I don't think anyone here really knows.
The current "best" near-UV LEDs you can get today are 5mm (T1 3/4) types in clear epoxy packages that output 10-12mW at 395-405nm. These use Cree Megabright dice as far as I'm aware. The "advertised" lifetime is 100,000 hours, but testing by an independent person yielded half-lives on the order of 150-200 hours. I'm not sure if it was the epoxy that degraded or if the LED's chip pooped out, or maybe a bit of both.
There have been anecdotal reports that Lumileds occasionally screws up a batch of royal blue (455nm) dice and that a very small number of ~410nm Luxeon Star LEDs have resulted (not enough indium in the dice is my best guess); however I have never seen one, nor can I actually confirm the reports.