Influenza Pandemic Simulation Reveals Challenges in Delivering Essential Services

Challenges would be one way to put it....

This article just scratches the surface of what a bioterror or Avian flu outbreak could mean to everyday life in the Western World. It doesn't take much reading between the lines to see that something like this could make Katrina look like a papercut. Just these two points taken from the article make it quite clear what direction at least some of your planning should take:

• Governments will likely direct the general population to [highlight]stay in their homes,[/highlight] and to minimize social contact.
  
• As a result, the government may need to assume national control, as in wartime, of critical infrastructure and resources including food, fuel, and healthcare. In addition, governments will need to assume responsibility for the "last mile" in [highlight]delivery of food and other critical supplies[/highlight] to the populace.

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Highlights mine.

Think about the Fed's Katrina response -- only on a much larger scale. Is that good enough for your kids?

IMO the best thing you can do for your's is to shoot for a six month food supply. If they can get food to your city, and that is one huge if, they're not going to deliver. If you're not prepared you'll be out there with all of those potentially infected people scrambling for crumbs for their loved ones in some Ad Hoc, dunderheaded distribution scheme cobbled together by some local hack politician -- you need to think about what all of this means now.

Aside from the obvious bio risks involved, in doing so you will reveal your position to your neighbors, the police, the National Guard, the Military and any looters in your locale. It is also true that under these circumstances you will actually have other, more important things that you will need to do for your family than fight with a mob every afternoon for their daily ration.

Shoot for a six month food supply and even if you can't do it, every week of isolation you can buy for you and your family will be well worth the investment. Every week that passes after the onset the new systems will tend to work better -- whether they are for food or medical aid. You just don't want to be the ones that the government learns their lessons from.

I'm not trying to come down on the government here -- it's just that it's not reasonable to think that they may be able to provide for all, in all emergencies. This has been shown again and again.

I know that there will be those who very strongly disagree with these conclusions...and that's ok. I just want to give the rest of you a nudge.

Thanks for reading,

Sub

All of the issues posted are even worse today than they were 30 or 20 years ago. Now we live in the "just in time" inventory control. So a break down of service caused by anytype of type of natural or terrorist strike across the whole nation will have people starving to death in 60 days. The family owned grocery stores I went to as a kid had storage areas that could take up up to 40% of the total footage of the whole store. The only things that would get delivered on a daily basis was bread and dairy products. fruits and vegetables was on the scale of every3 or 4 days and drygoods (canned food) was once every 2 weeks. My local modern supermarket storage capicity is only about 7% and deliveries are every day and around the clock.

I think there would not be enough military personnel available to deliver and protect the food convoys anyway let alone provide security for all of the other essential services

ledlurker said:

All of the issues posted are even worse today than they were 30 or 20 years ago. Now we live in the "just in time" inventory control.

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Yes, and the "just in time" inventory control seems to extend into nearly every nook and cranny of the supply chain. I just read a few weeks ago that in one of the worst pandemic scenarios kicked about it is estimated that the US would totally run out of anti-biotics in the first week.

Aside from the supply chain issues, IMO people are far less able, in general, to care for themselves and their families in an emergency than they were 30-50 years ago. Decades of being told that citizens are too stupid to look after themselves has been reinforced with a continual drum beat that help and relief in any emergency can only come through official government channels. During the entire aftermath of Katrina there were only two classes of people on the ground: aid workers and victims. Nothing else. Everyone not an aid worker was automatically relagated to victim status and denied any opportunity of making any decisions for themselves and their families. They were herded around like cattle, many times at gunpoint.

No thanks. I'll do everything I can to provide myself with other options than that.

After seeing what happened with Katrina, I wouldn't expect much help.

Wolfen - I think that's the healthiest way to look at it.

load up on the food and lights boyz and girls. I'm scared to death of any attack becasue think about it. Our ER's and hospitals already stack the sick in hallway etc becasue of a small spike in patients..

Imagine an attak or bird flu? WOW!

Sub_Umbra said:

Yes, and the "just in time" inventory control seems to extend into nearly every nook and cranny of the supply chain. I just read a few weeks ago that in one of the worst pandemic scenarios kicked about it is estimated that the US would totally run out of anti-biotics in the first week.

