Asteroid could hit Mars!

Later this month an asteroid could smash into Mars. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1221162707.htm
First it was 1 in thousands of a chance, then it was a 1/300 chance, then 1/75 now I've heard it's down to 1/25 percent chance it could hit the red planet.

They are saying it could be like the Tunguska event that happened in Siberia. Many reported saying they could see
flashes of light, with a decent telescope, when shoemaker-levy hit Jupiter, so with Mars being so much closer! Maybe a light show?! At the very least the news will have some interesting shots...

Dang. We'd better warn them...

Naw, I don't think we'd notice one less.

:laughing:

Dantor said:

They are saying it could be like the Tunguska event that happened in Siberia. Many reported saying they could see
flashes of light, with a decent telescope, when shoemaker-levy hit Jupiter, so with Mars being so much closer! Maybe a light show?! At the very least the news will have some interesting shots...

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It's unlikely that one would see anything from here without a large lense telescope. If it is comparable to Tunguska, its impact would be around 15 megatons of energy. This is about the size of the US's largest Thermonuclear test (Castle Bravo). In asteroid terms, this is very tiny. It's energy release was about 1250 Hiroshima bombs. In contrast, many of the fragments that hit Jupiter released as much or more energy than the Chicxulub impact here on earth (the dinosaur killer). It's energy release was around 8,000,000,000 Hiroshima bombs. If you were standing on Mars then (assuming the right side of the Earth was facing you) with a good observatory telescope, you would have really seen a light show!

I would suspect your probably right fieldops and the best shots of it will be from TV but you know I gotta watch outside!oo:

Anyone seen any predictions on whether or not posible impact will be close enough to one of the rovers to get pict?

Roy said:

Anyone seen any predictions on whether or not posible impact will be close enough to one of the rovers to get pict?

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last I heard is they are hopping. I would guess it's still to early to figure it out precisely yet but in a few days!

Better Mars than Uranus!!! LOL

I wonder if the martians have a version
and if they could get tom again?!

New Scientist article from tomorrow for me>

Larry

thanks Larry, it is fascinating

How about Russia's Tsar Bomba ~50 Megatons.

Dantor said:

last I heard is they are hopping. I would guess it's still to early to figure it out precisely yet but in a few days!
__________________
Shinning on

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Those astronomers ought to take more toilet breaks. Is the shin where it ends up? :nana:

they say it's moving away from the sun now and harder for us to see. I'd like to know was it accidental they spotted it or chance. I know they have people watching for them but wow, exciting, scary at the same time!

When Worlds Collide!

Dantor said:

I'd like to know was it accidental they spotted it or chance.

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Do you mean while looking for something else (accidental) or as a result of a deliberate search for such objects (which still has only a small chance of finding them)?

I understand they a looking for Asteroids that are coming toward us, but to find one going somewhere else is even more amazing!

If it was coming straight toward us it wouldn't have any apparent motion; it would just appear to get a bit brighter over successive nights. It would also likely miss us unless it was very close, since Earth would move out of its way.

If it was on an intercept path with us (even if the meeting is well in the future) it would, like Earth, be orbiting the sun, so it might have quite high apparent motion, and most importantly, I think the greater its motion the easier it would be to predict its future path, because errors would be minimised on successive position measurements.

For objects of equal brightness, anything moving should be detected just as easily, whether its path is going to intercept ours or not.

JimmyM said:

How about Russia's Tsar Bomba ~50 Megatons.

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The Soviet device was a three stage unit using the Teller-Ulam concept. The first and only three stage to ever be tested. It was quite bulky and was not a deliverable device. The yield was quite impressive. The US and Russia long ago discovered the "inefficiency of very large yield weapons". Most devices today are between 100kt or 475kt. Several warheads of smaller yield vastly outperform single large devices. The US Castle Bravo was an interesting shot. It was never intended to be over 1-2 megatons. There was a mis-calculation of the Lithium dueteride stage and the Uranium tamper. It ended up being 14.7 megatons. Quite a difference there.

What? No cobalt thorium G?...