Monster storm in the atlantic, Gulp!

Anyone tracking hurricane Dean? It Just reached category 4, it doesn't look good for the Texas coast, as the computer models predict it will strike on late Wednesday early Thursday.

I am probably going to start to stock up on supplies before they are all gone during the weekend.

AlexGT

I'm about 15 miles from the mexico border and 30 miles from the coast.




It was a bit lol at Walmart earlier. Everyone was buying beer, water and those crappy cranking flashlights. Other downside, they sold out on those MAGLED2D's that were marked down.

Would that be San Benito Texas? I can't recall a major hurricane striking the Rio Grande Valley in recent times (Vehula?, Allen IIRC), I have family in Brownsville and across the border, hope all prepare well for it.

AlexGT

Pistolero said:

I'm about 15 miles from the mexico border and 30 miles from the coast.

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I work at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston.

Get this:

I am designated E1 (Essential level 1) personnel. This means that if the storm comes anywhere near Galveston, I have to be ON SITE for the duration. Even if it comes right over our heads at 180mph, I have to be there!!! The gulf is about 900 yards away and visible outside my floors windows.

Fortunately, the buildings are constructed to take anything the gulf can throw at us.

CodeOfLight said:

Fortunately, the buildings are constructed to take anything the gulf can throw at us.

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In that case isn't that building where you'd want to be?

It will all depend on timing. If the upper level trough backs up before its influence on Dean is felt, it will remain on a southerly track. If not, it will be pulled to the WNW or NW. we have come a long way since I worked at NHC, but forecasts beyond 72 hours are still dubious. Oceanic heat potential in the western gulf is as high now as it was for Rita and Katrina. A cat 4 or 5 landfall is possible several days from now. It appears that little in the way of features will weaken Dean significantly, except an encounter with land like the Yucatan. Eyewalls like to replace themselves every few days. This leads to temporary weakening. Some have been lucky enough to have this happen near landfall resulting in a system 1 or 2 categories weaker. In any event, I wish you guys the best. Take to heart the lessens of Sub Umbra and hope we never have to live them out.

Say your prayers for Jamaica.....150mph headed straight for it....may be the worst they have ever had. This could jeopardize their bobsled team.

AlexGT said:

Would that be San Benito Texas? I can't recall a major hurricane striking the Rio Grande Valley in recent times (Vehula?, Allen IIRC), I have family in Brownsville and across the border, hope all prepare well for it.

AlexGT

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Hah! Close. Grew up in SB and now live in Harlingen.
Beulah in 1967 was the last Major hit. Allen was in 1980. Gilbert (whew!) and Emily were some near misses.

Fieldops has good info. Right now were'r just watching. Our hurricane stock is on hand year round. I did pick up some extra plastic yesterday.

It's good to see lot's of people shopping early. Katrina got everyones attention, at least for awhile.

Pistolero, if Gilbert hadn't broken up over the Yucatan, it would have been the storm of the century. Dean has the capability to be as bad. Not wishing the Yucatan folks any bad luck but.......

www.weather.gov and click to tropical weather. That'll take you to the NHC and best (I think) info.

CodeOfLight said:

...Fortunately, the buildings are constructed to take anything the gulf can throw at us.

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Careful, don't jinx yourself!

Yes. One of the most memorable pictures from Camille was of the cement steps, standing alone, that were part of the (then) recently constructed "hurricane proof" house.

Should I be worried?

I live where the yellow dot is. I have all my lights ready, and I guess I should get a couple of sand bags. With my luck they'll call me in to work. Now that I think about it I'm more then sure I'll have to work EXTRA just cuz of this damn strom. I work at a county jail.

Re: Should I be worried?

With the size of Dean you are most likely to have TS winds and some flood since the north side of the storm usually is the worst.

HTH
AlexGT

Re: Should I be worried?

I'd get the hell out of there - but then, the way some flashaholics act on board, it's a flashaholic's dream come true to actually use their flashlights in an emergency situation. Good luck whatever you choose to do.

Re: Should I be worried?

knot said:

I'd get the hell out of there - but then, the way some flashaholics act on board, it's a flashaholic's dream come true to actually use their flashlights in an emergency situation. Good luck whatever you choose to do.

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I think dangers are best avoided. Lights are like insurance policies. It's nice to have them but better not to have to make a claim!

If in doubt, leave. I'll make that call probably Sunday night Monday am. Our hurricane retreat is 40 miles inland and we'll go there if is a cat 1 or 2. Anymore than that, and we go way further inland.

if this link works
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/hurseas2007movies/Dean-compressed.mov
that movie should be updated as it moves.

Good luck guys, I hope the best occurs and not the worst. We will all be praying for that.

Good luck to everyone in Dean's potential path. Be prepared!

I have a bad feeling that Jamaica is a complete goner. They are screwed big time.

If Jamaica takes a direct hit, it would be the worst in a century. Even Gilbert in 88 was just a cat 3 as it passed over Jamaica. Gilbert followed a very close course to Dean and actually held the Atlantic basin pressure record of 888mb until Wilma broke it in 2005 at 882mb or about 26.05". One quick approximation in conversion is to divide the pressure in mb by 33.86 to get the pressure in inches. Track reasoning remains unchanged with the only feature that could affect Dean being an upper level trough in the Eastern Gulf. This trough is moving west and most dynamic modeling now agrees that the trough will not pull Dean to the NW. I hope that this solution works out as Southern Texas would be spared. Do not let your guard down. Even small wobbles associated with tropical cyclone motion can affect eventual track positions. When Ivan appeared to threaten Jamaica in 2004, the eye wobbled around the island sparing them the core winds. Unfortunately the reverse can happen also. Modeling is in excellent agreement on a track just south of or directly over Jamaica. This would be devastating. Concentric eyewalls showed on recent imagery and indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle was in progress. Winds were down to 145mph on the 0300z advisory. This was even as pressure dropped to 918mb. The eyewall will likely reorganize soon and the winds should respond in kind to the pressure falls. My heart goes out to those in the path. I was on the Dominican Republic in the late 70s as Hurricane David hit as a strong cat 4. Over 2300 people were killed. Seeing carts carrying bodies reminded me of stories of the Black Death in Europe during the Middle Ages. I hope to never see such a thing again. Prayers for Jamaica are certainly in order!