Aside from the supply chain issues, IMO people are far less able, in general, to care for themselves and their families in an emergency than they were 30-50 years ago. Decades of being told that citizens are too stupid to look after themselves has been reinforced with a continual drum beat that help and relief in any emergency can only come through official government channels. During the entire aftermath of Katrina there were only two classes of people on the ground: aid workers and victims. Nothing else. Everyone not an aid worker was automatically relagated to victim status and denied any opportunity of making any decisions for themselves and their families. They were herded around like cattle, many times at gunpoint.

No thanks. I'll do everything I can to provide myself with other options than that.

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I will agree to that. I am 6th generation in this country. Stories about our family having to rebuild after a hurrican has happened twice. Once in the late 1800's and the other in the 1920's. If the electricity goes out now most people are helpless. My mom turns 69 this year, growing up she did not have electricty until 1947.

Agreed... it's unreal how "profit maximization" and minimal overhead carry is so important in life and death situations.

Hmm...... I need to ask a couple of things.

Just how does one stockpile six months worth of food in a tiny apartment? What is the cost involved (I get the feeling it is NOT cheap), what do you buy when all the canned stuff has an expiry date of six months (again a fault of the JIT system), and how do you transition the mountain of supplies out just before expiry?

Some of us are living outside the US.. MREs are unheard of on the civilian market.

Six months really strikes me as a survivalist approach, which, to me, is complete and utter overkill. It kinda reminds me of those people building nuke shelters out of buses. I figure.. hell, if a nuke hits, we're screwed anyway. I will do what I can, but certain disasters are just so completely out of my ability to manage.

Hmm...... I need to ask a couple of things.

Just how does one stockpile six months worth of food in a tiny apartment? What is the cost involved (I get the feeling it is NOT cheap), what do you buy when all the canned stuff has an expiry date of six months (again a fault of the JIT system), and how do you transition the mountain of supplies out just before expiry?

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I've found that if you use storage containers of uniform shape and size much of it will stack against the back wall of a big closet. If you think about it there are probably all kinds of ways to save space. Throw out your bed frame and put your spring and mattress on crates of supplies. Just think about it. I think almost everyone can make enough space if they think about it.

The cost may be viewed in numerous ways. While it will cost more initially to buy a big lump of food all at once or buy a little more each week than you use over a longer period of time, it won't cost you any more in the long run. I prefer to just buy a little more than I use and spread the cost out. That makes the rotation easier for us, too. You're going to have to buy it at some point to have it to eat in the future anyway, right? Buying food ahead may cost less in at least three ways: first, if you opt to buy in quantity you'll probably pay a bit less than you are now. Secondly, buying ahead is a hedge on inflation. Third: having food on hand will tend to isolate you from price spikes caused by fuel cost increases and transportation strikes, etc. The current increase in fuel costs won't be hitting my food for a while. That's not counting the subject of this thread.

Most of the canned goods I buy actually have a life expectancy of ~3 years, which makes rotation less complicated. I also have lots of staples with two backup stoves that each use a different fuel.

Some of us are living outside the US.. MREs are unheard of on the civilian market.

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I have only a case or two of MREs that were given to me by friends as they came back into the city. I find them problematic for a long term program for us.

Six months really strikes me as a survivalist approach, which, to me, is complete and utter overkill. It kinda reminds me of those people building nuke shelters out of buses. I figure.. hell, if a nuke hits, we're screwed anyway. I will do what I can, but certain disasters are just so completely out of my ability to manage.

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YMMV. For one, I'm not really too fond of the word survivalist. If you turned on the news and saw any of the footage showing all of those people trying to get out of New Orleans try to remember that they were all survivalists. They just never gave it any serious thought and didn't realize that they actually may want to survive until it was way too late. They're options for their families were reduced to what you saw them doing. They all wanted to survive by the time you saw them on CNN. I was decades ahead of them in knowing that I wanted to live. They finally did come around, but at a very great cost to themselves and their families.

