2x DVD-RW... 4x DVD-RW... and so on

I'm considering buying a TDK 4x DVD-RW+, but the way I'm looking at it right now is this: Back when CD-RW's were hitting 4x, 8x, 16x... somewhere along the road, there appeared to be a big jump in speed, up to 24x and eventually up to 52x. So my question is, how much longer do you think it'll take before the general public sees a 16x or even 24x DVD-RW?

I remember my 4x CD-RW drive just lugging along like it had tar on its wheels... my 40x12x48x CD-RW just blazes away at a much more comfortable speed for me. So obviously I'd prefer to wait a bit longer for a faster model. So again, the question is, when?

Any rumors/ideas/thoughts on this?

I'm going to guess it will be 18-24 months before you see 16X and higher DVD-RW. The US is in a long-term recession and Japan is in a depression.
The worldwide economic slump means that there are

1.) Fewer units selling

2.) Less demand for incremental improvements

3.) Less money being spent on Research and Development.

Just my wild guess.---Marc

Well if you're really in the mood to wait...I was reading on Avant go today that Sony will have BlueRay (Blue Laser) technology here soon.

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Saaby said:
Well if you're really in the mood to wait...I was reading on Avant go today that Sony will have BlueRay (Blue Laser) technology here soon.

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Blue laser?!? /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/eek.gif
You can buy blue laser diodes today from Nichia, but expect to pay around $5,000.00 for one, and only expect to get around 500 hours out of it if you don't abuse or overload it. I guess Sony bought a whole s**tload of those things and got a good deal on them, and they probably only warranty the BlueRay drives for a month or two, versus at least a year for other technologies.

I didn't think ANYONE would have blue laser DVDs or CD-ROMs out anytime soon; I guess I was mistaken. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif

The Sony blue laser is expected to yield 50GB disks. The main problem I see is that Sony has consistently attempted to create proprietary systems with unreasonable licensing up to the point of complete failure, while someone else comes out of nowhere with a standardized open architecture and burys them.

Norelco showed them how long ago when they invented the cassette drive. Reasonable licensing and absolute adherence to the technical specifications, thereby stopping the need to compete with alternative innovations is the secret. It's not really a secret, it's just that the idea of $$$$$$$$ when they envision themselves as the only seller on the market blinds them. Not everyone can pull off a Polaroid type maneuver, and even those that do seem to end up seeking protection from creditors when they notice the rest of the world bypassed their system.

Is this starting to sound like a rant? Me? I'm ranting? Oh, okay. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Another thing is transfer rate to/from your hard drives.

Faster DVD writers are only usefull if you can actually read the data faster from your hard drives.

Abe.

Excuse me, it's Blu-Ray.


Anyway Sony is licensing the technology to other companies. Then again maybe they license *all* their technology to other companies /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/rolleyes.gif

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Saaby said:
Anyway Sony is licensing the technology to other companies. Then again maybe they license *all* their technology to other companies /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/rolleyes.gif

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I hope they do it right this time. 50GB on a disk is a lot of data. Betcha' they put the disk in an enclosure this time though.

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... The main problem I see is that Sony has consistently attempted to create proprietary systems with unreasonable licensing up to the point of complete failure, while someone else comes out of nowhere with a standardized open architecture and burys them.

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Empath - I completely agree - the Sony Memory Sticks are a good example of this.

Abe - good point - I was concerned with direct drive recording from a MiniDV system to the DVD-RW drive. But it's something to consider with respect to HD to DVD-R.

Well, the way I'm gauging it, I'm expecting to see an 8x DVD-RW+ by around September/October, just after Comdex. Don't quote me on that... just the way I've been following the technology. But I'm no expert. Perhaps it's more wishful thinking.

If anyone has a better notion, please feel free to post - I just want to avoid getting a 4x and end up seeing a 16x before December - but heck, that's the nature of the business I suppose.

-Jim

Yeh - when they first came out - I got a 6x cdrom drive, and paid A$400 (about US$250) for it...

Learnt the hard way to wait till it gets cheaper.

Abe.

Empath is right about Sony. Sony, particularly the old man, is notorious for exclusive and proprietary technology. He brought the Sony Betamax to market and refused to license the technology. VHS was licensed to nearly everyone and won out. If Sony has finally learned its lesson (they can make much more money via licensing), the blu ray has an excellent chance of success in the market.

I don't even have a DVD-ROM drive, since mine died some time ago (laser head motor died).

50 GB?? Is that per Disc or per Side?? What would be nice, would be a drive that has 2 lasers: one per side, so we don't have to flip it over. Anyone remember C64 Flippies?? /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Speaking of Sony, I ran across this bit of news.

http://www.gamers.com/news/1350497

I guess some people start thinking of a way to make money off anything, even while the flow of blood runs warm.
/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/frown.gif
It's just a side point. Back to the topic, eh?

