Good news - Hanna moving NE; Bad news ... Ike...

I had to go out of town on business this week and was a bit worried about preparing fully for Hanna, which now appears much less likely to have an impact on Charlotte than initially predicted - which is the good news - we'll likely get some needed rain but not a huge amount and not a lot of wind. That's the good news.

But Ike looks like he's going to be a whopper and right now - it is quite unclear where he is headed, could turn north like Hanna and come through town after making landfall in SC or really threaten Florida... So preparations for many of us are not over...

Light wise I've augmented my kit a little bit:

I've got some fresh D cells for the 3D MagLED and for the 2D with either a MagLED or NiteIze for extra long runtime (great for tailstanding on the kitchen island pointed into the frosted glass pendulum lights which hang over it, plus my wife likes a big light for some reason and complained when I gave her a Minimag with NiteIze during the last outage)...

Freshly charged AAs for the 4xAA folding lanterns; the MiniMag with NiteIze; my son's Lumapower so he can get around; the Weather/SW/TV/FM radio; etc...

Topped of the 18650s for the Dereelight to inspect damage as well as the topped off the RCR123s for my Novatac (my primary carry around light) and have a few primaries around as backups but won't likely need them given the runtime of the Novatac...

And lastly have a few Peaks (Pacific and Kilimanjaros) with L91s as backups for whoever needs a light or wherever an extra light is needed - like tailstanding in the bathrooms!

When the power goes out - however - the NiteIze C/D drop in and the Energizer 4AA lanterns really come in to their own providing serious runtime and very usable light.

Good luck. At least you know about the threat and are ahead of most people in that respect. Now would be a good time to stock up on supplies before everyone cleans out the stores. I think Ike has the potential to become a Category 5. It's already a Category 4 and has warm waters to travel through, especially if it hits the Gulf of Mexico. Of course, if it hits the Gulf of Mexico, it won't be your concern. Then there's one more, Josephine. On the plus side, you may get to use your flashlights. Let's hope it's not too destructive for anyone, no matter where it hits.

I hope some of that comes up this way, for some reason i love bad weather especially rain & fog good thing i have a black lab who loves long walks in the rain so i can have more fun with my lights!!!

I've got a bad feeling that Ike is going to be another Andrew... let's hope not.

Yea, it looks like Ike is the danger one right now. South Florida...maybe the Keys might get hit hard...then maybe into the warm gulf...from there...who knows. I live in Tampa Florida...been a lucky area in the 40+ years I`ve been here...they always seem to miss us. Guess like all of us here on CPF...I enjoy a good power outage. But wouldn`t care for for anything more than that.

Badbeams3 said:

Yea, it looks like Ike is the danger one right now. South Florida...maybe the Keys might get hit hard...then maybe into the warm gulf...from there...who knows. I live in Tampa Florida...been a lucky area in the 40+ years I`ve been here...they always seem to miss us. Guess like all of us here on CPF...I enjoy a good power outage. But wouldn`t care for for anything more than that.

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As close as you are to Crystal River and Turkey Point I'm amazed you even know what a power outage is.

Looks like Ike might be making a beeline for New Orleans:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/144313W_sm.gif

Here in NYC we're getting the remnants of TS Hanna Montana. Not too bad so far-just lots of rain, not much flooding, not too much wind.

I've taken down the mosquito netting tents in the patio so they will be intact if Ike comes our way. The rest of the house is still in 'storm mode.'

Before Katrina there were a few here who had no faith in the government(s) to trust their preparations and the quality of decisions they were capable of making on the fly during an ongoing crisis. Many readers outside the N.O. area are not aware that inspite of the huge amount of property damage and the death toll of Katrina quite a few residents were so frustrated at their victim status and consequent denial of any input from them into most of the decisions left in their lives that even more of them swore that they would never put their lives and the lives of their familys into the clumsy hands of any government -- by evacuating. Whether or not this was a wise decision is irrelavant. It is fact. It is the result of the repeated mishandleing of the faith that the populace put into their government(s) when they followed the advice to evacuate.

Now the official effort in response Gustav has increased the number of citizens who will not evac again a hundredfold.

The government(s) told them that they had to leave because they would have no services if they stayed: power, gas, water, food, sewer, etc. Then many of those same people were turned away and refused re-entry into the city and to there homes. Some of them were out of money for hotels or gas (even if there was gas to purchase). They were stuck with their children, parents and grandparents alongside the road in the heat without the very services that their government(s) told them they couldn't live without: power, gas, water, food, sewer, etc. In some cases if they tried to get out of their cars for a moment to stretch their legs the police would put down the MRE's they were eating in front of them and shout through bullhorns to get back into their cars and close the doors. If they were allowed to go home they could at least have some food...or at the very least find a better place than their car to go to the bathroom.

I have personally talked to many returning Gustav refugees face to face and even the most challenged of them would rather be home without services than stranded on the side of the road without those same services and additionally -- being held captive at gunpoint. Duh. The response to Gustav has greatly multiplied the ranks of those who vow never to put their familys into harm's way at the hands of goverment again.

I'm not making any judgements on anyone's decision not to evac. I would also never give out advice to not evac. This is way too complicated. Elevation, location, your structure, health, preparedness, your experience in primitive conditions -- many things come into play. (It is interesting to note that government always refuses to take any of these variables into account when they advise everyone to leave. MOOO!)

