I just finished an interesting book Hubbert's Peak: A Guide to Oil Literacy .
Basically it tells of a oil supply forecasting technique that was used in the 50's that projected U.S. oil production would peak in the 70's and decline ever after. That is what happened (peaked in 1970...declining ever since).
Now the same technique has been applied to WORLD oil production. The forecast is that it will peak (and decline ever after) sometime starting in 2004 (most pessimistic) or in 2009 (most optimistic).
If this is correct (it was for U.S. production), AND...if countries like China and India are on the "up-cycle" of their energy use (they are)...then it seems like we are going to be in for a bumpy ride in just a few years as more and more societies on Earth struggle to control less and less oil while demand is steadily rising.
The question posed by my post is...will we choose our energy future (while we can), or will we just allow it to unfold without preparing for it?
Technologically speaking...we have a variety of alternatives. Wind power is coming on strong (unfortunately, the best equipment comes from Europe) but it needs public support for building transmission lines from the windy places (from west Texas on up thru the Dakotas) to the big city consumers of power. Also, one of the best places for wind is off shore like Nantucket Sound . Although, that site is being opposed by folks that think the wind farm will spoil the view (BTW...we have several large wind farms in Iowa. I find them beautiful to observe).
We also have BioDiesel (use in a VW EPA rated at 49 mpg Hwy) and Ethanol that are renewable liquid fuels that can be adopted now...with almost no change to our infrastructure. We can start with recycling the 3 billion gallons per year of waste restaurant fryer oil. The technology is already scaling up but additional public support will help it become more than a minor player...sooner.
Finally...we have energy efficiency and conservation. Since this is a lighting forum, it shouldn't surprise anyone that compact flourescent bulbs use about 1/4 of the energy of incandescents and last about 6 times longer. We all just need to pay attention to our energy usage and go for lights, appliances and vehicles (2004 Prius is as roomy as a Camry and gets 59 City & 51 Hwy) that stretch our energy as far as possible. Heck...it even saves us money to do so.
At the moment... we can choose. There is still time.
Before too terribly long though, our choices will diminish.
There will be a point where the world is using more and more of less and less oil. Those societies WILL fight for the resources they need. Just as we would (and will).
Basically it tells of a oil supply forecasting technique that was used in the 50's that projected U.S. oil production would peak in the 70's and decline ever after. That is what happened (peaked in 1970...declining ever since).
Now the same technique has been applied to WORLD oil production. The forecast is that it will peak (and decline ever after) sometime starting in 2004 (most pessimistic) or in 2009 (most optimistic).
If this is correct (it was for U.S. production), AND...if countries like China and India are on the "up-cycle" of their energy use (they are)...then it seems like we are going to be in for a bumpy ride in just a few years as more and more societies on Earth struggle to control less and less oil while demand is steadily rising.
The question posed by my post is...will we choose our energy future (while we can), or will we just allow it to unfold without preparing for it?
Technologically speaking...we have a variety of alternatives. Wind power is coming on strong (unfortunately, the best equipment comes from Europe) but it needs public support for building transmission lines from the windy places (from west Texas on up thru the Dakotas) to the big city consumers of power. Also, one of the best places for wind is off shore like Nantucket Sound . Although, that site is being opposed by folks that think the wind farm will spoil the view (BTW...we have several large wind farms in Iowa. I find them beautiful to observe).
We also have BioDiesel (use in a VW EPA rated at 49 mpg Hwy) and Ethanol that are renewable liquid fuels that can be adopted now...with almost no change to our infrastructure. We can start with recycling the 3 billion gallons per year of waste restaurant fryer oil. The technology is already scaling up but additional public support will help it become more than a minor player...sooner.
Finally...we have energy efficiency and conservation. Since this is a lighting forum, it shouldn't surprise anyone that compact flourescent bulbs use about 1/4 of the energy of incandescents and last about 6 times longer. We all just need to pay attention to our energy usage and go for lights, appliances and vehicles (2004 Prius is as roomy as a Camry and gets 59 City & 51 Hwy) that stretch our energy as far as possible. Heck...it even saves us money to do so.
At the moment... we can choose. There is still time.
Before too terribly long though, our choices will diminish.
There will be a point where the world is using more and more of less and less oil. Those societies WILL fight for the resources they need. Just as we would (and will).