I wouldn't take any such projections seriously. The real results will depend on technological advances that haven't happened yet and aren't predictable or guaranteed until they happen. Right now many of the favorite CPF flashlights use Luxeon LED's. The 1 watt Luxeon is a superior replacement for a 5 cent incandescent bulb, but it costs around $10.00. At that price it's really only attractive to specialty and flashaholic users. If technology improves so that the LED costs 50 cents instead of $10.00, its market share will increase enormously and it will replace incandescents in a lot of mass market flashlights. If the improvement is only enough to make the LED cost $2.00, there won't be nearly as sweeping a takeover.
Asking what a 1 watt Luxeon will cost in 5 years is like asking what a 3 ghz microprocessor will cost in 5 years. We know it will be a lot less than it does today, but we don't know whether it will be $2.00 or 50 cents.
