Cree thunder and a panic sell off?

I was just wondering if dealers and manufactures might deep discount their soon to be dinosour stuff before the Cree`s come to town. And if they might take advantage of the Christmass season to dump them. It would seem to be the thing to do rather than get stuck with a bunch of inventory nobody wants.

And I guess I`m wondering if they do...am I interested at all. I was planning to buy lights for Christmass presents but am thinking...do I really want to gift old tech stuff?

Maybe this year I should gift other things, socks, underwear, gift certificats and such. Then next year pick up the flashlight for gifts concept.

If the Cree was just a normal step increase I would not be uncertain. But, from what I understand, it seems to be such a leap forward....

What to do? Just how deep does the discount need to be to get me to change my mind...hmm

Ken

Look beyond your insider's point of view.

After several years of Luxeon dominance, 95% of LED flashlight users don't even know what a Luxeon is. The scurry to switch to Cree's XR-E will be by the .001% of flashlight users who know.

The manufacturers have nothing to worry about. After all, many manufacturers still use multiple 5mm leds and aren't stuck with inventory that nobody wants. Heck you still see posts in this forum about 100 LED lights and other such nonsense.

Bernie

are u sure? where did u get this 95% figure from?

i doubt this is the case, if so companies like Fenix/Huntilght/Liteflux wouldnt bother advertise using Luxeons n premium bins for higher prices when they can just make something that looks pretty n sell it cheaper so more ppl would buy em right?

I'd guess that way less than 1% of all flashlight users have even heard of Fenix, Huntlight, Liteflux, etc... Bernie's right, flashlight makers have no need to panic. If it weren't for the internet, I doubt many, if any, of us would have even heard of Fenix, Huntlight, or Liteflux. Unfortunately, less than 25% of the worlds population has an internet connection. I think, for the bulk of the world's people, a common 2D incan flashlight is about as high tech as they'll ever get, maybe a 3D if they're lucky. My boss was using a Minimag before I gave them 21 LED flashlights (Chinese), which totally blew them away. If it weren't for people like us giving gifts, most people would remain in the dark ages forever! Unless one of the big boys (basically, Maglite, Rayovac, Dorcy, Brinkman, or those Chinese manufactures that turn out a gazillion plastic incans everyday) utilizes the Cree, it'll only be known by us and those who know us, which are basically a few grains of flashoholic sand on sprawling beach.

Luxeon will be known has the king for years to come, now that Maglite has adopted it. Also, about Bernie's 95% percent figure...well, I think that figure is actually very generous! Keep in mind, *we* are not your average flashlight users. We are a small group of people with a sick obsession for flashlights and light-related products! Sure, we know what's what, but the general public doesn't know, or even care about LED technology. Even though they might see the word "Luxeon" on a flashlight in the mall or the hardware shop, most won't know what it means or even care to remember what it means after it was explained to them.

Hey Bernie, I still think the 100 LED "nonsense" light is pretty slick!

The flashlight manufacturers are not going to **** on their relationship with their major supplier (Lumiled) by dumping them so quickly. Think about it. They switch to Cree, then Lumiled's come up with something that totally trumps the Cree. Now what? (totally hypothetical btw) There's more to it than just flipping the switch from position A to position B. It will happen but I think things need to gel a little more. There's a lot of buzz over the Cree and rightfully so but the big boys are not like us modders able to do 180 degree turns on the fly.

Existing Luxeon based flashlights still work as well as they did before the Cree device. Why would they suddenly need to be dumped? Its also going to take a while for the Cree device to find its stride in the mainstream due to its need for a different collimating design.

I think manufactures will continue using luxeons for a very long time yet, but also offering crees but at a very high price. If you want more lumens you are going to pay for it.....initially that is. They will take advantage of the new technology hype and then the prices will eventually come down. My2 cents.

This is in fact not much different than the leap in computer technology in the past 10 years. Think about it, they have increased many times in power, dropped in size, and yet people still buy the low end computers in greater numbers than ever. It is an elite group of computer user that by the cutting edge technology, and it eventually filters down to the majority.

