that he wants.

I really admire Trump. He is quite the idea man. Very creative with solutions to problems that others just haven't been able to fix. Like the Gaza Strip thing. Whoda thunk it? Of course, we don't know whether it will solve the problems over there in the Middle East, but we do know the two state idea just wasn't working, and common sense told me a long time ago that it wouldn't. Bone head idea. There was/is no way the Palestinians were/are going to let Israel live in peace. Same as GW Bush thinking Democracy would work in a Muslim country--they are incompatible! I suppose I will get flamed for stating that, but, hey, that's my opinion. Debate me if you want, just keep it civil, umkay?

Funny thing, Japan was westernized before WWII. Men wore suits and ties, women wore western dresses...same in Iran before the Shah was overturned. Then the radicals in both countries changed things, and turned the clock back. Japan returned to their Samurai/"way of the Bushido" heritage, and Iran went Islamic republic, or whatever they made their government. Kind of a religious monarchy? Duno. Too exhausted to remember. Theocracy, I believe. Anyway, I think Trump may have an idea there with Gaza that just might work. Time will tell. Maybe some day I'll say that it was a bone head idea. Hope not, I want it to work. Give Peace a Chance. Right? While I'm hopeful, I'm not real optimistic about the chance for success. Those people over there have been killing each other so long, I can't see them ending the feud. Hope they do, though. Wouldn't that be nice?
 
I, for one, am going to see how the looming constitutional crisis shakes out before committing more children to existence.
 
IMA SOL MAN said:
Hey, knucklegary. Thanks for the welcome back.

As I recall, you live in CA. Hope you still have your home intact.
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Fortunately we're located about 500 miles North of the LA fires. Although we have our own worries up here as well. Years of BLM mismanagement has increased fire dangers to all time highs. Homeowners (folks who still have insurance ) rates getting ready to skyrocket.. and the controlling moron in this State has nothing better to do but fly back and forth to Washington DC browning his nose. Nothing's changed here SNAFU
 
Is this really "solved" or just postponed until he changes his mind again? I'm glad it's suspended for now as I have an order mid transport (earbuds), but I'm hesitant to test my luck ordering anything else.
 
knucklegary said:
Fortunately we're located about 500 miles North of the LA fires. Although we have our own worries up here as well. Years of BLM mismanagement has increased fire dangers to all time highs. Homeowners (folks who still have insurance ) rates getting ready to skyrocket.. and the controlling moron in this State has nothing better to do but fly back and forth to Washington DC browning his nose. Nothing's changed here SNAFU
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IMG_2927.jpeg
 
sim1tti said:
I, for one, am going to see how the looming constitutional crisis shakes out before committing more children to existence.
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This world has become diseased, immoral, and downright disgusting. With those suffering from severe mental and emotional issues not just allowed to roam free, but placed into positions of power. Best thing I did for all of my children.... was to refuse to have any of them at all!
 
defloyd77 said:
Is this really "solved" or just postponed
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well, semantics with the same result.. We Have No Tariffs Today in USA

fwiw, I ordered a Hank light on Jan 29, today I got shipping notification. I dont expect to pay any Tariff when it arrives, as there IS no Tariff.

In the future, IF there is a Tariff, I expect it will be part of the Shipping Cost to USA, and I would see it in the Shopping Cart, before deciding to pay for the order.

afaict, there is actually No Practical Way for a Tariff to be charged after the fact. Especially since it has already been announced, as explained by McBob, that the Shippers will Deliver Duty Paid.. iow, any future Tariff, would be collected as a Shipping Fee, for items to USA.

but as of today, there Is No Tariff.. hence.. the False Alarm has been Cancelled.

rant:
I respectfully request that other people posting in this thread, please Avoid Political commentary...
 
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