3 Years for LumiLEDs maybe. We have LEDs in the range of 130lm/W nearing full production quantities right now.
Prototypes from Nichia, Osram and Cree are already showing 150lm/W in the lab. Won't be long now. If patents didn't exist they'd already be at the half way mark for the max amount of light you could pull from a watt of power.
