Actually I do think it is about oil… these guys running our country are pretty knowledgeable about oil and fully understand what disruptions in supplies can do to the world economy. Naturally they can't say that but here's the deal… only one country has significant excess production capacity and it happens to be our good buddies, the Saudis. Even they were not able to make up the recent production short falls which resulted from the internal problems within Venezuela.
I suspect that the Bush people understand that Saudi Arabia is entering a period of increasing political instability as the result of a swelling population of largely unemployable youth (9/11 proved that Saudis make crummy pilots and flight attendants). And that has been accompanied by a large drop in the per capita income (I think that it's down to around $7000). I wouldn't be surprised if the House of Saud falls by the wayside in the near future. And the people in the wings are the same nuts that thought that the Taliban was the expression of the perfect utopian Islamic society.
So go back to the first Gulf War. Here's Saddam, with a bunch of armored divisions on the Kuwait / Iraq border. He's clearly signaling his intent. But first he sticks a toe in the water and asks our ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie, for the U.S. position on the border dispute. April replies, "…we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait." Apparently Saddam took this as a 'green light' and the rest, as they say, is history.
Why would have Glaspie made such a statement? Since these folks aren't idiots I have to assume that we did want to establish a strong military presence in the Gulf and Saddam provided us with an excuse. Unfortunately after the war the Saudis got freaked and kicked us (mostly) out. And this foreign presence on 'sacred Saudi soil' was what really set bin Laden off. Good grief… it's a friggin desert... it's not like we're squatting in Mecca or Medina.
Okay, so Saudi Arabia is out. But there's always Iraq! After all they've got the world's second biggest known petroleum reserves (roughly 113 billion barrels). You can bet that we intend to stick around in Qatar and Iraq until the wells run dry. Oh, and guess which company has the inside track for rebuilding the Iraqi oil industry infrastructure. Haliburton. Anyone here lucky enough to have bought Haliburton last year when it was down to $9 a share? BTW, Mr Cheney was running that company up till he became VP.
In this context cheap oil is a myth. We pay with blood, bullets, bombs, and tax dollars. And that is a good enough reason for me for war with Iraq. Hell, if Canada had that much oil I'd be all for attacking them as well. What's handy here is/was that Saddam is/was a particularly nasty guy and the Iraqi people now have a chance for something else. But forget about democracy for a couple of generations. Right now that country needs a Saddam lite, an autocrat with a velvet fist who can establish institutions to enforce the rule of law, stimulate economic activity, protect ethnic and religious minorities, share the oil wealth, and resist the outside agitators (Syria, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia).
I was against the war for the reasons stated by this administration (i.e., WoMD and links to terrorism) but I knew we could *****-slap SH all day. The tough part is starting now. Just watch the fun. And what really sucks is that those seven POWs haven't turned up alive.