I live in an apartment. We have been in New Orleans continuously since before the storm. I looked for my place for over a year with a storm like that in mind before I found this place. We never got our feet wet. We didn't starve. We had provided ourselves with a virtually unlimited supply of clean water. We never got sick. [highlight]At no time were we any kind of further drain on the City, State or Federal governments. There were more services available for the unprepared multitudes because we were not with them, straining the very limited services even thinner.[/highlight] The cat never even knew there was a storm.

As for "six months" being too much, it's been over eight months since Katrina wrecked my town. There are many items that I put up over the years before the storm that we are still using today. We are still using these things from our storm supplies because they are still not available from our pre Katrina sources. Those sources don't exist anymore. Katrina is not over, by a long shot. If we had not put them away at some point before the storm we would have to find other sources for them, farther away and buy them at a greater cost and the whole process would be much more complex for us. Having this stuff on hand has saved and continues to save us money -- and a great deal of re-supply frustration. We are very glad we were as prepared as we were.

As I said in the OP, many will disagree. No problem. It's worked out very well for us. I'm only interested in giving a nudge to folks who may be leaning this way already.

In keeping with the original post of this thread, I know that the demographics of CPF has to include more First Responders, more National Guard and more military members than most forums do. I'm really interested in how any of the Bird Flu Pandemic / Bio-terror threats may have impacted your training and doctrine.

Excuse me if I always tend to lump Bird Flu Pandemic together with Bio-Terror attacks. I only do this because from my research it looks like the govt strategies for dealing with the two types of problems both call for an official policy of 'Sheltering in Place,' so they both would seem to pose similar challenges to the populace from a preparedness point of view.

I am very interested in how this may (or may not) be filtering down to the more 'front line guys' here who are tasked with training for events like this.

IIR, the Mormons practice something like this. The simplest thing is to have a pantry for non-perishable items. As you use old stuff you bring in new stuff. Maybe you pull a can of carrots off the shelf that's six months old, so what? I think anybody who expects the Feds to take care of them should report to the New Orleans Superdome:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/World/Official-tells-of-Katrina-dome-horror/2005/10/21/1129775925575.html

and wait for further instructions. Washington is talking about closing down FEMA. They don't seem to be talking about how on Earth one would replace it. Heck, maybe I should go find me some Mormons...

There has not been a day that has gone by for some time that the Mormons have not crossed my mind. Religious issues aside, if I had to choose a US city to be in during an emergency it would probably be Salt Lake City.

Hmmm.. maybe I was a little too skeptical and my first post came across as a bit harsh. Many talk about what needs to be done, but don't list the simple steps that are helpful to others with no experience, to whom the task looks too intimidating to be integrated into their existing workflow. It really IS easier not to think about stuff, I get very frustrated when everybody says "this is the long term goal" and no recommendations are given to say how we should get there.

Simple things like buying a bit more than I need - that's good, practical and sound advice and it helps.

KevinL said:

Many talk about what needs to be done, but don't list the simple steps that are helpful to others with no experience, to whom the task looks too intimidating to be integrated into their existing workflow. It really IS easier not to think about stuff, I get very frustrated when everybody says "this is the long term goal" and no recommendations are given to say how we should get there.

Simple things like buying a bit more than I need - that's good, practical and sound advice and it helps.

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Point Taken. Let's see if I can be more helpful:

>Just how does one stockpile six months worth of food in a tiny apartment?

Six months may not be practical for you. How about one month? If not, how about one week?

>What is the cost involved (I get the feeling it is NOT cheap),

I'm not sure where you are. The cost of food varies widely from place to place. For something like this you can wait for sales, look for coupons in the paper.

>what do you buy when all the canned stuff has an expiry date of
>six months

Look into smoked, dried or salted goods. Do you like anything that is pickled? Look for things that are pasteurized and then sealed. Poke around within a category of canned good, see if anything has an expiry date that is years off into the future.

>how do you transition the mountain of supplies out just before expiry?

You don't. Look for things you like and eat anyhow. Put them on a shelf, in a box under the bed, way at the back of the closet. Add new ones from time to time and eat the old ones, keep the average life of the stash moving forwards with you.

>Some of us are living outside the US.. MREs are unheard of on the
>civilian market.

There must be a local army. What do they use? What did the locals use to keep food in the old days?

