Where do you think we are at with LED's right now?

Yeah, that may be a confusing thread title, but what I mean is this.

When I was last into serious flashlights, I got a Pelican M6 Lithium and a couple off-brand Luxeon 5w lights. Those were state of the art at the time, and frankly they put out a lot of light, but nowhere near where the Cree LED is at.

With various versions of the Cree available, are flashlights progressing now at a rate that computer speeds were progressing a few years ago? Are today's lights going to be considered weak and expensive compared to what the market will be in a year?

Since just recently jumping into the flashlight marketplace again, I don't really want to spend 4 or 500 bucks on lights if the will be a lot less expensive or way better output in another year or so. Maybe just one or two lights will hold me over until later.

The technology curve is so easy to sink money into, whether it is phones, computers, TV or flashlights. Anyone have a good grip on where price and performance is heading?

I think we are starting to slow down. The XRE was revolutionary, but we're starting to stretch the limits of LED's. We can probably see higher drive current LEDs in the future, but lower efficiency gains.

We're pretty limited by what batteries are capable of. Ignoring that stumbling block LEDs can get roughly twice as efficient as they are now. Conservation of energy set a hard cap on how much light can be produced from electrical energy, and we're almost halfway there. The closer we get to ideal efficiency the less heat an LED will produce as waste, heat output as efficiency increases will decline at an exponential level , allowing much higher drive power, perhaps thrusting them beyond 10,000 lumens per emitter at the sizes we're familiar with, consuming a mere 40 watts or so and still running cool enough to work in pocketable flashlight. This is gonna take some time barring the arrival of a yet undiscovered technology, maybe 10-20 years at the current development rate??

Costs should go down as LEDs are starting to gain footholds in industrial, automotive, and home lighting markets. This will drive demand up and hopefully economies of scale will further reduce LED costs and gross profit increases will help fund research into better emitters. What it won't do is make flashlights much cheaper. A top of the line Cree XML costs less than 10 dollars, it's everything else that goes around them that creates the 40-500 dollar flashlight.

Bottom line is enthusiast flashlights might hit 2000 lumens with 1-2 hour runtimes late next year, right now we're at around 1000 lumens with top end hardware in reasonable packages. More isn't that hard but heat, flashlight size, and short runtimes are big hurdles to overcome, and one of those is gonna need some huge increases in battery capability. At the end of the day we only need so much light from a single emitter. A pair of SST90's or XML's can produce more light than some car's on the road today. A 150 dollar Cree XML flashlight will put a Surefire M6 with the 500 Lumen high output lamp to shame, and an M6 is no slouch. 1000 lumens 10 years from now isn't going to be any dimmer than 1000 lumens today.

Here's a post with some visual aids. The surefire M6 with 500 Lumen HOLA is at the bottom. The first light has a Cree XP-G R5, then a low power XML, the last generation Cree MC-E, and finally an XM-L at close to full power. http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb...K41-and-TK70&p=3603650&viewfull=1#post3603650

good information there, thank you.

The Varapower 2000 puts out 2000 OTF, just saying.

wonder when we will see active cooling in torchs.

@ Beerwax

We probably still won't. As Yoda explained, as LED's become more and more efficient, the heat-to-light output ratio will decrease. LED's will produce more light while running at similar temperatures, or the same light at much decreased temperatures. So Active cooling, which has a huge number of practical hurdles, will be less and less necessary.

Let me preface my point by saying I am an affirmed LED addict however it seems counter intuitive that a source of light produces heat yet heat diminishes the light output is an ideal solution. If a new power source came along that allowed lots of power in a small easily rechargeable package I might well go back to hot wire or even HID. This notion that the LED produces heat and heat makes it less and less efficient means that LED's will not be the long-term solution to our flashlight or home lighting needs.

As LED's have become more efficient we always want to drive them harder for even more output and the heat issue again rears its ugly head so I don't ever envision a day when heat is no longer an issue. Whether producing 200 lumens or 2000 if the unit cannot keep regulation due to heat I'll be disappointed. Hot wires drop in output as battery does and I have no problem with that. I don't like the need to step down LED output with a well charged battery because it is getting too hot.

I expect a new technology, i.e. different from the existing blue chip + yellow phosphor couple, will be mature and become the standard within two or three years. There have been prototypes for a couples of years and these should solve several issues in terms of efficiency, lifetime, and probably CRI.

recDNA said:

Let me preface my point by saying I am an affirmed LED addict however it seems counter intuitive that a source of light produces heat yet heat diminishes the light output is an ideal solution. If a new power source came along that allowed lots of power in a small easily rechargeable package I might well go back to hot wire or even HID. This notion that the LED produces heat and heat makes it less and less efficient means that LED's will not be the long-term solution to our flashlight or home lighting needs.

As LED's have become more efficient we always want to drive them harder for even more output and the heat issue again rears its ugly head so I don't ever envision a day when heat is no longer an issue. Whether producing 200 lumens or 2000 if the unit cannot keep regulation due to heat I'll be disappointed. Hot wires drop in output as battery does and I have no problem with that. I don't like the need to step down LED output with a well charged battery because it is getting too hot.

Click to expand...

But thats... unjustified? You hate on every LED that drops output over time from heat regulation. But the incan will be constantly dropping its output-and you consider that acceptable because the batteries are causing it. Oh, and BTW, the more efficient the LED, the less heat.

I think we're slowing down in efficiency, the next hurdle is CRI and color temperature.

A big part of what's holding us back from small 1k lumen lights is the available battery technology, this is the highest hurdle I believe.

Beerwax--- Curt at Peak is now using heatpipes for his XM-L lights.

Yoda4561...that was a wonderful comment/explanation :thumbsup:

From just surfing the net and seeing what is available now that was not around two years ago, my feelings are that we are not going to see HUGE increases in Lumens, maybe up to a genuine 1000 lumens in a non-HID light.

But I think what we will see is a larger commercialization of the current crop of high-output LEDs, as production increases and prices drop accordingly.

A year from now you may be buying a 3 "D" Maglite with an Cree XM-L emitter in it that runs for 4 hours at 700 lumens and costs $29.
As tempting as it is to buy a lot more flashlights now , it may be that the prices will drop considerably.

Or so I hope...

In part, it also depends on what your needs are. If a XP-G meets those needs then the situation probably won't be all that different in a year or two.

If you need more and more light the way it's going at the moment you will get it in a bigger and bigger emitter. If what you want are small and bright lights then there may not be all that much change over the short term.

If you want a focused light for throw for instance most people are still using a XR-E even today. I think the XP-G is probably still the most efficient emitter (correct me if I'm wrong). It's only if you need 1,000 to 2,000 lumens that there may be some improvements but as was mentioned the practical aspects of the light have more to do with battery technology which improves slowly.

jabe1 said:

--- Curt at Peak is now using heatpipes for his XM-L lights.

Click to expand...

thx jabe1
wish i could speak Peak. what a website he has got.
heatpipes show promise. i mean we routinely pay hundreds for a light, once designed and built with a heatpipe it should be trouble free.

hi john galt
heat might be a problem for a while yet, while leds may be more efficient if batteries improve we will have more fuel to throw at the fire. im out of touch with batteries but the forces pushing battery research are greater than those pushing led development.

and yoda is right , if leds can crack something like the indoor lighting market lookout.