HDS Systems        
Results 1 to 17 of 17

Thread: CREE question..

  1. #1

    Question CREE question..

    I know this isn’t the Motley Fool Message board but I’m going to throw this out for you all…..CREE’s stock closed today at $15.45, just a hair off being at a multi year low and well over 50% off its 52 week high of $35.30 from April last year. It seem to me that this stock is getting killed while this board is talking about all the money we are going to spend on its products….Is this (stock) a good buy or is there something on the horizon that’s going to kill demand for its products?
    Last edited by Smogcity; 01-30-2007 at 11:25 AM. Reason: sp

  2. #2
    Flashaholic wakibaki's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Plymouth, UK
    Posts
    128

    Default Re: CREE question..

    I believe I read there are other issues with the company as a whole which are affecting the price. Don't quote me. I guess the outlook isn't certain enough to swing the balance. There could be an announcement tomorrow (there was one yesterday) of an even better device. Would you like to have a lot of Luxeons right now?

    w

  3. #3
    Flashaholic* Amonra's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Malta
    Posts
    779

    Default Re: CREE question..

    i would guess that it would be a good idea to buy stock now since it is cheap.
    The XR-E LED's have only just started to be used by manufacturers and i guess sales will increase greatly in the close future. this could mean that things ( Cree stock ) can only get better. unless there is some kind of miracle and the new led from Lumileds starts shipping next week.

    Amon Ra was not the sun god but a Flashaholic

  4. #4

    Default Re: CREE question..

    what's the stock ticker for CREE? (if it is CREE I'll feel pretty stupid - LOL).

  5. #5

    Default Re: CREE question..

    Quote Originally Posted by flashy bazook
    what's the stock ticker for CREE? (if it is CREE I'll feel pretty stupid - LOL).
    Yup

  6. #6
    *Retired* NewBie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Oregon- United States of America
    Posts
    4,946

    Default Re: CREE question..

    ***This is all just my opinion, impression, and DO NOT use it for investment purposes!***

    If you take a look around, you will learn that CREE is one of the largest blue, aqua, green LED suppliers out there.

    There has been a tremendous amount of competition in the small LED die market, especially with a variety of asian low end die makers entering into the market, plus dramatic price reductions, as 5mm and other SMT blue, green, aqua, and white LEDs enter into the dime a piece price range or lower.

    CREE a while ago had mentioned that this would be happening in the market, and came out with the XLamp line, as well as several high power and high efficiency, and high power + high efficiency die product lines, as well as the most recent XR-E products. Their dies are used in the Seoul P4, Edixeon, as well as other products. It takes time for new products to get moving, as it takes time to design them into products.

    In the high tech stock market, especially the cutting edge stuff, investors want to see very high growth, where you are seeing numbers like in the 40% gain, every quarter sustained. When a company is not showing growth like this, there are plenty of other high tech markets to invest your dollar into, which is part of what is likely going on here.

    Unfortunately, until recently, CREE did not have a great distributor. In my opinion, their previous distributor did a very poor sales job, and didn't have the FAEs and sales folks to properly represent the product in person. Now that they have picked up Arrow, if they send the time to properly educate the Arrow Electronics representitives in the nitty gritty of their LEDs, they could easily see dramatic increases in their sales. Avnet and Arrow Electronics are the two largest component distributors in North America.

    I see folks from corporate LumiLEDs several times a year, along with multiple visits from Future Electronics. OSRAM also comes by often in person, along with distributors and their sales reps. Even Nichia comes by, and they only sell direct.

    As CREE moves into the mainstream LED market, if they push all the right buttons, FAEs with full knowledge of their products as well as their competitors products, along with understanding all the tiny specific questions and whys and hows, we could see a whole new ball of wax in the next year.

    Right now, I see quite a number of various LED manufacturers, who often spin their products, and knock their competitors products with facts that often are not on the up and up. To me, this tells me that the competition in the LED market place is really heating up substantially.

    The high power LED field is no longer just LumiLEDs, and a bunch of wannabes. There are a wide variety of products that do a better job, depending on what your focus and needs are. The Luxeon still has it's niche, but it certainly no longer exceeds in every aspect. LumiLEDs has recently introduced new products in a paper launch, but not actual products seem to be for sale at their distributor, nor datasheets on their website. We will have to see how the availability unfolds on these parts.

    The competition in a capitalist free market system is a great thing, and we are seeing astounding advancements that not even the best scientific teams though would be possible for yet another 5 to 10 years. It is amazing and very exciting to watch.