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Charles Bradshaw said:
50 GB?? Is that per Disc or per Side?? What would be nice, would be a drive that has 2 lasers: one per side, so we don't have to flip it over. Anyone remember C64 Flippies?? /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif

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That's probably 50GB per disc, considering the laser alone costs a couple of grand at least - and that's before labor and profit and all that other horse puckey is figured in.

And yes, I remember C64 "flippies" but you had to cut a second write-enable notch in the diskette cover (they sold a special pre-measured cutter for this too) or open up your 1541 and screw with the write protect circuitry. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif

If you can't wait and you need a good drive now for a fair price, I recommend the new Sony DVD recorder. This drive handles DVD+R/-R, DVD+RW/-RW, CD-R and CD-RW. I have an external model with both firewire and USB2 interface... got it for about $385. The internal model is cheaper. This should hold me off for quite some time until the new technology is at good price.

-Trevor

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TrevorG said:
If you can't wait and you need a good drive now for a fair price, I recommend the new Sony DVD recorder. This drive handles DVD+R/-R, DVD+RW/-RW, CD-R and CD-RW. I have an external model with both firewire and USB2 interface... got it for about $385. The internal model is cheaper. This should hold me off for quite some time until the new technology is at good price.

-Trevor

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I agree 100%. Get the Sony. It sells at a great price and will burn DVD-R(W) and DVD+R(W) so you are taken care of as far as compatibility is concerned.

Be sure you are aware that a DVD-R or DVD+R are not only different from each other but they may not play back on a stand alone DVD player. Most new player will play them but some older ones may not. Also, some stand alones will only play back DVD-R's, while others will only play back DVD+R's.

Realize that DVD burn speeds do not equal CD burn speeds. A 4X DVD burner will burn a full 4.7GB disc in ~15 minutes. 2X burns in ~30 minutes and 1X in ~60 minutes. So the Sony above will burn a full disc in 15 minutes no matter if it's a DVD-R or a DVD+R. Not too shabby, that is if you want to pay the premium for 4X media. Media prices will continue to fall though. DVD burners also double as CD burners.

Also be aware that you must buy DVD media that is rated at 2X or 4X (The higher the speed rating, the higher the cost). Media quality varies a lot as well. My Pioneer A04 DVD-R drive will not burn Memorex DVD-R's since they are made by CMC, and CMC makes junk discs (I had 3 out of 3 fail). I now use Verbatim DVD-R's and have only had one disc problem out of 45. I could not re-copy the errored disc, even though it played properly. Verbatim also guarentees their discs, if one fails they will replace it. My advice is to stay away from junk discs. It's not like CD-R's were you can buy almost anything and get it to work.

I don't think you will ever see a 24X DVD burner for the same reason you don't see a CD burner that's faster than 48X (Yea, I know you can go buy a 52X drive but you cannot get CD's that are rated for that speed, so your locked at 48X. The 52X drives use the same firmware as the 48X drives do). The reason is that once the disc spins so fast it just shatters. That's not a good thing. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/tongue.gif Once disc manufacturing inproves to the point were the disc doesn't become unstable at such high rpm's then we will see faster drives.

Here is a good forum to ask questions and read all about DVD burners: Doom9.org

Thanks for the posts everyone... Trevor - thanks for that recommendation and I will consider that. I like the external drive idea especially since I'm running a FireWire setup.

And Sean, geez, THANK YOU for writing up all that information. That's exactly the type of details I was looking for. I had no idea that the 4x would write in that amount of time! That's good news. When I first posted, I now realize I was actually comparing apples and oranges with the higher speeds of CD-RW versus DVD-RW. And I wasn't aware about DVD-R/DVD+R compatability issues. Yet another eye-opener.

Thanks also for the advice on the media... I didn't know that about 52x CDRW and the top 48x write speeds. I feel a lot better about my 40x CDRW. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Appreciate all the input - a big /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/thumbsup.gif to you guys.

-Jim

http://www.cdmediaworld.com/hardware/cdrom/cd.shtml

good stuff there on all burnable things, cd/dvd

I recommend a lot of reading. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif
There is a lot of info out there and I only know a little bit of it. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/wink.gif

I just got a new computer in December. It's a sony that came with a pioneer A04 DVD-R(W) burner. Now sony computers come with the actual sony DVD+/-R(W) burner that I really wanted. But I'm happy with my pioneer burner, it does what I need it to do. (I back up home movies) Also, DVD burners will burn RW's (re-writeables). These will work on only the newest standalone DVD players and are more for backing up data or testing out your DVD burner when you first get it. My DVD-RW's have gotten a lot of use.