Can the market handle all of the new lights and manufacturers???

Illumination

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I'm a business person, and I find the business side of my flashaholicism very interesting. I can't help to think that the market cannot support the rapid influx of new brands and lights.

Every day, there is a new light (or even a new manufacturer). Can the market possibly handle all of these new lights?

Just in the last couple of months we have had several major new brand launches as well as new lights from existing brands.

Some brands seem to be disappearing, but net net, there seems to be more new than old.

Any thoughts?
 

xiaowenzu

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There are many brands today, and most of them come and go (the Chinese ones) but the good old major manufacturers stick around because they have long experience in flashlight construction industry. They also have far better warranty as a result. Brands such as Surefire, Inova, Maglite, LRI, + other U.S brands have many decades of experience under their belt and they almost always produce solid products, instead of 'flavour of the month LED' which is the trend of lesser/newer companies - which is a gimmick. SF and Maglites own the lion share of the market profits, while lesser companies are further down the 'food chain' battling each other for scrums. :crackup:

IMO, the biggest winner of all is U.S Cree company, which makes most of the LEDs utilized by these flashlights. And they and their stockholders are laughing all their way to the bank. :D
 

NA8

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I can't help to think that the market cannot support the rapid influx of new brands and lights....
Any thoughts?

I think eventually the technology will get to the point where a lot of the high end manufacturers will be out of the game. Just like HP's calculator business faded.
 

jspalmer

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There must be more to the market than meets the eye, domestically and abroad - for every country. Its tempting to gauge the market by the trends we see on CPF, however we have no way of knowing how representative CPF is of the overall market, from a retail, commercial, military or government perspective. My guess is that manufacturers have assessed the international market (in all of these areas) and have found it to be underdeveloped on the supply side because of price and number of quality manufacturers. I don't think we'd see so many new offerings, variations, incremental improvements, and/or new manufacturers if there was any belief that the market was either a) saturated, or b) mature in terms of price and quality. The non-consumer, or government/commercial side is huge.

From my perspective, limited competition has created a tremendous historical advantage for the founding fathers of high-end flashlights, but that bubble is about to burst, because the market is large enough to attract competition, and to survive, EVERY manufacturer must produce a better or equal quality product at a lower price. Given this shift, the big guys will be reluctant to give up margin, which will create a price-point versus quality vacuum, which will further fuel competition. Brand recognition will only go so far in the face of better or equal products at a lower price. Since most of the market is and has been grossly over priced from a strict manufacturing perspective, and the market is clearly large enough to be attractive, there is tremendous opportunity. IMHO, we will see price continue to drop, quality will be maintained (and improved by market leaders) and those manufactures without BOTH quality and competitive price will lose market share and die. In the end both consumers and expert manufacturers will win. US car makers experienced a similar market transformation, which continues to this day.
 

Illumination

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I think there are a few reasons we see lost of new brands:

1) Many of the lights come from contract manufacturers...someone with a design can hire an established company to manufacture for then

2) Margins are high, particularly on the "Special Edition" lights. Lets face it...many of us are buying "beanie babies (i.e. expensive items that are not that expensive to make

3) At today's prices, you can make profits in small units (especially if you are manufacturing in China, with low labor costs)

I predict that many of the small newcomers will come and go.


I think eventually the technology will get to the point where a lot of the high end manufacturers will be out of the game.

I agree...sooner or later CPF members are going to tire of upgrades, and the general consumer market won't ever purchase from high end companies.

From my perspective, limited competition has created a tremendous historical advantage for the founding fathers of high-end flashlights, but that bubble is about to burst, because the market is large enough to attract competition, and to survive, EVERY manufacturer must produce a better or equal quality product at a lower price. Given this shift, the big guys will be reluctant to give up margin, which will create a price-point versus quality vacuum, which will further fuel competition. Brand recognition will only go so far in the face of better or equal products at a lower price. Since most of the market is and has been grossly over priced from a strict manufacturing perspective, and the market is clearly large enough to be attractive, there is tremendous opportunity. IMHO, we will see price continue to drop, quality will be maintained (and improved by market leaders) and those manufactures without BOTH quality and competitive price will lose market share and die. In the end both consumers and expert manufacturers will win. US car makers experienced a similar market transformation, which continues to this day.

Definitely. I hate to say this, but many of the Chinese manufacturers are now pricing lights as if they were Surefires... Those newcommers produce quality items, but don't have the clout to keep that pricing up, particularly as they nip at each others heels. I dont think the market will support that; pricing will have to come down. (You already are seeing that e.g., some companies charge only a little more for their 'premium'/special edition lights, while others still charge a rediculous premium - that won't last. Q5 lights just aren't that rare anymore...very hard to justify $20 premium on a $50 light.)
 

xiaowenzu

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I agree...sooner or later CPF members are going to tire of upgrades, and the general consumer market won't ever purchase from high end companies.

Actually, the general consumer have always bought their lights at Walmart - good old Eveready, Energizer, Duracell, Maglite flashlights have and will always take the lion share of the profit. I was at the local mall yesterday, and there were far too many LED lights from these manufacturers, and they're not high end either, but they have the money and power. People trust them because they've always been there. :party:
 

KevinL

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Reminds me of the dotcom days. This is the time of the 'gold rush' where all the new startups charge headfirst into what is perceived as a huge market. Out of this fire only a few will survive. The big, established players, especially those with other markets (ie. batteries) will still be around when the dust settles. Some others will carve a niche and do very well and may even go on to become household names. And a lot more will come and go.

In fact I was just thinking about a light I reviewed some time ago. We really liked that one, but they were so quickly overtaken and I've never heard that company being mentioned again in the last couple of years.
 

Illumination

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In fact I was just thinking about a light I reviewed some time ago. We really liked that one, but they were so quickly overtaken and I've never heard that company being mentioned again in the last couple of years.

Just curious who that might be. Makes me think of LongBow. Great lights; looked promising; disappeared without a trace. I still think of them once in a while and wonder if I made a mistake not pulling the trigger.
 
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