Why? Cost, is the biggest factor, as newer technology comes out, older technology becomes cheaper, if for no other reason than to simply compete and grab up a new market share of the users who buy cheaply and in quantity. Another factor is that even though technically it is old technology, it is still head and shoulders above what they were using prior, this is their "upgrade", and it will blow them away.

Look at what the first LEDs cost, and the multiple cluster lights that came out, they have continually dropped in price as technology increased. The same will occur with the current cutting edge LED technology. It isnt going anywhere fast, it will be around for a good long time yet. Serving those who will pick it up cheaper than we did very well indeed.

In fact, I will probably still buy some as it gets cheaper, it will still work just as well as it does now .

Just my opinion.

Well I don`t know...but I suspect CPF has a big impact on manufactures...and online sellers. I had never heard of Surefire for example till CPF. And dispite the hipe I don`t know of any police departments that purchase them on behalf of thier officers. And the military...I also don`t know of Navy, Army, Airforce or Coast Guard members that are equiped by the gov with them. I think it`s a lot of exageration...sales hipe. It would not surprise me if CPF members or/and folks that visit here (and never join) make up a very large pecentage of purchases.

I`m not trying to pick on Surfire...could be any other brand...but not the stuff we find at Wallmart and such.

So generaly, if we slow our buying down, by folks having an awareness of dramaticly better things coming out around the corner, I think companies will have to move old merchandise before it`s to late and they have to sell off to flea market dealers. And dropping prices now is the way to do it.

I don`t think your going to see many folks posting of a new U-2 purchase at this point. I know I would not even consider spending big money on a light right now. I might spent $15~$20 on a light...maybe as a present for kids. But thats about it.

Ken

Badbeams said:

Maybe this year I should gift other things, socks, underwear, gift certificats and such. Then next year pick up the flashlight for gifts concept.

Ken

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Now let's be serious. Which would you rather get for Christmas...underwear or a flashlight?

Badbeams said:

Well I don`t know...but I suspect CPF has a big impact on manufactures...and online sellers...

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This is an egotistical point of view shared by probably more people here than one would guess (please don't take that offensively==it's not meant as a personal attack on you). We (CPF) live in our own little world. This is a chat forum and as such is not viewed with wide legitimacy by the mainstream and manufacturers. There are some niche manufacturers who may have been influenced by the goings on here but they are niche manufacturers nonetheless and the vast majority of the population are unaware of them.

I rather doubt that CPF members, as willing to buy as many lights as we are, make up a large percentage of the flashlights produced by any but the smallest of custom light producers. We could hardly touch the production of all the makers. Consider tooling alone in the tens of thousands of dollars to produce a flashlight and the other production costs that go into it, and you start to realize the numbers they need to sell to garner a profit. It would be very hard for any one forum to buy up a majority of their product, even as magnificent as we are .

light_emitting_dude said:

I think manufactures will continue using luxeons for a very long time yet, but also offering crees but at a very high price. If you want more lumens you are going to pay for it.....initially that is. They will take advantage of the new technology hype and then the prices will eventually come down. My2 cents.

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It might take a little while...but it`s dog eat dog in the world of business. I`m sure for example that Fenix would love nothing more than to release a fair priced Cree based light right away...they don`t care one bit if it hurts Streamlight sales. In fact that would be fine with them. They would rather have money in thier pocket than anybody else. And I don`t think there`s any flashlight regulatory group to ensure fairness to all.

And the dealers don`t want to get stuck holding inventory that can`t compete...it`s not about love or loyalty...rather sales and the bottom line. My thinking anyway.

It could happen pretty quick...the fastest gun stays healther and wealther. The slow one`s...the over priced ones, get stuck.

Ken

nikon said:

Now let's be serious. Which would you rather get for Christmas...underwear or a flashlight?

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Alright, you`ve got me on that one

A dealer or manufacturer or builder catering to CPF needs to consider the Cree to the extent that the CPF market will demand the Cree. I would think that many even here on CPF are practical about their lights and will view the alternatives based on illumination requirements and a lights ability to meet those requirements.

