another Avian flu thread

raggie33

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im not to concened i think the iran war will be the end not the bird flu.
 

powernoodle

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I'm paranoid by nature, but the avian flu threat merits real attention. The brainiacs say there is a 50-50 chance that it mutates to a form that is transmissible from humans to humans. And in its current form it kills about 60% of those infected. Forget Y2K and volcanoes and the Middle East. This thing is a real threat, and no one other than the talking heads on 20/20 seem to notice.

What happens if that one in two chance happens and it does mutate to a form which humans can spread? It ends up in North America, for one thing, because you can't stop it. People stop going to work, because they don't want to die. And when people stop working, food doesn't get to your grocery store and chlorine doesn't get to your municipal water treatment facility. And thats just the good part. If you think I'm overly paranoid, consider what you will do if the flu is all over your city or town and its killing more than half of everyone it touches. You won't leave home either, unless you are starving.

I'm doing my best to prepare. Food and water hoarding to the extent I am able; water filtration; ancillary supplies like meds and vitamins. And I dropped 5 bills today on several hundred 3M N95 particulate masks for those times I will have to leave the house for food.

Otherwise, the Powernoodles will not leave the Powernoodle Compound. There won't be any place to go anyway.

:wow:
 

raggie33

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i just hope the end is quick id hate slow death.this is supped to be the chicken captal of the usa where i live
 

Mike Painter

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raggie33 said:
i just hope the end is quick id hate slow death.this is supped to be the chicken captal of the usa where i live

It will be relatively quick but chances are you will drown in fluids from your body in what is known as a "cytokine storm". Not a nice way to go.
"The clinical experience with H5N1 is that it does generate severe lung pathology with an overexuberant amount of inflammation. This leads to the lung filling with fluid and debris which makes it increasingly hard to breathe. Most deaths from avian flu have been from respiratory failure. "

If you're over 50 or so, cheer up (says this 65 year old). It tends to kill the young who have not been sick a lot.
 

raggie33

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not 50 yet.from what i saw on tv mask wont help .and that all this can be fixed if the powers that be would get on the ball .now plese note i saw this on oprah lol
 

Sigman

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raggie33 said:
...this is supped to be the chicken captal of the usa where i live
I thought that was Clinton's homestate of Arkansas?

Mike Painter said:
...If you're over 50 or so, cheer up (says this 65 year old). It tends to kill the young who have not been sick a lot.
Oh great, then we can scarf their flashlights (after they've been decontaminated of course!)..bad joke - I know! Sorry!
 
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jtr1962

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powernoodle said:
What happens if that one in two chance happens and it does mutate to a form which humans can spread? It ends up in North America, for one thing, because you can't stop it. People stop going to work, because they don't want to die. And when people stop working, food doesn't get to your grocery store and chlorine doesn't get to your municipal water treatment facility. And thats just the good part. If you think I'm overly paranoid, consider what you will do if the flu is all over your city or town and its killing more than half of everyone it touches. You won't leave home either, unless you are starving.
Not taking issue with preparing for this since it's a good idea, and the preparations cover you for other emergencies (natural disasters, terrorist attacks, coups d'etat, etc.). However, in general when a virus mutates to a more readily transmissible form it loses a lot of it's lethality. Many reasons for this, but generally any contagious virus which quickly kills its host will be confined to a small area since the hosts will die before spreading it very far (and authorities will quickly isolate the area). Therefore, that particular strain will often cease to exist right in the village where it first surfaced, provided all bodies are disposed of properly. This isn't saying that a mutated form of H5N1 won't be dangerous, either, if it acquires the ability to infect people through the air. Best estimates I've heard are 2 to 3 million deaths in the US, something like 150 million world wide. Also, remember that some people will be affected more than others. The 1918 flu killed many people, including my paternal grandmother's mother and several of her siblings. However, many people also got sick and recovered, and this without the advantages of modern medicine which we have today. By the same token, the disease also killed others with frightening rapidity. There is one account of a women who boarded a subway train feeling fine, and died before she reached her stop. It'll likely be the same with H5N1. Some, probably most, of those infected will be sick for a long time but eventually recover. Others will die after being sick for several days. An unlucky few may die hours or even minutes after being infected.
 

Tooner

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In all my years I have never put together an emergency stash. I laughed at the Y2K'ers. But I think this is the event that will finally cause me to prepare for an emergency. So what if it doesn't happen, I'll eat the food anyway. And if it does happen, but is less deadly (say 20 or 30 percent versus 50 or 60 percent) that is still alot of sick and dying people. Hospitals will be overwhelmed. Police, Fire, and other civil servants will be in short supply. In this "just in time" world we live in all retail sectors would be hit hard by a flu. Grocery stores would not be getting regular deliveries. Prices would skyrocket as supply dwindles. Things could rapidly get out of hand.