    .

  7. #7

    Default Re: CREE question..

    Thanks Newbie, great info!

  8. #8

    Default Re: CREE question..

    I bought CREE few weeks ago, already lost 10% on it..lol
    Anyway, it might hit 14 before it could bounce back.

  9. #9
    Flashaholic* Manzerick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Boston, Massachusetts
    Posts
    2,793

    Default Re: CREE question..

    i was thinking about this also.



  10. #10
    Flashaholic* AndyTiedye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    Santa Cruz Mountains
    Posts
    2,033

    Default Re: CREE question..

    Seems to me that the LED market is about to start growing so fast that
    there should be plenty of business for everyone in it.

    I'm holding onto my CREE stock.

  11. #11

    Default Re: CREE question..

    Just be thankful you didn't buy it in 2000 at $100.00.


    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CREE...l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

  12. #12
    *Retired* NewBie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Oregon- United States of America
    Posts
    4,946

    Default Re: CREE question..

    Here is some good information on what is going on at CREE, page 13:
    http://download.iop.org/cs/cs_12_09.pdf

  13. #13

    Default Re: CREE question..

    They have to find a way to widen the emission spectrum first before it will hit domestic markets. Automotive, sure. Cell phones, sure. Office/home penetration? Not a chance.

  14. #14

    Default Re: CREE question..

    Newbie...More great info! Cree has a sell or strong sell rating from most of the analysts that follow it. I tend to think that all the bad news is factored in to the current price but I'm doing my research befor buying! I think that the folks on CPF know 1000% more than some trust fund kid working as an analyst so I'm picking your brains!

  15. #15
    Flashaholic wakibaki's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Plymouth, UK
    Posts
    128

    Default Re: CREE question..

    My instinct longterm is sell short incandescents + HIDs. On technology in the marketplace Cree sure looks a good bet at the moment tho'...

  16. #16
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    3,899

    Default Re: CREE question..

    I think the analysts may need to rethink their timetables for LEDs in the home/office space, but we need to be realistic:

    - 80 lumens/watt: That is good.... T5 HO flourescent good after the system efficiencies are taken into account.

    - 50-60 lumens/watt when driven more in the 3 watt range. Still not bad and viable for many applications.

    Cost: Still quite high for a given application. A T5 HO puts out 5000 lumens and with the ballast does not cost that much. System design is simple, no heatsinking, etc. That is say 30-60 Cree XRE depening on efficiency/drive current. For home lamps, screw in a compact flourescent and you are done. Screw in LED bulbs still have much to be desired in output.

    Life: Excellent of course (if done well).

    CRI: Can be as good as flourescent.

    Color Temp: Still an issue. Most people do not want 6000K lighting even if their eyes would probably appreciate it in the long term. They want 3000K - 4500K. 3000K LEDS are not that efficient. 4000-4500K can be efficient (I think that was where Lumileds press release was?) Cree is also coming out with this temperature range. That should help a lot.

    Color Temp Consistency: Still an issue. When people want a 3200K bulb, they want a 3200K bulb, not 2,800, not 3,400, 2,800. The high powered LED suppliers have not been very good at this. Nichia has been better than the others, but not with a truly long life part.

    Will LED applications take off? Absolutely. However, do not be surprised if it is 18 months before Cree really starts to crank out parts. Hence, you may need to hold your stock for a while to see any benefit. Keep in mind that packaged high powered LEDS while the biggest growth area for Cree, are also still a small portion of their overall sales. Even adding in the die sales to Seoul, OSRAM, etc. for high powered LEDS and you still have maybe 20-25% of sales??? Hence it will be a while before this is a true driver to Crees overall sales numbers. I think the other thing to look at is the profit margins for Cree on their LED product (and other LED vendors). It may be low in comparison to the rest of the semiconductor industry which will keep share prices down.

    Cree may be a good buy if you are willing to keep it long term.

    There could be an surprise upside as well. Look at who makes leading edge high powered die:

    - Lumileds: Owned by Philips
    - Nichia: Long term partnership with GE
    - Toyoda Gosei: Owned by Toyota
    - Cree

    Hmmm... If I was OSRAM (Sylvania), who does not have their own leading edge blue die technology, I would seriously consider buying Cree while it is cheap and before someone else does.

    Semiman

  17. #17
    Enlightened
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    71

    Default Re: CREE question..

    I had heard mention of LED backlighting for Apple laptops, and it appears that Cree will be the provider:

    http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2426

    The P/E is 15. I guess it can't be a terrible buy.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •