Re: Getting Tomorrow: Bohmen X995/BF-695
I voted "maybe" for a couple reasons.
1. I can forsee LED and HID technologies merging in the lumen scale, thus making incandescent lights obsolete in this regard.
2. Startup time (except for Xe), fragility, cost, weight...all factors that make HID less appealing, especially to the general public!
3. I could see a fusion of LED and HID technologies in a single light to satisfy different needs at different times. Note that the smallest commercial HID lamp and ballast,the Welch Allyn Solarc, is 10W/500lm, and overdriven LEDs can almost do half that.
4. Electronic components are getting smaller all the time! Ballasts tomorrow may not be nearly as big as ballasts today, and shrinking of the lamp itself may be feasible.
I'm sure there are other reasons, but these are the ones I can think of off the top of my head.