If I remember correctly exactly zero percent of current flu vaccines are made in the US. There are only a few countries where this stuff is made. If a vaccine were to be developed for whatever the final flu strain it turns out to be, manufacturing enough doses and administering it to the populace would be impossible in time to stop a fast spreading bug. I doubt they could even get enough doses to protect all the health care workers, and other responders in a timely fassion. Also any vaccine takes time to work. You could get the vaccine and still be infected for a few weeks.

I guess the up side of all this is that we are talking about it. Scientist and researchers are working on it. Hopefully the g'ment is listening and will make manufactering of vaccine a profitable motive for drug companies. We spend billions on other less importent things. ( I can't go on without getting this thread locked.)

My wife works at a hospital lab. She has nothing to do with the flu and never sees a patient, but she gets copied on daily email broadcasts about this flu thing. She has been there over 20 years and has never seen anything else that they have treated this way. So at least, they are trying to prepare for it.

Now, how long is an unopened can of tuna good for?
 
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Ras_Thavas

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For those interested in making some preparations I would recommend the Frugal Squirrel forum, and in particular this FAQ on preparing a tincture of Elderberry.

http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/vb/showthread.php?t=157480

Follow the links in the FAQ, you will find that commercial preparations made from Elderberry, under the name Sambucol, have shown to reduce Influenva A and B illness severity. It is likely to be effective for bird flu also.
 

Sub_Umbra

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It is refreshing to hear people talk about preparing to hunker down and shelter in place (shielding) for the Avian flu. This is a good example of a threat that people will die trying to run from.
Sub_Umbra said:
I can't help but read the BOB (Bug Out Bag) threads that appear here from time to time. While I'll admit that there are many situations where the evac option is the best course, I'm also often amazed and mystified at some of the types of events people talk about trying to run from.

I know that the flight response is very ingrained in all of us but we need to look in a more realistic way at the situations where evacuating would probably put our loved ones in more danger than if we had just made preparations ahead of time so that we would have the option of staying put. History shows us that cities or regions that are perceived to be a contagious threat to their neighbors are often forcefully contained by roadblocks. The same would be true for trains and airplanes trying to leave the area. The motivation to enact these restrictions will come from all levels -- possibly the President or Governor of a neighboring state, but it won't stop there -- local Sheriffs will get into the act whether they have orders or not. Ordinary citizens will want to play, too. (Frankenstein's scenes of villagers with torches and pitch forks come to mind.)

Their basic urge to confine a threat is every bit as powerful as your's is to escape it, but there are many more of them and they are playing on their home turf.

I ran across a really interesting article this afternoon that addresses this and other issues. It's a little long in the tooth but human behaviour doesn't change very quickly and I thought that it may be of interest to others here.
If this ever hits the fan government response at all levels will be something you won't want to get in the way of. I saw what happened after Katrina first hand and the Avian flu has the potential to make Katrina look like a paper cut.

This article gives an indication of the dramatic, sweeping actions that may be forthcoming in the event that the worst happens with the Avian flu.

On the positive side, the article in the quote above states, "...that at a threshold of roughly 25-percent shielding (depending on population density and the type of infectious agent), the progress of a disease can be sharply slowed." That's great news. One thing is certain. If you have planned and prepared and just stay home it looks like you'll have a much softer ride and landing than those who try to flee and will, at some point, be stopped by the flu or some branch of the government.
 
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fieldops

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It is good to see this thread. It may be repetitive, but the consequences of an outbreak would be so severe, that there is no such thing as too much discussion. Some things to consider:....This is NOT like smallpox in which people were often too sick to move around and widely spread the virus. People with pandemic flu will likely be contagious before major symptoms even surface. This makes it especially easy to catch. The whole "Modern Medicine" thing is way over stated. Yes we have alot more treatments for secondary infections...but remember we also have ALOT more people too. Estimates are that our entire national supply of antibiotics would only last 7-14 days. This is even with only 5% of our people infected. It might be wise to have some of your own antibiotics on hand in addition to your regular meds. It would be a shame to survive the oubreak, but die from an unrelated infection that would otherwise be easily treated with anti's. On the food issue, some of the Mountainhouse #10 cans are excellent values. Save your MRE's for last. On the mask issue, consider the 3m 8233 mask which is at N100 particulate standard. This does NOT mean 100% effective, of course. Just slightly better than N95. Also get the ones with the air valve (N95..3m 8511) (N100..3m 8233). It keeps you cooler and breathing with less effort. I give talks frequently in my local community on "sheltering in place". Some people heed advice, some don't. I guess it's human nature to not believe it will happen to you.

fieldops
 
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