If you need 40 lumens delivered in a particular beam distribution and this need has been met by a current Luxeon light, what does the Cree offer that would make you switch? Now if you desire the latest and greatest and best, that is an all together different consideration.

I would guess that the typical flashlight customer has never heard of Luxeon or Cree and that their awareness is limited to LED itself. Runtimes, flux and lux are not in their vocabulary or set of purchase criteria. These brands of LED as well as measures of light may be in the product's literature but that doesn't mean that the customer reads the literature or makes any asssement based on this criteria.

I doubt the Cree thunder will be heard beyond the walls of CPF unless some ponted marketing by manufacturers brings up the Cree story beyond CPF.

I personally feel fortunate that I anticipated the posibility of the XR-E and was pretty much ready for its arrivial. I saw the lightning early and have had some time to adjust before the thunder was heard. I was able to hold off on some in process designs and reconfigure them for the XR-E. I still have parts on the shelf as well as plenty Luxeons of premium bin that are now less in demand (if at all, right now). The failure of the K2 to live up to its hype as well as its long entrance on to the stage coupled with the the surprise arrival of the XR-E represents significant and unexpected costs of doing business for any of us catering to flashaholics. Many have been headed down a path with the expense of paving the way now to find that a new path must be considered. It may not have to be taken but there is the risk of heading in what may now be a less desired direction. Change requires some adaptation.

Lumiled's/ Future get credit for so much but not all is beneficial. They were given full rein on a new market they helped to create but some of their business paractices, hype and activities were only viable in the absence of any credible competition. This is no longer the case. The good news is that we now have alternatives. The bad news is that we now have alternatives and must make decisions based on our knowledge of these alternatives as well as information and speculation looking forward. Instead of a single running horse to watch, we now have a horse race. If we want to bet on the race, we need to understand or know the horses. Lumileds made their bed and it looks like they will have a chance to sleep in it for a while now! :green: They played some jokes on a captive audience but now the audience has other sources of entertainment to select from.

Perhaps the K2 will evolve into that it was originally claimed to be. I know I won't hold my breath on this but maybe.....

If there is call for any panic, I would think it be in the house of Luxeon. We saw a drastic and near overnight drop in the price of the Luxeon LED's and I believe this was in response to new horses and the fact a race was mounting. The K2 showed up at the starting gate lame and the XR-E showed up a bit late but full of **** and vinegar.

CPF is awake and at the crest of awareness but who knows what will transpire in the sleepy metropolis below. :shrug:

A panic sell off will only work if there is elasticity in demand. For those bent on getting a Cree based light, the demand for a Luxeon light may be very inelastic and require a very significant drop in price. I have no plans of giving my stuff away. It can sit on the shelf and may find a new life or renewed interest later on with the next wave. Wayne Y. and I sat on A19 heads and McR-19 reflectors for well over a year. :thinking:

There is now a new dimension to the LED market and it is at the core of the products offered; the source of light itself. The market is now much more complicated compared to yesterday. Instead of a CPF customer mulling over alternate finishes of a flashlight, there are other considerations to make.

I doubt anyone knows what the eventual impact of the XR-E will be on CPF or the flashlight market as a whole. For many of us, the XR-E represents a new and refreshing breeze with a chance to sail off into new and uncharted waters. Some will panic at the adventure while others will embrace it.

wasBlinded said:

Existing Luxeon based flashlights still work as well as they did before the Cree device.

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Exactly! While I'm as excited about the possibilities of the new XR-E as anyone, my Fenix P1 (for example) is still a really nifty flashlight I'll be using for some time.

nikon said:

Now let's be serious. Which would you rather get for Christmas...underwear or a flashlight?

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Depends on who was wearing the underwear! :evil:

I sent a LuxeonV 8AA Mag to my brother so he can use it as a weapon light out in the corn fields of Indiana. Point was to see how well it handled recoil and so he can have a clue what my weird hobby consists of.