I am maintaining that it is a myth that anyone on earth is an expert on mass evacuation and that there are very real, quantifyable repurcussions that impact the attitude of the public negatively when mistakes are made. Unfortunately the more people you try to move, the greater chance to drop the ball. Even if one is successful in moving a huge number of people out, as in Gustav, it presents a whole new problem that has never occurred before, moving people back in. This phase was planned so poorly that it is obvious that the planners(?) were caught completely flat footed. Re-entry could have been much worse but we were lucky. These unseen traps will still be there for future evacs to discover -- with potentially catastrophic results. I am not a fortune teller and I'm not trying to sound like one, but through my research and just paying attention I have identified many of the very problems that the planners can't seem to see. Years ago. It matters not whether the policy mistakes made are the same as before or new ones -- as long as government(s) keep bungling evacuations the number of people who refuse to partisipate will continue to increase -- which will ultimately lead to greater disaster at some point in the future.

As far as how regional this problem is, don't kid yourself. Read the history of a few mass evacuations anywhere -- no one knows how to do it. This is a world wide problem and the default level is denial.

Sub_Umbra, you're preaching to the choir about mass evacuation problems. I live in Ramona, California, the birthplace of the Cedar and Witch fires (the two largest wildfires in California history). Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people were evacuated during the Witch fire last year, including my family. So many people were evacuated that we had a hard time finding a vacant hotel to stay in even though we could afford it (the American Red Cross took the good ones). We spent a night on the west side of the mall in Escondido sleeping in cars(the police said the east side wasn't safe from the flames and 90+ m.p.h. winds even though it was a huge asphalt lot with little to burn). The next day we had to take my Grandparents to the airport to go home to Canada for their safety. They flew out to see my mom before she died from cancer. Her funeral was the day before the fires. We took the 15 south to Lindberg Field. We didn't know until we got on the 15 that the flames had jumped it and were on both sides of the road as we were driving. We made it to the airport, and said our goodbyes. We found a vacant Motel 6 in Chula Vista across Interstate 5 from the beach. The onshore breezes kept the smoke and flames away, although the eastern side of Chula Vista was threatened by another fire. After two days, we left and stayed in the parking lot of a church in Lemon Grove. They gave us some food, let us use the bathrooms and watch the news on T.V. They offered us cots, but our cars seemed more comfortable. We stayed there two days before trying to get back into town. The town officials refused to let us in, not because of the fires (there was little left to burn). They wouldn't let us in because the water pumps weren't working and there was hardly enough water pressure for the fire fighters' hoses let alone the citizens. The main system blew a fuse (the system was over 50 years old), they didn't have any spares, and spent another week or so finding one. The backup system hadn't worked for months and the water authority didn't feel it was urgent to get a new one. They finally let us in that day after someone rammed the blockade and they realized they had tens of thousands of angry residents with guns ready to riot if they didn't let us home. Many spent days or weeks without power or water. Those were the lucky ones that still had homes. I was a very lucky one. I had power and my neighbors who were fed up with listening to the authorities turned our water back on. It was green and we were told not to even boil it or use it for anything, but we did have water. The lucky ones of us checked on friends and family in town and helped out where we could. We're almost done building a new In His Steps Women's Recovery Home for women trying to get off of drugs and alcohol. Their old one burned down in the fires. My dad, I, and many other volunteers have been working on projects like that to help people recover from that disaster. Our church (Mountain View Community Church) played a large part in feeding, and sheltering the victims and giving them a place to do their laundry (Tide supplied the machines and detergent).
When dealing with a disaster of this magnitude whether it's a huricane, fire, or earthquake, remember that something that bad happens so fast that any response by imperfect people is likely to be slow at best or even totally wrong. You have the most up to date info about the needs of yourself and loved ones. Figure out if it's best for you to evacuate or to stay put. Second, be prepared or get prepared. It's hard for the government to provide for everyone in times of crisis. Don't count on them for something you could provide for yourself in advance. Next, wait out the crisis. Make sure the kids have something to do or they'll drive you nuts. Have cards, or a game for them to play (or flashlight tag). Keep young children away from the T.V. or radio. They'll already have enough nightmares about the situtation without watching the news. When the disaster is over, head home carefully. Watch out for looters, fallen power lines, flooding, etc.. Clean up the mess and help others to do the same. You'd be amazed at how much helping others can distract you from your own problems (and help you get over them).
The disaster of huricane Katrina was awful and I sympathize with those of you who lived through it. You probably had it worse than I did during the fires. After all, when Katrina hit, the evacuees were sent to a stadium and lived around their own waste. When the wildfires in southern California hit, people who evacuated to Qualcomm stadium got every thing they needed including free massages (I wasn't one of them). For those of you in Ike's path, do what what you think is best for you and your family. Don't stay just to anger the authorities.

Sub_Umbra said:

Now the official effort in response Gustav has increased the number of citizens who will not evac again a hundredfold.

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Unfortunately Sub, you're right. It was a political game during Gustav for all the politicians to "appear that they worked together and solved the problem". The real problem is that moving people from one spot to another does not change basic needs and necessities. Forcing people into a horrible unprepared situation will often cause people to yearn for familiarity. In most cases, that means "home". I guess its the old saying about the "Devil that you know" is better than one you don't. I also agree that I would never tell people NOT to evacuate. It's just that you have to show people that you are placing them in a situation that is better than the alternative. If you don't, many will stay. Good luck Sub. You guys have had enough of this stuff lately. Lets hope that the Cuban mountains rip it to a low tropical storm. All my best.

fieldops