Gransee
Flashlight Enthusiast
We've been without the Limited Edition for 5-6 months at a time before so that is nothing new. I think what caused some frustrations this time around was the urgency of the holidays and the fact that we didn't always have an accurate picture of when we would get our LEDs.
People ask us all the time, when is x going to be in stock. We want our answer to be as accurate as possible. This is the information flow for stock projections:
1. How popular do we think the design is
2. How long will the design take to prototype
3. When will the design be ready for production
4. How many are on order with each supplier
5. When does the supplier think they will have the first units ready and how many will be in the first delivery
6. Repeat for all dependent parts that make up the whole product
7. Once production of the critical (showstoppers) parts has begun and the suppliers have given us a delivery date, offer the product for presale with a estimated date. Estimated date is the last supplier date plus our assembly time and 10% or so padding for Murphy.
8. Find ways to work around unforseen problems, try to predict future problems. This mostly involves what I call, "baby sitting the supplier". Basically, we keep a close eye on them and try not to assume anything. Some suppliers have a good history and we cut them some slack. Our electronics supplier has had a good history prior to this.
9. Refine delivery dates and communicate with the customer. The communicating part can be difficult. Not because we don't know what date we want to predict, but because not everyone reads the CPF or our website.
In the most recent case of the Limited Edition, our supplier kept giving us bogus dates. We ordered the finished LE PCBs with B1S LEDs installed back in November. Our supplier is then supposed to order the LEDs so that they can meet their delivery schedule. They ordered the LEDs but because of recent changes at Nichia (their customer service has dropped in my opinion), they got inaccurate delivery dates. Normally the product takes 2-weeks if it is stock. But they never said it was out of stock. After a month of hearing "2 more weeks". I got fed up and called Nichia myself. I worked through the system and found out they haven't shipped our order because they don't have any stock. Beside asking them when they ran out of stock, I asked them, "when will you have stock". They said "we don't know". That is why when we tell people February, we also tell them this is a guesstimated time and not an accurate estimate. We may not see another LE LED for 6 months.
Initially, I thought the stock problem was Christmas related. This may be so, but last year we had no problem getting good stock from Nichia. This year is different. Not only was the B1S out of stock but even the common B2S was out stock. We order a bunch of B2S and they sent us Rs instead! After seeing this and talking to them I really do not know what they will send us and when we will get it.
As far as stock policies, warranty returns get the highest priority over web and dealer orders.
As far as our website, it is not an accurate indicator of our stock. As I mentioned above, we will let people order the product when we think we have an accurate delivery date. So for the first couple of weeks, we where out of LEs but our website was allowing people to order. As the weeks slipped on, I realized something was quite wrong and took them off the site.
Another thing, the Yahoo order system has a bug that sometimes allows people to order product that has an inventory count of zero. It does this on the LS every once in a while and we have had to cancel people's order sometimes. I raised this issue with Yahoo and they don't know what is causing it. They assume we are using the system incorrectly. What we could do is to remove the item from the website entirely but that may screw up the tracking system since the SKU that the old orders reference no longer exists.
At any rate, I think we can always communicate better. And I would encourage you to let us know if you feel unsure about something I posted or emailed or told you over the phone prior. There are a lot of you and few of us, so sometimes the message doesn't get accurately delivered.
Btw, I am still looking for anyone who has B1S LEDs they can sell me. We will pay top dollar for them. My number is (480) 752-8554 x202.
Peter Gransee
People ask us all the time, when is x going to be in stock. We want our answer to be as accurate as possible. This is the information flow for stock projections:
1. How popular do we think the design is
2. How long will the design take to prototype
3. When will the design be ready for production
4. How many are on order with each supplier
5. When does the supplier think they will have the first units ready and how many will be in the first delivery
6. Repeat for all dependent parts that make up the whole product
7. Once production of the critical (showstoppers) parts has begun and the suppliers have given us a delivery date, offer the product for presale with a estimated date. Estimated date is the last supplier date plus our assembly time and 10% or so padding for Murphy.
8. Find ways to work around unforseen problems, try to predict future problems. This mostly involves what I call, "baby sitting the supplier". Basically, we keep a close eye on them and try not to assume anything. Some suppliers have a good history and we cut them some slack. Our electronics supplier has had a good history prior to this.
9. Refine delivery dates and communicate with the customer. The communicating part can be difficult. Not because we don't know what date we want to predict, but because not everyone reads the CPF or our website.
In the most recent case of the Limited Edition, our supplier kept giving us bogus dates. We ordered the finished LE PCBs with B1S LEDs installed back in November. Our supplier is then supposed to order the LEDs so that they can meet their delivery schedule. They ordered the LEDs but because of recent changes at Nichia (their customer service has dropped in my opinion), they got inaccurate delivery dates. Normally the product takes 2-weeks if it is stock. But they never said it was out of stock. After a month of hearing "2 more weeks". I got fed up and called Nichia myself. I worked through the system and found out they haven't shipped our order because they don't have any stock. Beside asking them when they ran out of stock, I asked them, "when will you have stock". They said "we don't know". That is why when we tell people February, we also tell them this is a guesstimated time and not an accurate estimate. We may not see another LE LED for 6 months.
Initially, I thought the stock problem was Christmas related. This may be so, but last year we had no problem getting good stock from Nichia. This year is different. Not only was the B1S out of stock but even the common B2S was out stock. We order a bunch of B2S and they sent us Rs instead! After seeing this and talking to them I really do not know what they will send us and when we will get it.
As far as stock policies, warranty returns get the highest priority over web and dealer orders.
As far as our website, it is not an accurate indicator of our stock. As I mentioned above, we will let people order the product when we think we have an accurate delivery date. So for the first couple of weeks, we where out of LEs but our website was allowing people to order. As the weeks slipped on, I realized something was quite wrong and took them off the site.
Another thing, the Yahoo order system has a bug that sometimes allows people to order product that has an inventory count of zero. It does this on the LS every once in a while and we have had to cancel people's order sometimes. I raised this issue with Yahoo and they don't know what is causing it. They assume we are using the system incorrectly. What we could do is to remove the item from the website entirely but that may screw up the tracking system since the SKU that the old orders reference no longer exists.
At any rate, I think we can always communicate better. And I would encourage you to let us know if you feel unsure about something I posted or emailed or told you over the phone prior. There are a lot of you and few of us, so sometimes the message doesn't get accurately delivered.
Btw, I am still looking for anyone who has B1S LEDs they can sell me. We will pay top dollar for them. My number is (480) 752-8554 x202.
Peter Gransee