He told me that light has more technology than the space shuttle and was afraid to use it. He showed it to his "geeky know-it-all friend" who thought is was way over the top for a stupid flashlight. The what kind of idiot builds flashlights sort of statement.

5mm LED amaze most people and they have no concept of a Luxeon. Now that Mag uses them, they will be the hot flashlight gift this Christmas. Sure, CPF'ers know of the Cree conspiracy but I am sure Mag, Dorcy and others are not too concerned. Other companies such as Arc, Peak, Surefire, HDS/NovaTac and other specialty manufacturers are the ones that the XR-E directly effects.

Would you buy a Luxeon based NovaTac U85 for over $200? Would you buy a $175 Arc LS with a Luxeon in it? A $270 Surefire U2? If 70% of CPF pulls away from Luxeon lights and waits for Crees, Arc would notice much more than CPF'ers waiting for a minimagLED XR.

For now, I'll send out minimagLEDs, L0P SE or Baltics knowing end user will be amazed. Follow it up with a Baltic XR for their birthday so they will be amazed again. For flashaholics, the Cree is a spoiler that stalls the money burn rate (or increases it for us modders) I don't think the rest of the world will catch wind of this and throw the industry into a depression.

I also believe that the Luxeon lights will work as well as they ever did, and if you need a 40 lumen light then the new Cree offers nothing you can't get from your current light. Better runtime no doubt, but then maybe the Cree isn't capable of the beam pattern you need. It all depends. I can say that I will be just as happy with my U-bin PD as I was before the new XR-E lights, because it does what I need.

Don't get me wrong, I am super excited about the new XR-E, but I won't be in a mad rush to sell of my Lux lights either...

Naturally I will purchase a new XR-E light too though...

Oh yeah, and I also agree that the bulk of the public has no idea about any of this.

My dad demonstrated this perfectly while camping with us this summer when he said:

"Hey those lights you guys are using are nice. Those are the new LED flashlights I've seen huh ?"

Now my dad is an outdoors guy, hunter, camper, tool guy... He uses flashlights on a regular basis, far more than the average Joe for sure. He knew about the LED flashlights available these days, but knew little more than that because his cheapie 2C and 3D lights still worked and illuminated things when he needed. Luxeon or Cree wouldn't mean anything to him, and he is a frequent flashlight user.

Just so everyone knows I'm a good CPFer, he now has some sweet lights that I have sent him and was very impressed, lol. He seems to like the Civictor V1 I gave him alot and uses it regularly.

I have another friend who had much the same reaction when learning of our light collection.

I do not foresee the extinction of the Luxeon or fire-sale of their light devices. I could be wrong but???

I believe that McGizmo really hit the proverbial nail on the head.

I cannot really add much to what he said, primarily because I am in no way a "techie"... Just a humble user However, I have been an aficionado for many years and depending upon the circle of colleagues I have, have been considered something of a nut job extremist or a go-to-guy... I was a very early user of a StreamLight flashlight (back when it was considered almost crazy to but a $100.00 flashlight), kept a Techlight divelight as back-up, and have owned many lights since that time.

All of that said, and no disrespect intended, many of the members here seem to have the opinion that the majority of light users share their affection for the most detailed technical aspects of light devices. I have found that most actual users just want the light device to do the required job and illuminate what the user needs illuminated...

Many CPFrs are concerned about the whitest white light, longest run time, amps, lux, watts, etc... The list goes on. Now THAT is a good thing for those of us who use these devices because the result is a high end light device that provides a great tool.

One of the great things about CPF is that it allows for the interaction of manufacturers (at least some degree), high end specialty manufacturers, and extreme enthusiasts. This has allowed me to actually speak to some light manufacturers as well, something that would never have occurred prior to the internet.

One thing that I have noticed and two seperate manufacturers have mentioned as well; is that some CPFers are quite the little demanding types... They want the very best light produced, critique what a manufacturer comes up with, don't actually purchase it, and then standby and await a possible firesale... I do not think that will happen with the Luxeon lights anytime soon.

It will be interesting to see what develops with the new Cree...

All the very best,

Stuart