>Six months really strikes me as a survivalist approach, which, to me,
>is complete and utter overkill. It kinda reminds me of those people >building nuke shelters out of buses. I figure.. hell, if a nuke hits, we're >screwed anyway. I will do what I can, but certain disasters are just so >completely out of my ability to manage.

Exactly. You do what *you* can manage.

Thanks Ken, that advice is helpful. Food - two weeks sounds good to me, it could buy others time to get things sorted out. Good point on buying stuff you like and eat, then you just keep replenishing the supply to keep it going. Your last sentence is encouraging

http://www.a1usa.net/gary/expire.html

This site has useful information on the shelf life of common goods. Notice that Spam has an indefinate shelf life

Others have given you good advice on how to stock up. Let me tell you a story. I have recently been eating lots of oatmeal. Not the quick oatmeal, but steel cut oats. Now, the only source of this product at my local grocery store was a 28oz can that sells for $8.99. I recently visited a website where I was buying some powered whole eggs. I noticed this website also carried steel cut oats. They sell a 70oz can for $7.99, this is about 1/3 the cost of the oats I had been buying from my local store. I bought a 6 can case of these oats, so now I have at least a 6 month supply and it only cost $34.99. When I get to point where I have opened my 4th can I will order another case.

KevinL,

A two week emergency food supply would probably make you more prepared than 95% of those in the States -- maybe more. We like the "buy a bit here and there" approach as it doesn't require a huge cash outlay and everything doesn't expire at once. We don't have much money -- but we started years ago and we have one big rule: we never just eat our stock without replacing it, unless it's a real emergency. That way we never have to start from scratch again.

We store different catagories of food for different reasons. Aside from things we eat often, we also put aside some things that we feel are special -- foods and drink mixes that are almost like treats. We do this because it has been found that when under stress, some people will actually starve to death when faced with a monotonous diet for a long time. The most likely demographics statistically are the very young and the very old. I'm not that old but I did lose weight for about the first three weeks of the K-event even though we had food for months on hand. So keep in mind that there is more to emergency food than just caloric content. We don't usually cook much with canned milk but when the power has been out for a while it's really a treat to be able to cook a dish that would normally have milk in it. We also store a wider selection of spices than we normally use. They cost very little, take up almost no room and may help keep you from getting bored with your food. I keep a case of Butter-Buds on hand for the same reason.

You can also extend your food supply cheaply by storing staples like rice, beans, etc. They don't cost much and if you put them in good containers they keep well. Just don't fall into the trap of storing only staples. (See above) We also have a very small pressure cooker just for emergency use. It saves fuel by reducing the cooking time of some of the staples and it is smaller than normal because in it's planned use there won't be any fridge working to put the leftovers in.

I think that one of the biggest things is to just think about what you'd do now and then. It's not rocket science -- but it's not simple, either. Just a little thought and planning may mean the difference between doing alright or just being miserable, or worse.

While on the 'nuts and bolts' stuff, water should be mentioned. Of course, your water supply has to be provided for before you put much into food. I describe much of my own water setup in this post.

Everyone has different ideas on this so you may want to read the whole thread.

Once you get your water supply figured it's like having a huge weight lifted off your chest. It really frees you up and makes the rest of your preparations seem much more doable.

For intermediate water storage I use a couple of Rubbermaid 32 gal garbage cans that I bought new for that purpose. Don't get the ones with the wheels. When you're in the store tip each can over your head and look towards the lights. Only pick the ones that look thickest. They are ~$16 each.

I disinfect them with a stiff bleach/water mix. Then fill. I add 1/8 teaspoon of bleach per gallon to stabilize it for intermediate storage (up to six months). By stabilize I mean to keep algae from growing wild. I keep the cover on and keep this water in a dark room (algae doesn't grow well in the dark).

When I want to use any of this water I just run it through my filter. In my experience water put up this way will lose the chlorine taste/smell in the first week of storage.

Note that I use the bleach just to stabilize the water and not to make it safe to drink.

Neat, I have a UV Aquastar for those days when I travel, to render tap water safe. Worked great during my last trip. Tap water SHOULD be safe, but the Aquastar helps turn "should" into "is". Of course, it doesn't deal with particulates, I'm aware.